Complete Nifty Analysis : When Bulls will rest ?
Updated
Lets do an analysis on Nifty and how its movement will be in coming days.
As we look with Eagle's view ( Daily ), Nifty has been bearish from Feb'15 to Mar'16. For an year Nifty has been completely bearish Trend.
Some companies posting good performance results has driven Nifty to current levels from the lows of 6700's. But tats not only reason for recent bull run. Better Monsoon expectations, Federal reserve creating buzz about raise of interest rates and postponing everytime, Foreign investors faith in Indian economy and buying @ lower levels of market - all contributed to this bull run.
But how long this Nifty Bull can run without break ? Well, in my view ( I can be wrong also) The markets are just waiting for some reason to tumble down to retest 7500-7700 zone. But we should also note that there is very strong resistance turned support zone in 7900-8000's which is difficult to break bcos psychological level too.
If we look on technical side, there are 3 Scenario's I have noticed :
Scenario 1 : (Fibs)
Though for short term we have seen bull-run, we haven't breached 61.8% Fib levels of Larger swing move & 78.6% Fib levels of Fib 2 in same area, if you notice keenly Nifty faced resistance around those fib levels and dropped to 8170 from 8300. 130 point drops are normal but the area where it turned down is Fib levels which makes the case interesting.
Fib 2 drawn on smaller move and its 50% Fib levels & 61.8% of Fib 1 levels drop in the resistance turned support which is 8000's. Markets can retest this 8000, before continuing its bull run.
Scenario 2 : (Trend Lines)
Nifty retested trendlines 3 times in this current upward move and another retest is also possible which falls again in same 8000 levels (marked no.6 in chart). But have you noticed the harmonic play there ?
Scenario 3 : (Harmonics)
There is Bearish 3 Drive Pattern formation but everyone uses different ratio's so its upto you to decide on that.
Similarly, ABCD pattern formation again depends on how you use your ratio's.
Overall, Nifty touching 8000 seems imminent but if it breaks that zone its all together different story which we will discuss later after markets reaching 8000's.
As we look with Eagle's view ( Daily ), Nifty has been bearish from Feb'15 to Mar'16. For an year Nifty has been completely bearish Trend.
Some companies posting good performance results has driven Nifty to current levels from the lows of 6700's. But tats not only reason for recent bull run. Better Monsoon expectations, Federal reserve creating buzz about raise of interest rates and postponing everytime, Foreign investors faith in Indian economy and buying @ lower levels of market - all contributed to this bull run.
But how long this Nifty Bull can run without break ? Well, in my view ( I can be wrong also) The markets are just waiting for some reason to tumble down to retest 7500-7700 zone. But we should also note that there is very strong resistance turned support zone in 7900-8000's which is difficult to break bcos psychological level too.
If we look on technical side, there are 3 Scenario's I have noticed :
Scenario 1 : (Fibs)
Though for short term we have seen bull-run, we haven't breached 61.8% Fib levels of Larger swing move & 78.6% Fib levels of Fib 2 in same area, if you notice keenly Nifty faced resistance around those fib levels and dropped to 8170 from 8300. 130 point drops are normal but the area where it turned down is Fib levels which makes the case interesting.
Fib 2 drawn on smaller move and its 50% Fib levels & 61.8% of Fib 1 levels drop in the resistance turned support which is 8000's. Markets can retest this 8000, before continuing its bull run.
Scenario 2 : (Trend Lines)
Nifty retested trendlines 3 times in this current upward move and another retest is also possible which falls again in same 8000 levels (marked no.6 in chart). But have you noticed the harmonic play there ?
Scenario 3 : (Harmonics)
There is Bearish 3 Drive Pattern formation but everyone uses different ratio's so its upto you to decide on that.
Similarly, ABCD pattern formation again depends on how you use your ratio's.
Overall, Nifty touching 8000 seems imminent but if it breaks that zone its all together different story which we will discuss later after markets reaching 8000's.
Note
Really, Nifty gave us great start for the week with a gap down, we are moving towards our marked support zone 8000'sNote
NIkkei 225 ( Japan Index) is almost down by 1% and S&P500 also closed in red yesterday. So Nifty gap down is possible. Move your stops to breakeven levels. If those global markets recover Nifty will try to fill yesterday's gap so play safe.Note
R3 not to seek 2nd term @ RBI. A very bad sign for markets in my view. So today Gapdown ? or Red Market ? We will find out in another 50mins...Note
Sixer -- As expected broke 8000's
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