MAYbe to wait and see till the trend has been established
Updated
So since 6 April 2021 until a week or so ago the price of Natural Gas has increased basically by 220%
October Highs
The high for 2021 happen on the 6 October @ 6.30 USD shortly thereafter the price of Natural Gas decline by around about 40% between end October and begining of December 2021 as indicated by red downward arrow on the chart
December Consolidation Phase I
During the month of December 2021 the first Consolidation Phase occured as indicated in dark green labelled Consolidation Phase I.
January Extreme Volatility and Short Squeeze
After which a period of extreme volatility ocuured during the month of January 2022 which endured till Mid February of 2022
which also included as Short squeeze at the end of January 2022 for the winter contract with NG reaching a price level of 7.34 USD if I stand corrected.
Feb - March Consolidation Phase II and Base Support
This month was also the start of the formation of a base support level between 3.60 USD and 4 USD as indicated by a green line labelled Trendline I. Now between the second half of February and first half of March 2022 a second Consolidation Phase occured as indicated in dark red labelled Consolidation Phase II at around the price of 4.80 USD
April Bull Run and Exhaustion
Since then till the 6 April 2022 a Bull Run occured as indicated by the light blue arrow and it is at this point in time we revisted the level we have reached 6 months prior on the 6 October 2021.
After that the exhaustion phase of the bull run showed itself in a classsical Elliott Wave fashion and reaching a peak on Easter Monday at the psychological level of 8 USD.
Since the we are in a downward trend and we are at critical level because if the bulls do not breach the 6.70 USD level and maintain above 6.80 USD by 28 April when the next EIA Weekly Gas Storage Report comes out
then the bears will most likely be in control and we might breach 6.30 on the lowside and revist 5.30 USD within the first week of May 2022 or even 4.80 USD which is a 40% decline in price.
BUT If the psychological level of 7 USD is breached and maintained till 7.30 USD I would consider entering the trade but until then it's time to wait and see.
October Highs
The high for 2021 happen on the 6 October @ 6.30 USD shortly thereafter the price of Natural Gas decline by around about 40% between end October and begining of December 2021 as indicated by red downward arrow on the chart
December Consolidation Phase I
During the month of December 2021 the first Consolidation Phase occured as indicated in dark green labelled Consolidation Phase I.
January Extreme Volatility and Short Squeeze
After which a period of extreme volatility ocuured during the month of January 2022 which endured till Mid February of 2022
which also included as Short squeeze at the end of January 2022 for the winter contract with NG reaching a price level of 7.34 USD if I stand corrected.
Feb - March Consolidation Phase II and Base Support
This month was also the start of the formation of a base support level between 3.60 USD and 4 USD as indicated by a green line labelled Trendline I. Now between the second half of February and first half of March 2022 a second Consolidation Phase occured as indicated in dark red labelled Consolidation Phase II at around the price of 4.80 USD
April Bull Run and Exhaustion
Since then till the 6 April 2022 a Bull Run occured as indicated by the light blue arrow and it is at this point in time we revisted the level we have reached 6 months prior on the 6 October 2021.
After that the exhaustion phase of the bull run showed itself in a classsical Elliott Wave fashion and reaching a peak on Easter Monday at the psychological level of 8 USD.
Since the we are in a downward trend and we are at critical level because if the bulls do not breach the 6.70 USD level and maintain above 6.80 USD by 28 April when the next EIA Weekly Gas Storage Report comes out
then the bears will most likely be in control and we might breach 6.30 on the lowside and revist 5.30 USD within the first week of May 2022 or even 4.80 USD which is a 40% decline in price.
BUT If the psychological level of 7 USD is breached and maintained till 7.30 USD I would consider entering the trade but until then it's time to wait and see.
Note
Alright so it is Monday the 2 May 2022 and since my last TA on the 25th April a few things has happened. The price of NG has rallied quite a bit even maintaing above the 6.80 USD mark even breaching the psychological level of 7 USD and going about just touching the next psychological level of 7.50 USD done, What a show that was! During all of this the price of NG seems to be doing a double test to the bottom @ 6.80 USD mark and a double test to the top @ 7.40 USD mark which means it seems to be rangebound going through a consolidation phase for th week ahead before the market decides to move higher or lower depending on the various fundamentals and sentiments.
Now I did mentioned mention in my previous TA that I will enter the trade once 7.30 is breached but since I mentioned the consolidation phase above. I will wait until the 6.85 USD mark or the 5 May 2022 when the next weekly EIA storage report is released, which ever comes first before I cofirm my case.
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