Long

Has NEO Found Bottom?

Updated

In my first NEO analysis, I speculated that we would have to fall down to my "Last Chance Buy Zone." We've done exactly that, and have since bounced pretty hard. This was a substantial drop from when I first posted about NEO, when it was still around $16. On the Bitcoin ratio, NEO made a lower low in the 1600 area, but then quickly rallied back above previous support. This, to me, is a bullish signal. NEO seemed to be in danger of dying out, but we found buyers right in that major support zone, so we may indeed continue up from here, even if it's a slow rise.

Here's the NEO BTC chart, where we are right up against converging diagonal and horizontal resistance.

Potential short-term setup:

BUY:
$5-8

SELL:
$13-20

STOP LOSS: I'd say below 1800 on the BTC ratio, if you can stomach some medium-term losses.
Obviously longer term targets can easily be back in the triple digits. Link to previous NEO analysis at bottom.

This is not financial advice. I'm not a professional. You choose what to do with your money.

-Victor Cobra

Note

By the way, if the bear market continues for a while, NEO can slide back down and stagnate in that support area for accumulation. I don't think it's likely to go below the bottom of that green zone (between $3-4).

Trade active

Just entered a trade at $7.60 last night (0.002030 on the NEOBTC ratio) with a stop loss at 1944. I saw the bull pennant forming and decided to buy some with my TRX profits.

Note

Scaled in for a larger position and moved my STOP LOSS up to 0.002019 BTC

Note

We ideally need to hold above this light blue uptrend line (below). It currently sits just barely below 0.002100. NEO needs to rally a bit higher to confirm the start of a bullish trend, but I entered a couple of positions with a fairly conservative stop loss, so I see this has medium risk, high reward.

Note

Really needs to get above $9.50 ish to form an inverse head and shoulders pattern. The first target would then be around $13.

Note

The only problem I see in the market so far, is that there has been no follow-through on Bitcoin yet. So either this is a bull trap, or alts are simply making the first move. Time will tell. That's why it's important to exercise risk management.

Note

Just in case, I moved up my STOP LOSS to 2085. If all goes well, as you can see on the BTC chart (which looks much stronger), we've broken out of resistance and are in the process of forming an inverse head and shoulders bottom with a first potential target in the red zone.

Note

Looks like we've got liftoff ; )

Note

Going to adjust my stop loss again. Bitcoin has broken out, so we may see some erratic moves on alts. In Neo's case, we could in theory extend our consolidation and head down to the support in red, outlined here:

Note

Rejected again at the top of this potential wedge. We've formed a 4H higher low....for now. The market is actually showing some warning signs that we've reached a top. Buyers haven't eagerly stepped in, so bears may take advantage. I warned about this on my Bitcoin chart. If you're a day trader, probably good to set a stop loss. Or even if you're invested long term. We're seeing some nutty, hard to predict price action today. I took half my new NEO stash and put it off the exchange for long term (the NEON wallet is great, by the way). I'm seeing that as "profit" from TRX. The other half I may use to trade, and sell if this starts looking worse. NEO has been one of the weaker alts during the bear market, and it might take a very long time to see any new price appreciation. We might have to venture back into the buy zone again (below $6.50). Confidence must slowly be regained and the market is clearly in a fragile state.

Note

We've reached our first major resistance area after breaking upwards. I'm starting to feel a bit better about the market, since even though things looked really shaky yesterday, bulls manage to step in and defend 3900 for Bitcoin, and Neo has pushed higher. TRX has increased roughly the same amount as NEO since I swapped, so it hasn't been a terrible idea so far, even though I might have exited a little early. Still learning. The market still looks unsure though. Some alts are continuing up (NEO, LTC, TRX, etc.), but Bitcoin doesn't look great.

Note

We've also reached a major resistance on the USD chart. A break beyond here would put us in mid-double digits. If we fail though, it's possible we slide back down to the $5-6 accumulation area.

Note

Still waiting for our next move in Bitcoin, up or down, but it's encouraging to see NEO consolidating just below resistance, without falling back quickly to previous lows (as it has done in recent months when confronted with resistance).

Note

Pretty big rejection here. If Bitcoin can't push higher soon, we can assume a bigger pullback.

Note

We ideally need to push back above the previous low from before the big selloff (around 2340) to continue bullish momentum.

Note

Interestingly, the last few days we've seen NEO break upwards from what otherwise might have seemed like tops during the bear market. This definitely indicates some sort of trend/sentiment change, hence why I finally scaled into a position in NEO after waiting several months. This normally would seem like a top pattern, but we're not showing any signs of real weakness yet. Similarly, before we broke out above 2200, we seemed to be retracing the entire pump, which normally would have been bearish.

VictorCobra

Also on:

Related publications

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.