Natural Gas (Henry Hub) Forecast for May 8–15, 2025
1️⃣ Expected Storage Report (EIA, May 9)
An inventory increase of 95–105 Bcf is expected. This is slightly above average but considered acceptable by the market.
If the build is below 95 Bcf — prices may accelerate upward. Above 105 Bcf — a short-term correction is possible.
2️⃣ Storage levels (EIA)
4–5% below the 5-year average, creating a moderately bullish backdrop.
3️⃣ End-of-season storage forecast
A 3% deficit below the 5-year norm is projected.
4️⃣ Production
High (105 Bcf/day), remains the main bearish factor.
5️⃣ LNG Exports
At record levels, supporting demand and prices.
6️⃣ Weather
Warm, increasing cooling demand.
7️⃣ COT (trader positions)
Short positions are decreasing, long positions increasing — a moderately bullish signal.
8️⃣ Technical Analysis
Price holds above the 200-day EMA. Key support at $3.50, resistance at $3.85–$4.00.
9️⃣ Candlestick Analysis (daily chart)
A bullish candle with a long body confirms buyer control.
🔟 Market Sentiment
Buyers remain active, funds cautiously adding long positions.
2-hour chart
A bullish flag pattern remains intact.
5-minute chart
The uptrend continues with higher highs and higher lows.
Conclusion:
The market shows a moderately bullish trend.
Expected price range for next week — $3.65–$3.90, with potential to test $4.00.
Chance of a drop below $3.40 is minimal (≤30%).
1️⃣ Expected Storage Report (EIA, May 9)
An inventory increase of 95–105 Bcf is expected. This is slightly above average but considered acceptable by the market.
If the build is below 95 Bcf — prices may accelerate upward. Above 105 Bcf — a short-term correction is possible.
2️⃣ Storage levels (EIA)
4–5% below the 5-year average, creating a moderately bullish backdrop.
3️⃣ End-of-season storage forecast
A 3% deficit below the 5-year norm is projected.
4️⃣ Production
High (105 Bcf/day), remains the main bearish factor.
5️⃣ LNG Exports
At record levels, supporting demand and prices.
6️⃣ Weather
Warm, increasing cooling demand.
7️⃣ COT (trader positions)
Short positions are decreasing, long positions increasing — a moderately bullish signal.
8️⃣ Technical Analysis
Price holds above the 200-day EMA. Key support at $3.50, resistance at $3.85–$4.00.
9️⃣ Candlestick Analysis (daily chart)
A bullish candle with a long body confirms buyer control.
🔟 Market Sentiment
Buyers remain active, funds cautiously adding long positions.
2-hour chart
A bullish flag pattern remains intact.
5-minute chart
The uptrend continues with higher highs and higher lows.
Conclusion:
The market shows a moderately bullish trend.
Expected price range for next week — $3.65–$3.90, with potential to test $4.00.
Chance of a drop below $3.40 is minimal (≤30%).
Trade closed: target reached
Note
Shorts from 3.80The 1-week chart is a signal of a price correction at the upper limit of the channel
, COT speculators have sharply begun to reduce their longs - a tendency to decline.
the weather is neutral and consumption growth is not expected
Хочешь хороших денег – умей выжидать
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Хочешь хороших денег – умей выжидать
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.