Can Netflix Reach One Trillion Dollars? The Market Already Bets on It
By Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades
Netflix, the giant of digital entertainment, continues to cement its position as the global benchmark in streaming. With a market capitalization exceeding $515 billion, the platform is halfway to the trillion-dollar milestone, but more and more analysts and fund managers see this target as achievable in the medium term.
Strategies That Make the Difference
After the boom during the pandemic, Netflix faced fierce competition in its quest to gain and retain subscribers. The company responded with key measures: cracking down on password sharing, raising prices across its plans, and introducing an ad-supported subscription tier, an initiative that has significantly boosted performance metrics.
Thanks to this hybrid strategy, the company now boasts over 94 million monthly active users, many of whom fall within the highly desirable 18–34 age demographic, a segment with high long-term retention potential and strong appeal to advertisers.
Moreover, the platform has enhanced its advertising segmentation tools, enabling brands to reach their target audiences more precisely. Combined with Netflix’s data-driven content production model, this places the company in a highly competitive position compared to its industry peers.
Fundamental Analysis: Sustainable Growth and Competitive Edge
From a fundamental standpoint, Netflix is in a strong position with clear growth drivers:
• Revenue and earnings expansion: In the first half of 2025, the company reported over 15% year-on-year revenue growth and nearly 27% net income growth.
• Free cash flow on the rise: Both internal and external projections indicate that free cash flow (FCF) could double within five years, providing room for further content investment without increasing debt.
• Data-driven competitive advantage: Advanced analytics allow Netflix to optimize original content production based on viewing patterns, generating shows and films with higher success potential.
• Scalable model with increasing margins: The rising ARPU (average revenue per user) in the ad-supported tier suggests Netflix could boost margins without significantly raising operating costs.
• Low debt levels: With manageable net debt and healthy leverage ratios, the company retains financial flexibility for continued organic growth or share buybacks.
Analyst Ratings
According to TipRanks, 38 analysts currently cover Netflix stock. Of those, 29 rate it a Buy and 9 a Hold, with an average price target of $1,255.76.
• Highest price target: $1,600 – Jeffrey Wlodarczak (Pivotal Research)
• Lowest price target: $950
• JPMorgan rating: Hold, with a target of $1,220 – Doug Anmuth
These figures reflect solid market confidence in Netflix’s upward trajectory, though they also suggest that some of the optimism is already priced in.
Technical Analysis: Signs of Strength
Netflix closed Tuesday at $1,278.59, staying above key medium- and long-term resistance levels. The 50-period moving average has remained below the price since mid-April, reinforcing the bullish trend. The RSI is in overbought territory (71.62%), and although the MACD is no longer positive, momentum remains strong in the short term.
This is further supported by a Point of Control (POC) around the $985 level, which served as the support base for the previous upward leg. These mixed signals suggest that a consolidation phase could occur before the stock resumes a stronger upward movement.
The current upward channel has remained intact, pushing prices toward the upper bound, where a retest of limits is likely. A sideways phase between $1,282.57 and $1,400 may precede a new breakout attempt.
Conclusion
Netflix has shown exceptional adaptability in capitalizing on shifts in digital consumer behavior. With a solid financial foundation, sustainable growth, and unique competitive advantages in data and content, the company has a real shot at reaching a one-trillion-dollar valuation. Time and execution will ultimately decide whether that goal is achieved—but the groundwork is already in place.
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The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk.
By Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades
Netflix, the giant of digital entertainment, continues to cement its position as the global benchmark in streaming. With a market capitalization exceeding $515 billion, the platform is halfway to the trillion-dollar milestone, but more and more analysts and fund managers see this target as achievable in the medium term.
Strategies That Make the Difference
After the boom during the pandemic, Netflix faced fierce competition in its quest to gain and retain subscribers. The company responded with key measures: cracking down on password sharing, raising prices across its plans, and introducing an ad-supported subscription tier, an initiative that has significantly boosted performance metrics.
Thanks to this hybrid strategy, the company now boasts over 94 million monthly active users, many of whom fall within the highly desirable 18–34 age demographic, a segment with high long-term retention potential and strong appeal to advertisers.
Moreover, the platform has enhanced its advertising segmentation tools, enabling brands to reach their target audiences more precisely. Combined with Netflix’s data-driven content production model, this places the company in a highly competitive position compared to its industry peers.
Fundamental Analysis: Sustainable Growth and Competitive Edge
From a fundamental standpoint, Netflix is in a strong position with clear growth drivers:
• Revenue and earnings expansion: In the first half of 2025, the company reported over 15% year-on-year revenue growth and nearly 27% net income growth.
• Free cash flow on the rise: Both internal and external projections indicate that free cash flow (FCF) could double within five years, providing room for further content investment without increasing debt.
• Data-driven competitive advantage: Advanced analytics allow Netflix to optimize original content production based on viewing patterns, generating shows and films with higher success potential.
• Scalable model with increasing margins: The rising ARPU (average revenue per user) in the ad-supported tier suggests Netflix could boost margins without significantly raising operating costs.
• Low debt levels: With manageable net debt and healthy leverage ratios, the company retains financial flexibility for continued organic growth or share buybacks.
Analyst Ratings
According to TipRanks, 38 analysts currently cover Netflix stock. Of those, 29 rate it a Buy and 9 a Hold, with an average price target of $1,255.76.
• Highest price target: $1,600 – Jeffrey Wlodarczak (Pivotal Research)
• Lowest price target: $950
• JPMorgan rating: Hold, with a target of $1,220 – Doug Anmuth
These figures reflect solid market confidence in Netflix’s upward trajectory, though they also suggest that some of the optimism is already priced in.
Technical Analysis: Signs of Strength
Netflix closed Tuesday at $1,278.59, staying above key medium- and long-term resistance levels. The 50-period moving average has remained below the price since mid-April, reinforcing the bullish trend. The RSI is in overbought territory (71.62%), and although the MACD is no longer positive, momentum remains strong in the short term.
This is further supported by a Point of Control (POC) around the $985 level, which served as the support base for the previous upward leg. These mixed signals suggest that a consolidation phase could occur before the stock resumes a stronger upward movement.
The current upward channel has remained intact, pushing prices toward the upper bound, where a retest of limits is likely. A sideways phase between $1,282.57 and $1,400 may precede a new breakout attempt.
Conclusion
Netflix has shown exceptional adaptability in capitalizing on shifts in digital consumer behavior. With a solid financial foundation, sustainable growth, and unique competitive advantages in data and content, the company has a real shot at reaching a one-trillion-dollar valuation. Time and execution will ultimately decide whether that goal is achieved—but the groundwork is already in place.
*******************************************************************************************
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.