In my trade log for Yesterday, I had said
1. NIFTY has started consolidation. I am going to assume consolidation at least tomorrow morning session till noon.
2. In this consolidation, there are two possibilities - 1. Simple dip 2. Formation of range couple of days. To understand and confirm one of these we need conclusive break of last breakout level 10160-10180, preferably on hourly chart. If this happens NIFTY can also head to last swing low of 9950 in the process.
3. I am inclined to believe, there will be range formation.
4. NIFTY traders are uncertain about 10300 Level. There will be couple of attempts around that level.
5. Broader market performing well, can be taken as positive or negative. If bad quality stocks performing today, then it could be some retail inflows, which may signify not much upside left in the current swing. But these kind of indicators are at the best very weak indicators.
From these points, I feel confident
1. NIFTY is in consolidation. It is likely to see some downside tomorrow as well.
2. This is not a simple dip, This is likely to form range.
3. 10300 is firm resistance, any upside is possible only above that.
4. NIFTY is now searching for lower end of the range - first candidate for that is last swing low 9950.
My trades today:
1. Morning session, I reluctantly took long, but covered it quickly on first sign of weakness.
2. Then I sold 10100 call, which turned out to clean trending trade. I closed the same around end of the day.
Observations for the day
1. The cut on NIFTY little more deeper for consolidation. NIFTY closed 1.19% down.
2. BANK NIFTY closed -2.18% down.
3. INDIA VIX closed 1.8% up.
4. Advance Decline on negative side. 13 advances to 27 Declines. Broader market little better with 757 to 1135.
5. RELIANCE market leader for the current swing showed loss of momentum.
6. Option Data showing resistance shifting at lower levels 10100.
My readings for tomorrow
1. Not much changed in my view. I need to wait and see how NIFTY reacts to 9950 level. Overall I still treat this as consolidation.
2. One thing for sure, that the breakout of 10170 is now negated and 10333 is strong resistance zone.
3. Idea would be to keep shorts till NIFTY closes above 9280.
4. As long as 9800 level is protected, I'll continue to believe this is just a consolidation.