NIFTY Forecast
We have analyst forecast data available on TradingView for stocks, but not for indexes. This idea shows how to forecast an index using forecast data available for its constituents on forecast tab.
The table below shows data for NIFTY on 2nd May 2023 and average 1-year estimate for that (excel table) -
Please note that -
- Get list of Maximum, Minimum and Average 1-year price estimates of constituents from Forecast tab
- Get weights of constituents of the index (from exchange or third party website)
- Calculate % changes required from current price of constituents to achieve max, min and avg targets
- Apply the weighted sum of % changes to the current value of the index to get index's estimate of max, min and avg
The table below shows data for NIFTY on 2nd May 2023 and average 1-year estimate for that (excel table) -
Please note that -
- Constituents and their weightages change frequently
- Analysts go wrong many times and keep updating the targets
- This is only useful to know approximate range for the next 1 year
- Not all constituents end with maximum or minimum target simultaneously
- You could use your own constituent targets to arrive at your own index value
- Difficult to maintain this as a pine script indicator, fixed idea with 2nd May 2023 data
- ADANIENT estimates are not available, shouldn't make much difference to the arrived value
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