Nifty 50 IndexShort
Riding the Correction: Unlocking NIFTY’s Next Chapter!
Updated
Dear Traders,
I hope this message finds you well in your trading endeavors and personal pursuits. I am excited to share a compelling opportunity with you through a new NIFTY analysis that sheds light on the continuation of the market shift. The recent upward movement & the following correction in the market have unfolded as anticipated. Over the past two months, my analysis has consistently pointed to an expected correction due to market overvaluation and distinct completion patterns.
Technical Analysis Overview:
There are three potential scenarios for the ongoing trend, ranked based on their likelihood of occurring.
Scenario I:
The move initiated from 20 MAR’23 – 27 SEPT’24 (16,828.35 – 26277.35) has spanned over 80 weeks (18M) and indicates a significant completion of wave patterns, suggesting an imminent correction. See the visual representation of the trend lines and corresponding fib retracement levels here:
The correlation between static supports can be observed around 23,893.70 and 21,181.45. This correction is expected to be visible within a 3-month timeframe.
Potential support levels include
S – I: 24,893 ~ 24,753 ~ 24,430 levels,
S – II: 24,050 ~24,000 levels and
S – III: 23,683 levels.
*These values are not actual but just levels
The correction might extend to deeper levels (22,664 & 21,550) as the market progresses.
Time resistances are anticipated on 09th OCT, 17th OCT, and 30th OCT for all probable scenarios.
---------------
Scenario II:
The move from 26 OCT’23 – 27 SEPT’24 (18,837.85 – 26,277.35) has completed mid-way and is expected to continue after this correction, potentially reaching unprecedented levels. Find the visual representation of this move with trend lines & fib retracements here:
The range of this move is limited to the monthly timeframe, indicating the completion of 1 year from the start of this sub-trend.
Potential support levels include,
S – I: 24,525 ~ 24,378 levels,
S – II: 23,900 ~ 23,893.70 levels and
S – III: 23,450 levels.
---------------
Scenario III:
The move from 04 JUN’24 – 27 SEPT’24 (21,121.45 – 26,277.35) has almost completed its half journey and is facing a correction before extending its uptrend by a few more waves. While this scenario has the lowest probability compared to the others, it is essential to consider its potential impact on the current trend.
The pictorial representation can be seen here:
Further details are not added as the market actions till now does not validate this probability.
---------------
Other Influential Factors:
Geo-political tensions and concerns regarding escalation have historically preceded corrections prior to the US presidential elections, indicating a prevailing bearish sentiment. Tensions in the Middle East have also contributed to the market plunge, albeit not solely responsible for it. Additionally, the FED's likely rate cuts have been influenced by the upcoming US elections, and SEBI's regulatory actions aim to curb over-optimism and maintain market neutrality.
Important Dates to Remember:
Mark your calendars for OCT 9th (RBI interest rate decision @ 10AM) and OCT 10th (US inflation reports).
---------------
Final Verdict:
While the scenarios are meticulously laid out, the selection of the valid scenario remains a work in progress. We are eagerly awaiting further cues from the market and will provide updates as they unfold. However, one thing remains certain – the current trend has reversed (at least for the mentioned time frames). Therefore, adopting a bearish stance could prove to be profitable.
---------------
Strategy:
Considering the current market conditions, adopting a bearish stance seems prudent, especially levels around 24,450 ~ 24,000 are to be tested. Keep a close watch on the market and stay informed for potential opportunities.
Disclaimer:
Before concluding, I must underscore that the insights shared are based on my analysis. It is imperative for you to conduct your research and, if necessary, consult with a financial advisor before making any trading decisions. The dynamic nature of financial markets necessitates that your strategies align with your financial goals and risk tolerance.
Fellow Traders,
Countless hours of dedication and effort have gone into creating this valuable analytical resource. If you find it useful, I humbly ask for your support by boosting the idea and following me (updates will be made via this post, new post & through minds). Your comments and thoughts on this idea are highly valued, and I am committed to engaging with each one personally.
Thank you for investing your time in reading this article,
Your readership is greatly appreciated.
Wishing you profitable and joyful trading!!!
I hope this message finds you well in your trading endeavors and personal pursuits. I am excited to share a compelling opportunity with you through a new NIFTY analysis that sheds light on the continuation of the market shift. The recent upward movement & the following correction in the market have unfolded as anticipated. Over the past two months, my analysis has consistently pointed to an expected correction due to market overvaluation and distinct completion patterns.
Technical Analysis Overview:
There are three potential scenarios for the ongoing trend, ranked based on their likelihood of occurring.
Scenario I:
The move initiated from 20 MAR’23 – 27 SEPT’24 (16,828.35 – 26277.35) has spanned over 80 weeks (18M) and indicates a significant completion of wave patterns, suggesting an imminent correction. See the visual representation of the trend lines and corresponding fib retracement levels here:
The correlation between static supports can be observed around 23,893.70 and 21,181.45. This correction is expected to be visible within a 3-month timeframe.
Potential support levels include
S – I: 24,893 ~ 24,753 ~ 24,430 levels,
S – II: 24,050 ~24,000 levels and
S – III: 23,683 levels.
*These values are not actual but just levels
The correction might extend to deeper levels (22,664 & 21,550) as the market progresses.
Time resistances are anticipated on 09th OCT, 17th OCT, and 30th OCT for all probable scenarios.
---------------
Scenario II:
The move from 26 OCT’23 – 27 SEPT’24 (18,837.85 – 26,277.35) has completed mid-way and is expected to continue after this correction, potentially reaching unprecedented levels. Find the visual representation of this move with trend lines & fib retracements here:
The range of this move is limited to the monthly timeframe, indicating the completion of 1 year from the start of this sub-trend.
Potential support levels include,
S – I: 24,525 ~ 24,378 levels,
S – II: 23,900 ~ 23,893.70 levels and
S – III: 23,450 levels.
---------------
Scenario III:
The move from 04 JUN’24 – 27 SEPT’24 (21,121.45 – 26,277.35) has almost completed its half journey and is facing a correction before extending its uptrend by a few more waves. While this scenario has the lowest probability compared to the others, it is essential to consider its potential impact on the current trend.
The pictorial representation can be seen here:
Further details are not added as the market actions till now does not validate this probability.
---------------
Other Influential Factors:
Geo-political tensions and concerns regarding escalation have historically preceded corrections prior to the US presidential elections, indicating a prevailing bearish sentiment. Tensions in the Middle East have also contributed to the market plunge, albeit not solely responsible for it. Additionally, the FED's likely rate cuts have been influenced by the upcoming US elections, and SEBI's regulatory actions aim to curb over-optimism and maintain market neutrality.
Important Dates to Remember:
Mark your calendars for OCT 9th (RBI interest rate decision @ 10AM) and OCT 10th (US inflation reports).
---------------
Final Verdict:
While the scenarios are meticulously laid out, the selection of the valid scenario remains a work in progress. We are eagerly awaiting further cues from the market and will provide updates as they unfold. However, one thing remains certain – the current trend has reversed (at least for the mentioned time frames). Therefore, adopting a bearish stance could prove to be profitable.
---------------
Strategy:
Considering the current market conditions, adopting a bearish stance seems prudent, especially levels around 24,450 ~ 24,000 are to be tested. Keep a close watch on the market and stay informed for potential opportunities.
Disclaimer:
Before concluding, I must underscore that the insights shared are based on my analysis. It is imperative for you to conduct your research and, if necessary, consult with a financial advisor before making any trading decisions. The dynamic nature of financial markets necessitates that your strategies align with your financial goals and risk tolerance.
Fellow Traders,
Countless hours of dedication and effort have gone into creating this valuable analytical resource. If you find it useful, I humbly ask for your support by boosting the idea and following me (updates will be made via this post, new post & through minds). Your comments and thoughts on this idea are highly valued, and I am committed to engaging with each one personally.
Thank you for investing your time in reading this article,
Your readership is greatly appreciated.
Wishing you profitable and joyful trading!!!
Note
Today's support will be as follows,
S I - 25873.65 ~ 25753.15
S II - 25473.08
on the contrary intraday resistance will be at 25,363.38 ~ 25485.05
Note
RBI MPC @ 10AM
Expect the market to rise further & the chances of testing 24,473 is higher for today(irrespective of any early gains)
Watch for 25,131 & 25,266 ~25,401
Note
As the market progressed & the revised analysis states that the Scenario I alone is valid & others are not in consideration, anymore...Note
The market is in freefall to test 24,050 levels & the same can be achieved in a span of a single or 3 wave (3 is more likely).
The ongoing wave's support will likely be at 24,260 ~ 24,240 levels, which can initiate the intermittent correction for a day & again back in track to test 24,050
Trade active
The ongoing move is just a retracement to the original down trend, can test 24,850 ~ 24,900 levels before resuming the fall to much deeper levels (remember the same is expected to mark its presence in 3M time frame)Trade closed manually
The analysis is utmost correct, except for the timeframe 3M, there is a final move in the sequence & after which the correction in 3M timeframe will follow
The market is expected to test previous highs & close above that to conclude this intermediate move in the sequence.
Stay tuned for further updates
Best Regards,
WDG_Dinesh_Gengarajan
Full-Time Analyst, Trader & Trainer
For learning, visit Wiz-Brains Online Trading Academy
Unlock free courses and face the markets with confidence! @ wiz.leadbrains.com
WDG_Dinesh_Gengarajan
Full-Time Analyst, Trader & Trainer
For learning, visit Wiz-Brains Online Trading Academy
Unlock free courses and face the markets with confidence! @ wiz.leadbrains.com
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