NIFTY : Prediction levels and plan for 19-Dec-2024
Intro: Previous Day's Plan vs Actual
In yesterday's chart, we observed Nifty approaching a deep retracement zone (113% level at 24,098) and tested the must-try zone for Wave C completion as highlighted. Price remained within the "No Trade Zone" for a considerable period, indicating indecision and sideways movement. The sideways yellow trend was respected, with no significant breakout.
Now, for 19-Dec-2024, we will plan the opening scenarios considering a gap opening of 100+ points in either direction, or a flat opening, using key levels for action.
Trading Scenarios for 19-Dec-2024
- Gap Up Opening (100+ points):
If Nifty opens above the Opening Resistance for Retracement at 24,359, this signals initial strength.
- Monitor the first 30 minutes for price action confirmation. If Nifty sustains above 24,359, we may see a move towards the Last Intraday Resistance at 24,488 (red level).
- Aggressive traders can look for long opportunities with a stop loss placed at 24,227 (blue level) on an hourly candle-close basis.
- However, failure to sustain above 24,359 can lead to a retracement back towards the No Trade Zone (24,169).
- Action Plan:
- If the price closes an hourly candle above **24,359**, initiate longs with **targets** at **24,488**.
- If it fails to hold above, avoid fresh trades and wait for price to return to the retracement zone. - Flat Opening:
If Nifty opens near the No Trade Zone (24,169 - 24,227), caution is required. A sideways price action is likely within this range.
- Price needs to break out from this "No Trade Zone" to give clear direction.
- Upside breakout above 24,227 could lead to a retracement test towards 24,359.
- Downside breakdown below 24,169 can trigger a test of the Wave C correction zone at 24,098 - 24,029.
- Action Plan:
- Avoid trading in the "No Trade Zone" to minimize risk.
- For longs, wait for a confirmed breakout above **24,227**.
- For shorts, wait for a breakdown below **24,169**, targeting **24,098** first and then **24,029**. - Gap Down Opening (100+ points):
If Nifty opens near or below the Must Try Zone at Wave C completion (24,098 - 24,029), it signals a bearish start.
- Watch for signs of support formation in this range. A strong bounce can lead to a reversal back toward 24,169.
- However, if Nifty fails to hold this zone and breaks 24,029, further downside towards 23,600 could unfold (red trend).
- Action Plan:
- Look for buying opportunities if price holds above **24,029** with confirmation on the hourly chart.
- If **24,029** breaks decisively, initiate short positions targeting **23,600**, with a stop loss above **24,098**.
Risk Management Tips for Options Traders:
Always use stop losses based on an hourly candle close to manage risks.
Avoid trading in uncertain zones (e.g., "No Trade Zone") where the risk-reward ratio is unfavorable.
For options, consider deploying spreads (e.g., Bull Call Spread or Bear Put Spread) to limit risk during gap openings.
Avoid chasing trades in case of a sharp gap-up or gap-down; let the price stabilize for 30 minutes.
Summary and Conclusion:
Nifty remains at a critical juncture near the Wave C correction completion zone.
Key Levels to Watch:
Upside: 24,227, 24,359, 24,488
Downside: 24,169, 24,098, 24,029, and 23,600
Focus on breakouts or breakdowns for actionable trades, avoiding sideways moves.
The yellow trend reflects sideways movement, green indicates a bullish reversal, and red shows bearish continuation.
Disclaimer: I am not a SEBI-registered analyst. This trading plan is for educational purposes only. Traders should conduct their analysis or consult a financial advisor before making decisions.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.