Trade Log NIFTY May 20

My trades Today

1. I sold 8900 PUT today as market opened with positive bias. When It faced rejection at 9000, I squared off the position. I was profited because IV dropped.
2. Then there was a consolidation in tight range. Since there was no follow through on short side after rejection, I was confident of selling credit spread. I'll let it expire/ close tomorrow.
3. Then on breakout of the range, I bought CALL and squared it off near EOD.

In my Trade log post for May 19, I had said

1. Global news not helping, NIFTY is showing strength, but BANK NIFTY bearish . On BANK NIFTY chart, 17150 - 16700 is a support zone . This will be second touch of the zone, hence it can build support here. That means 8800 can be touched again, or even breached.
2. I don't expect NIFTY to go below 8600.
3. Also, I don't think 8800 is a bottom, on next touch, it may not hold, at least breached once.

In this, point 2 is certainly confirmed. For point 3 I think there are chances that 8800 may be bottom for near term and pullback rally starts from here.

Observations about price action today

1.NIFTY gained in the first few hours. It maintained the gains and consolidated in tight range. And then gained even more in second session. Closed 2.11% up.
2.BANK NIFTY supported 2.11%
3.VIX down 9%+
4.Advance Decline ratio 42 to 8.
5. NIFTY formed higher low and higher high. BANK NIFTY did not form new low.

For next 2 days,

1. I think, some kind of sustainable pullback may have started. It needs confirmation by holding up tomorrow.
2. Another confirmation signal is BANK NIFTY makes higher high. For confirmation of bottom, I would wait till Friday EOD.
3. Obviously, this pullback does not change long term picture right now. But now intra-day bias is clearly shifted to bullish side.
4. VIX dropping dramatically at 8800 support level, means NIFTY may make 8800 as base for this pullback rally.


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