Fake out

Updated

Potential bull trap. The stock is over extended while the rest of the market trends lower. Ceiling penetrated but perhaps buyers will dry up at this level

Trade active

Price of Nio at time of writing $28.47. High potentially reached @ $29.20. expecting a retest of top of trend. Play by ear. The origional trade idea was too pessimistic and expecting too large a swing in too short a time.
If the trend breaks down I will expect a 20-25% move down in the next 10 days.
My new target is $22 by end of month.

Trade active

Stop loss now id $29.50 or options put trade. Theoretically, that would be a 1:5.5 risk reward, if 100% the target price were to be achieved.

Note

its make or break now at at $27.73

Note

Trending down. looking good for this idea. Breaking down, Happy days

Note

Descending pendant formed. showing strength again from 27:30. will it break out to the upside? wait and see. If it breaks out, it could rip higher. caution here

Note

a trip lower again it goes.

Note

Coming to the end of the formation. This is going either way with a relatively big move in the next 30 mins. 3-4% I would hazard the guess.

Note

This game is more than being right bidirectionally. It's about getting your costs and expectations correct, so you make more money when you win, than you loose when you're wrong. Longer term targets are usually better. day trading, catches you out on an accumulation of fees, no matter how small the spreads and commissions are.

Note

looks like this is gonna shoot up now. Profits taking is good at this point in my opinion

Note

Next Move: pre-market Nio has gone back to the high of $29.34. Again, this might be a double top. Short with stop would be good here, but I would play it with options. In my opinion, a 6 week option play, buying puts strike ATM and selling the same amount of puts at around strike of $22. Being quick to unwind it at the lower end if there is still substantial time on the option. This covered put strategy keeps costs low and limits losses if it shoots higher. I would probably sell the bough puts if it went away from me a little above $30 and then re-buy the $22 contracts. Not financial Advice. I like options, cos you don't get stopped out.

Note

Slow trend lower. $22 by end of the month unlikely now. Moves haven't been hard enough. $26 at time of writing.

Rod_85

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.