Will this be The Last Dance (with the Investors?)
NIO 9866 Take it as just my perspective.
NIO's December target of delivering 10,000 vehicles seems (at least for me) to be the final promise holding its credibility in the eyes of investors. After years of ambitious forecasts and unmet goals, this could mark the turning point for many who have supported NIO through a tumultuous journey—filled with hope, hype, and heartbreak.
I’ve come to think of NIO as a "toxic love affair" : an irresistible vision of premium EV dominance, paired with disappointing results.
The Promises of NIO
2018: Profitability Promise
Reality: New deadline 20262019: Sales and Expansion Goals
Forecasted rapid growth despite subsidy cuts in China.
Reality: While deliveries grew, they fell short of expectations.2021: European Expansion Hype
Promised aggressive entry into Europe, including Norway and Germany, with a plan to lead globally.
Reality: Expansion was limited to small-scale markets with low impact on sales.
2022: 200,000 Vehicle Delivery Target
Reality: Delivered just 122,486 units, well below its own projections.2023: Doubling Deliveries Again
CFO projected 250,000 deliveries for the year.
Reality: Revised this guidance down significantly, with 160,000 vehicles delivered, leaving investors disillusioned.Margin Improvement Promises (2023)
Aimed to achieve 20% gross margins through efficiency gains.
Reality: Gross margins slid to 7.5%, as the company struggled with rising costs and price competition.
A Make-or-Break Moment
If NIO misses its 10,000 ONVO December target, it risks losing the trust of its core investors for good. After years of repeated letdowns, the allure of NIO's vision may no longer be enough to outweigh its consistent failure to execute.
December might well be the moment where dreams of its turnaround meet reality. Will NIO finally deliver, or is it time to walk away?
Your move, NIO.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.