Why Is The Stock Market So Difficult To Predict?
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Let’s assume stock prices have been rising for several years. Investors realize that a correction will come and stock prices will tumble. What we don’t understand is what will trigger the selloff or exactly when it will occur. Therefore, some investors will sit on the sidelines holding cash, waiting for the opportune time to get in. Those who are willing to assume the risk may jump in because the return on cash is so low and it hurts to earn zero while watching stocks move higher. This begs a couple of key questions. If you’re on the sidelines, how will you know when to get in? If you’re already in, how will you know when it’s time to get out? If the stock market was predictable, these questions could easily be answered. However, it is not. There are actually three issues an investor should consider. The first is understanding the point at which stock prices are fairly valued. The second issue is the event that will cause a downturn
Let’s assume stock prices have been rising for several years. Investors realize that a correction will come and stock prices will tumble. What we don’t understand is what will trigger the selloff or exactly when it will occur. Therefore, some investors will sit on the sidelines holding cash, waiting for the opportune time to get in. Those who are willing to assume the risk may jump in because the return on cash is so low and it hurts to earn zero while watching stocks move higher. This begs a couple of key questions. If you’re on the sidelines, how will you know when to get in? If you’re already in, how will you know when it’s time to get out? If the stock market was predictable, these questions could easily be answered. However, it is not. There are actually three issues an investor should consider. The first is understanding the point at which stock prices are fairly valued. The second issue is the event that will cause a downturn
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