NASDAQ Bounce - how high??
Updated
Someone gave me a heads up earlier this week that ChatGPT returned an answer to say that the market will tank on 15 March 2023. While I see it a little more different, I still keep an open mind as a lot can happen in a week (as we know in recent years).
So first up, ChatGPT is an amazing quantum leap and it is one of those triggers that form a tangent in our development time line. To me, broadly this is like when Google met Siri/Alexa. That said, perhaps the 15 March is a collation of expectations.
Nonetheless, looking into the technical picture for the NASDAQ futures, NQ1!, gives a technical collation of the happenings in the past weeks. Previously, a retracement target was marked out on the weekly chart (faded yellow ellipse). Since then, the NASDAQ made a lower high, and pulled back to the 50% Fibonaccie retracement level and support level about 11,800. And Friday clearly broke out of trend.
So, now how?
First, we look at the green and red dotted lines. These are the TDST levels that need to be broken to have a trend in force. According to the current TD Sequential, the NASDAQ is still in a bullish trend, and just finished a Buy Setup on Thursday, hence a clockwork bounce thereafter expected (and happened).
Next, looking at the range support resistances, we see the green and red rectangles. Breaking out or down with a decisive close and technical alignment (MACD and VolDiv) confirms the trend.
Taking into account the MACD and VolDiv, both are retracing, but are not yet bearish. So taken together, we can expect a bounce, which probably just started. Watching the strength of the bounce is critical, and the first check in point is about 12,500. A trend line connecting the last two highs also point to an approximate area at 12,500 (yellow ellipse). Noted, the MACD is weakening, and so is the shorter term VolDiv. So not yet crazy bullish.
Overall, expecting a lower high (at this point). And going back to the "15 March", although long range analysis not shown here, it appears that May to Oct is a deeper down time. Will update on this in time...
So first up, ChatGPT is an amazing quantum leap and it is one of those triggers that form a tangent in our development time line. To me, broadly this is like when Google met Siri/Alexa. That said, perhaps the 15 March is a collation of expectations.
Nonetheless, looking into the technical picture for the NASDAQ futures, NQ1!, gives a technical collation of the happenings in the past weeks. Previously, a retracement target was marked out on the weekly chart (faded yellow ellipse). Since then, the NASDAQ made a lower high, and pulled back to the 50% Fibonaccie retracement level and support level about 11,800. And Friday clearly broke out of trend.
So, now how?
First, we look at the green and red dotted lines. These are the TDST levels that need to be broken to have a trend in force. According to the current TD Sequential, the NASDAQ is still in a bullish trend, and just finished a Buy Setup on Thursday, hence a clockwork bounce thereafter expected (and happened).
Next, looking at the range support resistances, we see the green and red rectangles. Breaking out or down with a decisive close and technical alignment (MACD and VolDiv) confirms the trend.
Taking into account the MACD and VolDiv, both are retracing, but are not yet bearish. So taken together, we can expect a bounce, which probably just started. Watching the strength of the bounce is critical, and the first check in point is about 12,500. A trend line connecting the last two highs also point to an approximate area at 12,500 (yellow ellipse). Noted, the MACD is weakening, and so is the shorter term VolDiv. So not yet crazy bullish.
Overall, expecting a lower high (at this point). And going back to the "15 March", although long range analysis not shown here, it appears that May to Oct is a deeper down time. Will update on this in time...
Note
So, it bounced and failed resistance.Upside target (yellow ellipse) hit early.
Now it is most probably going for a lower low...
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