Nifty Short, Medium & Long Term view 05-Aug-24 to 9-Aug-24
Nifty Short, Medium & Long Term view 05-Aug-24 to 9-Aug-24
Nifty closed at 24717 ( 2 weeks before 24509) and touched low & high of 24094-25082 ( all time High) in a span of 2 weeks.
World Market Outlook, sudden drop in US market especially in Tech Stocks, Europe and Asian market lead to impact Nifty. Volatility to continue till fed rate reduction (expected in Sep 24), US Presidential election till Oct end/ Nov 24.
RSI and stochastics levels was marginally down last week (61 % & 66% Respectively). Stochastic dropped to 66% from 90%.
Caution was emphasized on Nifty for the past 1-1.5 month as nifty PE is in record high level with high valuation and very less potential to grow further.
Strong tax imposition on speculative STCG, increase in tax for LTCG and removal of Indexation benefits for Properties and Gold will have impact on such investments, Loans and the demand. Which may affect the Bank Loans. Also With scrap in Indexation benefit illegal cash handling will raise.
Those with lesser risk can sell partial portfolio ( 20-30%) stocks which have less valuation and can wait for opportunity to buy when nifty dips upto 22800.
Deploy stop loss of upto 7%-8% ( i.e Nifty 22800 level) which is crucial. More Risky players can have stop loss of trend line resistance of 23750 as shown in the chart.
Market have high potential to touch Psychological 25000 Mark/ 25200 ( Fib Resistance)/ 25500 ( Fib Resistance).
Nifty 24717- Short term (Neutral to Down)
Nifty short term resistance 25075 ( New Peak) and 25224.
Support around 23740.
Medium Term 25224( Fib Resistance), 25542 ( Fib Resistance) which is % of difference between Mar 23 low and Sep 23 high low from Sep23 high shown as vertical line
Medium term Support - 22800 /22300
Long Term (1-3 years) Nifty have strong resistance at 27000 ( Fibonacci Resistance). If market close above 25580 decisively. Support at 20800 ( Fib Support) 20225 / 20000 ( Fib Resistance),19500 expected in 2024.
Nifty bank 51350 (2 weeks before 52296 )- Index went upto 53400 ( Resistance) and came down as proposed from 47250 level nifty bank jumped more than 10%. Caution was emphasised as nifty bank reached critical resistance. It need to cross and move up decisively this current zone. Advised to consider to book partial profits in Nifty Bank on every rise. Investment decision in Nifty bank, bank stocks helped in portfolio.
Stock Picking is needed at this crucial nifty, Nifty Bank, Nifty auto, Nifty Pharma stocks. As insisted for last 3 months Banks & Finanace Stocks are really good and will give good results, as expected Q4 results are good especially for ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Indian Bank & Punjab National Bank.
Fundamentally good stocks can be added as it posted good results on every dip in finance stocks such as Manappuram Finance, suryoday small fin,Motilal Fin, Chola Finance, Other stocks like Dr Reddys, Natco Pharma, Cipla, JK Cements, Biocon, Tanla & persistent Sys can add these stocks to portfolio. There is a possibility of dip to 21000-22000, hence please buy in parcels and every dip of Index and every dip of individual stocks (2-5% of portfolio on each purchase for long term) The above stocks mentioned are based on analysis of top line & Bottom line performance, hence based on the risk and portfolio mix one can add after analysis.
Comments : Post Elections, if Market need to grow higher by reduction of interest rate by RBI on a staggered manner till it reaches 5% ( in span of 2-3 years ). US fed rate reduction also expected from Aug/ Sep 2024. US President Election scheduled in Nov 24. Until then Market may correct if any global news upto19500 as there is strong multiple fib support in this range.
Nifty IT 39730 ( 2 weeks before 39251), indices broke the Major support at 33350 and went down upto 32420.
Currently Nifty up and crossed resistance 41300. Muted results with meeting the market expectaion driven the index to bounce back. However Caution to be empahsised as US Economy still in bad condition and awaiting for rate cut.
Nifty closed at 24717 ( 2 weeks before 24509) and touched low & high of 24094-25082 ( all time High) in a span of 2 weeks.
World Market Outlook, sudden drop in US market especially in Tech Stocks, Europe and Asian market lead to impact Nifty. Volatility to continue till fed rate reduction (expected in Sep 24), US Presidential election till Oct end/ Nov 24.
RSI and stochastics levels was marginally down last week (61 % & 66% Respectively). Stochastic dropped to 66% from 90%.
Caution was emphasized on Nifty for the past 1-1.5 month as nifty PE is in record high level with high valuation and very less potential to grow further.
Strong tax imposition on speculative STCG, increase in tax for LTCG and removal of Indexation benefits for Properties and Gold will have impact on such investments, Loans and the demand. Which may affect the Bank Loans. Also With scrap in Indexation benefit illegal cash handling will raise.
Those with lesser risk can sell partial portfolio ( 20-30%) stocks which have less valuation and can wait for opportunity to buy when nifty dips upto 22800.
Deploy stop loss of upto 7%-8% ( i.e Nifty 22800 level) which is crucial. More Risky players can have stop loss of trend line resistance of 23750 as shown in the chart.
Market have high potential to touch Psychological 25000 Mark/ 25200 ( Fib Resistance)/ 25500 ( Fib Resistance).
Nifty 24717- Short term (Neutral to Down)
Nifty short term resistance 25075 ( New Peak) and 25224.
Support around 23740.
Medium Term 25224( Fib Resistance), 25542 ( Fib Resistance) which is % of difference between Mar 23 low and Sep 23 high low from Sep23 high shown as vertical line
Medium term Support - 22800 /22300
Long Term (1-3 years) Nifty have strong resistance at 27000 ( Fibonacci Resistance). If market close above 25580 decisively. Support at 20800 ( Fib Support) 20225 / 20000 ( Fib Resistance),19500 expected in 2024.
Nifty bank 51350 (2 weeks before 52296 )- Index went upto 53400 ( Resistance) and came down as proposed from 47250 level nifty bank jumped more than 10%. Caution was emphasised as nifty bank reached critical resistance. It need to cross and move up decisively this current zone. Advised to consider to book partial profits in Nifty Bank on every rise. Investment decision in Nifty bank, bank stocks helped in portfolio.
Stock Picking is needed at this crucial nifty, Nifty Bank, Nifty auto, Nifty Pharma stocks. As insisted for last 3 months Banks & Finanace Stocks are really good and will give good results, as expected Q4 results are good especially for ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Indian Bank & Punjab National Bank.
Fundamentally good stocks can be added as it posted good results on every dip in finance stocks such as Manappuram Finance, suryoday small fin,Motilal Fin, Chola Finance, Other stocks like Dr Reddys, Natco Pharma, Cipla, JK Cements, Biocon, Tanla & persistent Sys can add these stocks to portfolio. There is a possibility of dip to 21000-22000, hence please buy in parcels and every dip of Index and every dip of individual stocks (2-5% of portfolio on each purchase for long term) The above stocks mentioned are based on analysis of top line & Bottom line performance, hence based on the risk and portfolio mix one can add after analysis.
Comments : Post Elections, if Market need to grow higher by reduction of interest rate by RBI on a staggered manner till it reaches 5% ( in span of 2-3 years ). US fed rate reduction also expected from Aug/ Sep 2024. US President Election scheduled in Nov 24. Until then Market may correct if any global news upto19500 as there is strong multiple fib support in this range.
Nifty IT 39730 ( 2 weeks before 39251), indices broke the Major support at 33350 and went down upto 32420.
Currently Nifty up and crossed resistance 41300. Muted results with meeting the market expectaion driven the index to bounce back. However Caution to be empahsised as US Economy still in bad condition and awaiting for rate cut.
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