NIFTY Forecast

We have analyst forecast data available on TradingView for stocks, but not for indexes. This idea shows how to forecast an index using forecast data available for its constituents on forecast tab.

Get list of Maximum, Minimum and Average 1-year price estimates of constituents from Forecast tab
Get weights of constituents of the index (from exchange or third party website)
Calculate % changes required from current price of constituents to achieve max, min and avg targets
Apply the weighted sum of % changes to the current value of the index to get index's estimate of max, min and avg

The table below shows data for NIFTY on 2nd May 2023 and average 1-year estimate for that (excel table) -

Pine Script®

A B C D E F G # Symbol Weight Price Avg Avg % Weighted Avg % (E1-D1)/D1*C1 1 NSE:RELIANCE 10.32 2441.05 2817.4 15.42 1.591090719 2 NSE:HDFCBANK 9.38 1687.25 1993.1 18.13 1.700324789 3 NSE:ICICIBANK 8.08 922.1 1125.25 22.03 1.780123631 4 NSE:HDFC 6.34 2790 3080.1 10.4 0.6592236559 5 NSE:INFY 5.63 1277.45 1483.45 16.13 0.9078868057 6 NSE:ITC 4.73 424.45 438.05 3.2 0.1515561315 7 NSE:TCS 4.16 3219.4 3467.8 7.72 0.3209740946 8 NSE:LT 3.6 2384.45 2448.7 2.69 0.09700350186 9 NSE:KOTAKBANK 3.59 1921.15 2134.1 11.08 0.3979337897 10 NSE:AXISBANK 2.97 870.65 1098.15 26.13 0.7760581175 11 NSE:SBIN 2.8 575.3 717.15 24.66 0.6903876238 12 NSE:HINDUNILVR 2.77 2451.7 2854.45 16.43 0.4550383407 13 NSE:BHARTIARTL 2.47 790.2 903.55 14.34 0.3543084029 14 NSE:BAJFINANCE 2.11 6249.15 7071.65 13.16 0.2777137691 15 NSE:ASIANPAINT 1.65 2899.55 3046.05 5.05 0.08336638444 16 NSE:MARUTI 1.44 8776.85 10321.1 17.59 0.2533619693 17 NSE:HCLTECH 1.42 1067.55 1152.85 7.99 0.1134616646 18 NSE:TITAN 1.39 2663.85 2870.35 7.75 0.107751938 19 NSE:M&M 1.38 1237.3 1535.6 24.11 0.3327034672 20 NSE:SUNPHARMA 1.34 973.05 1171.3 20.37 0.2730126921 21 NSE:TATASTEEL 1.1 110.3 125.3 13.6 0.1495920218 22 NSE:ULTRACEMCO 1.1 7456.6 8389.3 12.51 0.1375922002 23 NSE:TATAMOTORS 1.08 480.25 520.9 8.46 0.09141488808 24 NSE:NTPC 1.03 175.6 202.65 15.4 0.1586645786 25 NSE:POWERGRID 1.02 240.1 247.7 3.17 0.03228654727 26 NSE:NESTLEIND 0.98 21745.8 21898 0.7 0.006859055866 27 NSE:INDUSINDBK 0.95 1150.9 1417.55 23.17 0.2201038318 28 NSE:BAJAJFINSV 0.92 1349.05 1576.25 16.84 0.1549416256 29 NSE:JSWSTEEL 0.86 737.9 694.4 -5.9 -0.05069792655 30 NSE:GRASIM 0.8 1739.55 1919.9 10.37 0.08294099049 31 NSE:HINDALCO 0.8 446.15 520.4 16.64 0.1331390788 32 NSE:TECHM 0.8 1053.45 1105.6 4.95 0.03960320851 33 NSE:ONGC 0.78 164.25 179.5 9.28 0.07242009132 34 NSE:DRREDDY 0.76 4950.4 4936.55 -0.28 -0.002126292825 35 NSE:WIPRO 0.72 388.35 386.3 -0.53 -0.003800695249 36 NSE:BRITANNIA 0.68 4511.05 4907.4 8.79 0.05974617883 38 NSE:ADANIENT 0.66 1919.85 1919 -0.04 -0.0002922103289 37 NSE:HDFCLIFE 0.66 544.5 640.95 17.71 0.1169090909 39 NSE:ADANIPORTS 0.65 681.5 801.65 17.63 0.1145964784 40 NSE:SBILIFE 0.65 1150.9 1518.05 31.9 0.2073572856 41 NSE:BAJAJ-AUTO 0.63 4498 4606.35 2.41 0.01517574478 42 NSE:COALINDIA 0.62 236.1 255.05 8.03 0.04976281237 43 NSE:CIPLA 0.6 917.7 1107.25 20.65 0.1239293887 46 NSE:APOLLOHOSP 0.57 4490.8 5212.9 16.08 0.09165338024 44 NSE:EICHERMOT 0.57 3356.15 3663.05 9.14 0.05212311726 45 NSE:TATACONSUM 0.57 779.6 853.4 9.47 0.05395844023 47 NSE:DIVISLAB 0.52 3253.7 2911.25 -10.52 -0.05472969235 48 NSE:UPL 0.48 752.5 986.8 31.14 0.1494538206 49 NSE:BPCL 0.43 361.1 377.85 4.64 0.01994599834 50 NSE:HEROMOTOCO 0.42 2495.9 2838.85 13.74 0.0577102448 NSE:NIFTY 18147.65 20616 [D51*(1+SUM(G1:G50)/100)]

Please note that -

Constituents and their weightages change frequently
Analysts go wrong many times and keep updating the targets
This is only useful to know approximate range for the next 1 year
Not all constituents end with maximum or minimum target simultaneously
You could use your own constituent targets to arrive at your own index value
Difficult to maintain this as a pine script indicator, fixed idea with 2nd May 2023 data
ADANIENT estimates are not available, shouldn't make much difference to the arrived value

iravan

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iravan