Natural gas (NGAS) is coming to a technical floor per Elliott Wave count as well as predictive/forecasting model.
WAVE ANALYSIS:
- ELLIOTT WAVE:
Price action in this 8-hour chart illustrates a recent down-swing consistent with an Bearish Elliott Wave impulse, whose internal construction suggests a near completion, as price appears to negotiate a 5th wave conclusion.
- WOLFE WAVES:
Standing in the background appears to be a Wolfe Wave pattern, engulfing the entire Elliott Wave construct. In its most basic form, Bill Wolfe's Wolfe Waves requires that:
1 - Waves 1-3 and 2-4 be declining in the same direction (here: down) 2 - Waves 2-4 be converging and that: 3 - Point-4 be situated between Points 1 and 2, although this would only belong to the strictest definition, and these are empirical observations, as there is no formal literature from its author on this advanced pattern.
PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS & FORECASTING:
The predictive/forecasting model is calling for a bottom-most tolerable support as the "Lox" target (i.e.: extreme low value), defined as:
- TG-Lox = 2.542 - 28 JAN 2015
Model also offers the following ensuing bullish NUMERICAL targets:
1 - TG-1 = 3.285 - 28 JAN 2015
and
2 - TG-2 = 3.798 - 28 JAN 2015
... as well as this top-most NOMINAL target:
- TG-Hi = 4.343 - 28 JAN 2015
OVERALL:
An interim decline should serve to complete a set of background geometries. However, a reaction to the top-side is likely to prop price up to the defined targets. Directional indicator will remain NEUTRAL until this last fifth wave concludes.
Stay tuned,
David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Denver, Colorado - USA
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