NEO, ONT, and XLM - Comparing Terminal Shakeouts
Updated
Even though I've been leaning a little bearish on the market recently, since a lot of altcoins have broken their mid-term uptrends against Bitcoin or even headed back to major support levels...the USD value of many altcoins remains fairly bullish for now. NEO, for instance, is still above $10, despite drifting down to lower supports on the Bitcoin ratio. Much of the recent bullish action on NEO has occurred with massive volume. Meanwhile, our current selloff is occurring on low volume. This is exactly what happened with ONT before it went on its major run, where it tripled in USD value in several weeks. Additionally, the consolidation period after the November selloff has also occurred on higher volume than the drop.
A while ago, I posted an educational video about why I entered a long term position on ONT at $0.60/1700, and how I was able to spot accumulation (the link to that video is at the bottom). I also saw it occurring with ICX, which is why I posted the video on the ICXBTC pairing. Looking at the NEOBTC chart, we can see that it's printing a somewhat similar pattern with a similar volume profile as well, albeit on a much larger time scale. One of the major differences is that NEO made a higher high before dropping, which indicates that buyers do still exist for NEO. The rejection is a bit more concerning, which tells us that NEO isn't as strong as ONT, for now. Investors are concerned that NEO will continue to lag behind the rest of the market, as it has really fallen from its former glory. Here's the ONT chart from its recent bottom:
I'm presenting this comparison because I think there is still hope for NEO. It's certainly possible it heads to new lows, but the volume profile tells me there is some decent interest at these recent price levels. When ONT rose from $0.50, there wasn't really any major news to back it up. The market simply decided it was undervalued. I'm still holding my long term position on NEO (having bought it with my TRX back in early January). NEO has still performed better than TRX since then. Additionally, a similar "terminal shakeout" could be occurring with XLM, as that one is also drifting lower on decreasing volume after a period of huge volume accumulation:
Based on my chart, even if NEO is to rise again eventually, it still may need to fall to a lower support (indicated by the red X). After my previous analysis, NEO hit my first target between 2600 and 2700, but only to get rejected hard. The good news is, the 2400 resistance might be a bit weaker now, should NEO eventually get back up there.
Looking at the USD chart, you can see it looks much more bullish than the Bitcoin chart. We have some room to go down there, and we still haven't broken our uptrend on that pairing. If NEO is to rise eventually, it could take a while to break the $14 resistance, as it was previously major support (that was my target in USD value on the recent run up). The market needs time to accept current prices after such a severe decline, so some consolidation would definitely be welcomed. it would give a good opportunity for buyers to support a new floor for the crypto sphere. Of course, If the uptrend fails to hold, it won't be good for NEO, or most other altcoins for that matter.
Anyway, this is not financial advice. This is just a post I wanted to make, since I thought it was interesting. I hold both ONT and NEO, and I'm curious to see how they both continue to evolve.
-Victor Cobra
A while ago, I posted an educational video about why I entered a long term position on ONT at $0.60/1700, and how I was able to spot accumulation (the link to that video is at the bottom). I also saw it occurring with ICX, which is why I posted the video on the ICXBTC pairing. Looking at the NEOBTC chart, we can see that it's printing a somewhat similar pattern with a similar volume profile as well, albeit on a much larger time scale. One of the major differences is that NEO made a higher high before dropping, which indicates that buyers do still exist for NEO. The rejection is a bit more concerning, which tells us that NEO isn't as strong as ONT, for now. Investors are concerned that NEO will continue to lag behind the rest of the market, as it has really fallen from its former glory. Here's the ONT chart from its recent bottom:
I'm presenting this comparison because I think there is still hope for NEO. It's certainly possible it heads to new lows, but the volume profile tells me there is some decent interest at these recent price levels. When ONT rose from $0.50, there wasn't really any major news to back it up. The market simply decided it was undervalued. I'm still holding my long term position on NEO (having bought it with my TRX back in early January). NEO has still performed better than TRX since then. Additionally, a similar "terminal shakeout" could be occurring with XLM, as that one is also drifting lower on decreasing volume after a period of huge volume accumulation:
Based on my chart, even if NEO is to rise again eventually, it still may need to fall to a lower support (indicated by the red X). After my previous analysis, NEO hit my first target between 2600 and 2700, but only to get rejected hard. The good news is, the 2400 resistance might be a bit weaker now, should NEO eventually get back up there.
Looking at the USD chart, you can see it looks much more bullish than the Bitcoin chart. We have some room to go down there, and we still haven't broken our uptrend on that pairing. If NEO is to rise eventually, it could take a while to break the $14 resistance, as it was previously major support (that was my target in USD value on the recent run up). The market needs time to accept current prices after such a severe decline, so some consolidation would definitely be welcomed. it would give a good opportunity for buyers to support a new floor for the crypto sphere. Of course, If the uptrend fails to hold, it won't be good for NEO, or most other altcoins for that matter.
Anyway, this is not financial advice. This is just a post I wanted to make, since I thought it was interesting. I hold both ONT and NEO, and I'm curious to see how they both continue to evolve.
-Victor Cobra
Note
As I suggested could happen, NEO has hit my bottom target right on the money and has bounced a little. Oscillators are showing us that this could be a bottom, so one could enter a long position here. The shakeout idea may indeed play out, if NEO can head quickly back up towards the 2400 area. Of course, a break below this current support would be very bad. Note
Not looking good for NEO. Still looks good on the USD chart. I guess we'll see what happens. It's possible we head to new lows, unfortunately, but this still has characteristics of the shakeout that came before the ONT rise.
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