Nifty Microcap 250 Chart Pattern - Where are we headed?
Updated
When we look at the Nifty Microcap 250 index, there are no more new chart patterns being made on Monthly charts. As per my limited knowledge, it looks like touching 25700 before correcting sharply to much lower levels (May be even below 21K level to 15K levels, or realistically say midway to about 18K levels. This may be a massive correction both time based as well as price based. But I am a novice.. so I dont know if that'll really happen!
On Daily Charts. Inverse complex Head and Shoulder seen. Breakout line at 21k. Bottom at 17393. Technical target is 24700 or 25000. So we can see a rally till 24700 and Post that it might correct to 21000 levels (for retest) and then reverse (move up from 21k) till 25700 to make te ATH or break down below the retest level of 21000, and fall to our midway target of 18K (or go down till 15k).
So for me, (Again just for my reference) I am thinking of selling my frothy stocks in my Portfolio when this microcap index reaches 24000-24200 levels and start getting into cash. By 24000 levels, I should be in 75%-85% cash.
Since one of the major events coming up is the budget, I think index will not waste any more time and quickly go till the target of 24000+ levels before budget is declared. I don't know.. just thinking out loud. I may be entirely wrong and this is just my analysis based on my limited understanding of charts so please do not trade based on this info. You WILL incur heavy losses if you trade based on this analysis.
On Daily Charts. Inverse complex Head and Shoulder seen. Breakout line at 21k. Bottom at 17393. Technical target is 24700 or 25000. So we can see a rally till 24700 and Post that it might correct to 21000 levels (for retest) and then reverse (move up from 21k) till 25700 to make te ATH or break down below the retest level of 21000, and fall to our midway target of 18K (or go down till 15k).
So for me, (Again just for my reference) I am thinking of selling my frothy stocks in my Portfolio when this microcap index reaches 24000-24200 levels and start getting into cash. By 24000 levels, I should be in 75%-85% cash.
Since one of the major events coming up is the budget, I think index will not waste any more time and quickly go till the target of 24000+ levels before budget is declared. I don't know.. just thinking out loud. I may be entirely wrong and this is just my analysis based on my limited understanding of charts so please do not trade based on this info. You WILL incur heavy losses if you trade based on this analysis.
Note
And after a day of lull, index is off to a great start. Seems like in a hurry to reach the target! 500+ points up today. Day closes at 23544.Note
Moving closer to the target. Day closes at 23800Note
The way it is moving, it probably may touch 24400 on July 12 itself!Note
Went up till 24300 (we thought it will go up till 24700, but we were kind of close) and then coming down. It broke the 21 DEMA on 19 July too so looks like painful fall may continue for another day. Ah yes! I did not get into 75% cash as decided when it reached 24K.. Another thing which I have to be better at - sticking to what I plan.Note
Went to almost 25000 and now falling. The fall should stop at 24100 levels and sharp rebound should be seen. This is what I feel based on my analysis.. Will need to keep a watch.Note
The fall stopped at 23213. Almost 900 points below what I thought. And then sharp rebound was made. Note
The final high which was made 1-2 days back was 25700+ and then it started the fall. As for me, I have been churning stocks to get out of those where targets have been met and getting into those which are showing newer patterns to get in.
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