NIFTY VIEWS
During first three days of the week the index was looking vulnerable and held captive below 18360. The final hour of option expiry saw a spectacular move to conquer 18500 zone. It actually attempted the downside support. A move after consolidation is a healthy sign. The NIFTY index is showing similar type of move as it happened in Bank Nifty when attempting 42k.
A few observations from the weekly charts are:
Weekly charts suggest that
*The index moved around 400 points viz. between 18133 and 18534
*With the strong move the oscillators are showing positive bias
Option OI is expected to drive the market direction
Additional observations from the weekly chart
*The Index made higher highs and lower lows and it ended up with a bullish candle
Index seem to have generated higher momentum to post a new ATH
Expected scenarios for the ensuing week
Though closed at 18512, the Index is expected to open lower
Break below the trend line support at 18320 would see the index drift lower
For the ensuing week, the index may find supports at 18370, 18240, 18130 and the index could face resistances at18560. 18670
A daily close above 18670 would be seen as strongly biased towards a big leap forward
The oscillators in the Monthly chart are turning positive and requires stronger momentum
Additional interesting observations
*As expected the projected target of 18530 has been achieved and a move towards 18700 are possible based on Fib projection of Monthly charts
FIIs did try a sell-off with volumes on 2 trading sessions. However, finally both FIIs and DIIs seem to be net positive
Two possible scenarios
Expected rage of 18240-18530 or 18360-18666
Any breach on a daily closing basis below 18360 would trigger stops and we may expect the move extending to 18240. Any close outside the range of 18240-18670 requires re-assessment of risk
Final Note
*We see an Inv H&S pattern on weekly with Head at 15800 & base at 17600 suggest a target of 19k?
The angle of inclination in the line chart suggest potential for achieving a new ATH as first goal post.
While the cross-over of 18530 would be treated as a move towards final target of 19k, various indicators suggest the Index may post ATH of 18670 and face tuff resistance around that peak. A daily close above 18670 would trigger bigger stops and would quickly move towards 18800
For now, the market seems to ignore Recession worries
Just a couple of sessions/weeks make markets to change perceptions
Last week witnessed saw a sharp move due to Option expiry
Next two three sessions are crucial as there could be a fight for a favourable monthly closing
If for any reason we see a closing below 18200 then there are chances that we may see a course correction before reemerging with renewed vigor for next target of 19k
There are no signs of a possible reversal yet
Time to tighten the seat belts
Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.
An interesting week ahead
A few observations from the weekly charts are:
Weekly charts suggest that
*The index moved around 400 points viz. between 18133 and 18534
*With the strong move the oscillators are showing positive bias
Option OI is expected to drive the market direction
Additional observations from the weekly chart
*The Index made higher highs and lower lows and it ended up with a bullish candle
Index seem to have generated higher momentum to post a new ATH
Expected scenarios for the ensuing week
Though closed at 18512, the Index is expected to open lower
Break below the trend line support at 18320 would see the index drift lower
For the ensuing week, the index may find supports at 18370, 18240, 18130 and the index could face resistances at18560. 18670
A daily close above 18670 would be seen as strongly biased towards a big leap forward
The oscillators in the Monthly chart are turning positive and requires stronger momentum
Additional interesting observations
*As expected the projected target of 18530 has been achieved and a move towards 18700 are possible based on Fib projection of Monthly charts
FIIs did try a sell-off with volumes on 2 trading sessions. However, finally both FIIs and DIIs seem to be net positive
Two possible scenarios
Expected rage of 18240-18530 or 18360-18666
Any breach on a daily closing basis below 18360 would trigger stops and we may expect the move extending to 18240. Any close outside the range of 18240-18670 requires re-assessment of risk
Final Note
*We see an Inv H&S pattern on weekly with Head at 15800 & base at 17600 suggest a target of 19k?
The angle of inclination in the line chart suggest potential for achieving a new ATH as first goal post.
While the cross-over of 18530 would be treated as a move towards final target of 19k, various indicators suggest the Index may post ATH of 18670 and face tuff resistance around that peak. A daily close above 18670 would trigger bigger stops and would quickly move towards 18800
For now, the market seems to ignore Recession worries
Just a couple of sessions/weeks make markets to change perceptions
Last week witnessed saw a sharp move due to Option expiry
Next two three sessions are crucial as there could be a fight for a favourable monthly closing
If for any reason we see a closing below 18200 then there are chances that we may see a course correction before reemerging with renewed vigor for next target of 19k
There are no signs of a possible reversal yet
Time to tighten the seat belts
Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.
An interesting week ahead
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.