Updated

NQ Year End Range (11-04-23)

The technical bounce basically came off Fib Level .618 and the 200 Day MA. Fed Day and 1 Overnight 200 point move was the bulk of the move. This is the 6th major direction change since the July YTD High. Since July the the average drop has been 7.9% over 13 days and average lift, 8.5% over 14 days (current price from bounce). Level 15169 is my current Turn Zone (Red Line) and 15506 is upper max turn zone. The 5 year daily chart has the yellow vertical line at 11/1 and the year end moves vary. This rally may be early and can stall/drop like 2022. Triangle is Long inside and Short at rejection. Thick Yellow is the level to watch and major resistance. The NAZ is above 50 MA 14947, 100 MA 14827 and 200 MA 14300.

Chart (current channel/range)

I will leave this open until year end and will update at major key levels. No Fed No Rally and BTD/FOMO Forever, Trade Well.

Note

Regarding intraday trading the next 2 months, you may want to use the Open Range of each day as base of S/R. I use the 30 minute levels (Top, Mid & Bottom). Usually if price stays above MId, it will/may retest mid and ultimately stay above. Reverse for Short. Prior day levels are also reliable targets when NAZ breaks out of the O/R (open range). The link below is a good reference:

I have also noticed that the Overnight range Mid Level is usually consistent with Mid of O/R (usually, not always). Down moves at Open will many times retest O/N low, then move back to ML of O/R and drop back down.

Note

FA Zones, the failed auction zones have been reliable as target or turn zones. We have one above at 15540 and below at 14100. These are Major, we do see minor zones such as 14993 and 14700. Price will usually hit, stall and drop or reversed (hit, stall and pop). FA Chart below (Blue Zones are Gap Fills) and 3 line boxes are 30M O/R's. Michigandolf's 30min Opening Range / Indicator

Note

Yellow Boxes are Turn Zones

Note

Red Dash are Mid Level TZ's and KL's

Note

Yellow Circles 3 Leg Long and Red is 1st TZ potential for Pull Back, drop/pop.

Note

Friday IDS20 view and Divergence developing for PB.

Note

June 13th to current, bulk of PA. SMA 50, 100 and 200. 200 is below range and may see a retest.

Note

June 13th Long had a retest prior to Pop. July 19 Short had a retest prior to Drop. September 27th Long had a retest prior to Pop. October 12th Drop had NO Retest and October 26th Pop had NO Retest. Past 2 cycles had somewhat loose or very quick reversals, as compared to prior 5 direction changes. Just FYI and keep in mind as the direction can change change quickly (under 15500-15600).

Note

Just keep in mind that the flow is usually set to get you comfortable or set to go with a direction and then at that time the direction changes. The typical adjustment is 10-13 days. You are programmed to be late.

Note

Monday 11/6 is Flat and I just can't see the Longs that are up 700 Plus points let tier necks linger out here the get cut off. NAZ will drop on stall out, it is Monday and this is unusual. Sideways and lower until Friday Prop Rally low volume PA, into Sunday O/N Rip session. Should the pace stall out here in the Dead Zone.

Note

Play range with scalps until a Circle gets hit, like a Bullseye.

Note

Diablo likes the lower Circle.

Note

KLOD is 15185 today. The strange slooooow turn back to ML O/O is aiming for KLOD break and 140 retest.

Note

MR KLOD has taken many hits, Nearish and direct. Can go either way here. In Dead Zone you have to think back up and if no back in DZ, that is a Great Strong Short.

Note

Candle formation is sloppy and weak, this usually actually rallies, FYI. The opposite usually plays out 1st.

Note

PA so low I have been trading 12-15 contracts for any move I can get. Where is the strength? Was Fed Day, 1 O/N lift and a Friday all we get? BTD/FOMO Forever.

Note

We had 10 plus days of slow dropping PA that just popped (with no change in/of conditions) over 3 main days. I think that was a set up Long Trap for deeper drop should the pop stall out. Last pop will be in December when the low volume and Holiday schedule returns. Rally into 2024 with major sell off 1st Q or 2024. NAZ struggles to get lower, typically, Not when it just Popped in a 3-4 day period. That can drop back quickly. KLOD retest #5 NOW

Note

Bingo

Note

Diablo to 15089 is next on No Hold at 140

Note

11/8 Looking Short Today

Note

11/9/23, Staying with Short side

Note

4HR Chart update, The NAZ may get to 15450-500. 420 has been strong resistance for 2 O/N's and 2 Reg Sessions. Again, no new ground with recent lift, just back to prior recent high and getting ready for 7th direction change since July Top.

Note

What is with this SNAIL Price Action? That may be a Signal of lack of conviction along with low volume. BTD/FOMO Forever seems to be slowing.

Note

2 Year View, NAZ in a Cloud

Note

NAZ rejected at Blue Turn Zone.

Note

Test time and the KLOD Break is this move.

Note

340 may hold for pop back up and no hold is drop.

Note

Prior move to 15453 looked like a Long Trap, we will see.

Note

Almost, needs to get under 340, long above.

Note

Bottom and Top

Note

Tuesday Drop Offset start was 15258, we may bounce off that if the Riggers are awake and doing their job.

Note

Back to Rigger 258 Prop, they may defend the level.

Note

Long 250 to 300-60

Note

Look Short under 395

Note

Under Turn Zone or lower KL 15395, look short for retest of mid channel (yellow arrow).

Note

Good luck Followers, today is pivotal day. Have a Great Day and Weekend.
11/9/23 Private Post

11/10/23 Daily Range and KL's

Note

11/10 Post had 1st rejection at KL 15284, This was also a TLX, may be hard to pass, FYI.

Note

As the O/N lifts the NAZ, keep in mind that 15395 was best spot for short yesterday and now we at floating back up and 100 away from 395. The 2nd best spot will be under 395 and keep that in mind as the pops and drops with lower highs and lower lows. Do not get spun around as that is what they will try to do. Should we pass 395, then drop is not ready.

Note

Turn Zone 2nd try

Note

NAZ appears to capitulating.

Note

Under 395 is strong Short

Note

Need to see a Candle spike Wick

Note

Target and wick creation as FA's are all the way up.

Note

Holding the REVERSE Button, Wee

Note

Rigged

Note

Slow Mo capitulation, may be wrong with that one. Usually much faster.

Note

Just wait on Short, you will know when. Friday's play into O/N and Monday's LONG. Need to see Spike up (in normal days).

Note

Rolling over but slowly

Note

I closed Long at 15563, Feel Snap coming. 558-614 is range to watch

Note

Load up Short under KL 15550 with stop at 15620 or above. Short at stall under 15615 if it moves up or stays above 550. NAZ at 15560 now.

Note

Rationale is that there are so many Failed Auction below. These usually get retested prior to a move higher and are fake PA.

Note

No trade triggered as the Price is barley moving. I would cancel the Short near 615. This may not drop at all.

Note

Circles are Long to or short from targets, next week.

Note

Current lift can go as high as 15800, the idea is below. The Red Diagram (left) 800 point drop after the Spike candle went sideways and then changed direction. The 400 point Friday may be the start of the next cycle. Watch 15600-800 and current level to 15400 for turn or sideways, then next move.

Note

615 did stall out and drop, 450 may been bounce level in O/N. KL's for O/N are 400, 450 and 600.

Note

Orange are new FA's and 1 (white) FA was taken out. NAZ turned at Lower Circle, may try upper, if so that would be a level to look short for a pull back to lower FA's.

Note

11/14, CPI release, meet the Diablo

Note

Diablo POP, orange zone are FA's, this will be an "Air Pocket" Long Trap and get retested. Careful here FOMO.

Note

11/14 PA, 640-80 is only Reg Session range that could be traded. Narrow and NAZ is pushed up in Pre Open in a few minutes, this is forced move and will retest lower once the lift does stall or 40 point range gets broken.

Note

Just watch Drops under 15880 and BTD plays.

Note

11/15 Turn day view post

Note

Important day as follow up to yesterday Short Call. No O/N Prop and Post is below.

Note

White Arrow is KL Short or potential direction change call form yesterdays post.

Note

11/16 Post was accurate with stall/drop and 11/17 is attached. Key day/level as typical Friday-Monday lift play may not work. If so, may see decent drop. Otherwise, stay Long through Monday and probably most of next week.

Note

11/17 post,

Note

The daily chart is the Volume Profile with VA (white line) and POC (yellow dash), prior to recent run.

VP after or current

Unless Santa brings some serious Price Action for the Regular Session, I think we retest 15200. Watch the low volume games (upside only) the week of Thanksgiving.

Note

Lower FA Zones

Note

IDS20 Scalp System, 11/17 Long on white and Short on Yellows. Pattern continues for multiple Scalp Trades.

Note

Mentioned on 11/17 Post, in O/N long to KL 15920 in O/N and Short from in Reg Session. Watch O/N high during Reg Session, the NAZ typically will fall under during Reg Session. Monday Holiday week may try KL high #2 16000-40.

Note

Daily Narrow Range

Note

O/N took out 1st lower FA, look for the test of blue box this week if not today. May be tomorrow as the Sunday/Monday Long Play form O/n may be the direction.

Note

16000 Short may play out or 16040, expected a pop here on Monday. Looking for O/R MID to Lower retest.

Note

White arrow is Long Entry and Yellow is Target and Short. Most Likely range for day or week.

Note

16000 Retest of ML O/R to the penny (15940). just play easy trades and look for sell off later back to mid range (15900).

Note

Should upper FA Zone get cleaned out it may set up reversal trade the FA below.

Note

20 Year Bond Auction at Noon will send NAZ lower.

Note

20YR went well, Good news is bad news spin, on the way to justify drop. Drop may be final hour or by Open Tuesday, just needs to retest lower 15900-800

Note

16075-15840 is an established range (5 days). Unless NAZ blows the top off above high (16075), it should drop back in. Not sure it breaks out this week, I think they just play the full range (like O/N to current).

Note

Flat, too slow to add or trade, may just get ramped up into Close and O/N.

Note

Looks like Short Shake out and today is most likely just a Monday Boost for the week that may go sideways to lower.

Note

11/21, Diablo Day and look Short. Not a Friday or Monday but a Holiday so the Short Ride lower may be limited or FOMC Minutes will shake it up and Nvidia will redirect the FOMC move. Just do not feel solidness under yesterdays lift.

Note

Channel Chart, NAZ on the edge.

Note

16075 Retest done in O/N at 6:30am, Grey Zones are targets for a pull back, 15775 is larger Failed Auction zone. Should channel reject NAZ, the grey level will be hit and bounce or keep dropping for FA zone below.

Note

Friday post I mentioned the current level as a Long to and now is Short from. Will drop some to retest or set next bigger move. Good luck today and I may check back later. Expecting nothing or decent counter trend move today.

Note

For those that have been following for awhile, 16073 is a TLX. These are reliable for indicating a direction change or turn zone.

Note

Any Hold/Bounce may try 16155 KL, and drop was 100, typical TZ. Above SZ's and FA's are now gone. May bounce off 16000

Note

The white arrows show the start of the FA and target for next counter trade. You sit and wait fir IDS20 to set for move to SZ or Shaded Zone.

Note

16000 Target Hit. next lower is 15940 and upper is 16155 should Diablo Pop. Range today may be 15840-16155.

Note

15920 is 200 point drop and NAZ may head to Diablo test 16020. Lower Target hit on Daily Forecast.

Note

945 and above should try 980-16000 and Diablo is now lower for pop through Long should it hold.

Note

15900 Is Danger Zone and They will keep NAZ away from the DZ.

Note

15980 Hit and Diablo try to get passed 16000, rejection may send the NAZ to Danger Zone 15900

Note

NAZ out of Channel and TLX and Diablo held .

Note

11/22 Post and final for week.

Note

10 YN has moved lower some since Tuesday, may see stock lower or 10TN come back up and stock move up.

Note

NAZ, Danger Zone retest or BTD/FOMO Forever.

Note

Under Friday Close is key 16036, KL 15901 is strong short

Note

11/27 Post

Note

11/28 Post is Public, FA Zone update below.

Note

11/29 Post

Note

Near Month End and may get PA back in lower Channel.

Note

11/30 Post and Month End Day

Note

12/1 Post

Note

12/4, No Public post today. No O/N Lift is no good. NAZ typically has little to ZERO strength on Long Side during Open Range of Reg Session. It will need to rebound from the drop. Good Luck today, Long Trap has been set from prior days PA.

Note

16036-15900 Update, break below is looking possible, need to get past the Riggers, BTD/FOMO's

Note

15800 is Danger Zone and look for the defending at level, they will not want it down there.

Note

U Turn in Dead Zone is Likely or major drop on the way.

Note

FA Update and NAZ should start moving up from 725

Note

The 725 Long was hard one (called in Private), the snail PA is what to expect during the Dead Zone and UP is usually the ONLY Direction, Part of the Rig Drop Offset.. 15795-820 may reject this weak lift.

Note

ML O/R Hit and under 850 is a short for EOD Drop, may be last lift to get short for day or next few days. 850-910 is no pass drop zone.

Note

12/5 Looking Short today, yesterday private Post.

Note

Yellow Dotted are KL's to watch, NAZ is under U Turn Zone, may try to get back in or take a dive.

Note

Looks like NAZ is trying for 15860-15900 as Test and potential rejection Drop Zone.

Note

After next try higher, 15700-15600 is air pocket drop zone and this level may be protected as the NAZ will drop. The other play is to look Long should the range hold.

Note

15770-810 lift may be weak pump/dump attempt by the Rig Team. Good luck today.

Note

12/13 Fed Day, NAZ is near ATH, get out your Shorts.

Note

Key day today for LC Tech as RTY is outperforming, rotation may be on.
Private Post for today.

Note

Everyday the NAZ will move in a 200ish point range, play the range and we are looking for a 1 way day lower to retest. Keep in mind that we have a 200 point gap below due to contract change. This is a "air pocket" that usually gets retested.

Note

Fed Day Long Trap so far, BTD/FOMO Forever or wait until next FED Day ONLY. 16750 will need to hold here and pass 16845.

Note

Post update, 16627 hit, may come back up some.

Note

Leaving early today, 16740-627 may be zone to play, recent drop has FA at 16740

Note

12/15, 16627 hit did pop back up to 16825 range. This by way of slow lift and O/N lift (hours as compared to drop minutes). Friday's tend to rally into Monday, so just let it go until next 200 point drop in minutes.

Note

Open drop (1st 30M), dead Zone rally and then O/N Rally to the moon into Monday close with sell off on Tuesday. This has been the pattern all year and may be the last one so take your time with the Short entry during the Holiday lower 1 way volume.

Note

No 1 way run as we are still in every trade or move coming back on the move range. This gives you 2 chances to catch some points. The drop will come once this changes and the cycle breaks. The drop is most Likely the next bigger move as we get stretched here.

Note

Test Zone for next move

Note

Good Luck today, Track 100 point moves and plan 100 point targets

Note

Rejection, give it 100

Note

12/15 Private Post, The big Dipper is on the way. Just need to get past Holiday Lazy PA.

Note

Looking for 200 point drop next day or so.

Note

NAZ at Launch Zone and no lift is 200 point drop

Note

2 weeks left with YE 2023, 12/18 Post

Note

LZ did hold for run up but getting weaker and weaker, drop test to follow.

Note

12/19, Since the post date of 11/4 that NAZ has moved 20% or 1,800 point to just above Yellow Triangle. Look for NAZ to come back to ML of Triangle or 16,000 a 900 point drop. Not today but gradually.

Note

16960-17000 should be a TZ for today for ML O/N retest and then sideways to lower.

Note

NAZ is flipping at TZ, watch level.

Note

So today we are looking for a O/R ML retest and failure or the NAZ to stay under the O/R ML and test lower O/ and O/N Leve s or even yesterday lower KL's. The placing of orders at targets and pointing in opposite direction may be better today and next few. Good luck in low vol whipsaw rig show today.

Note

In the Turn Zone or above, NAZ is showing early signs of Push/Pull on the way. Look for Rig Pop in O/R or before and any stall is Strong Short and then the P/P has to show up and stay, otherwise BTD/FOMO Forever.

Note

TZ turning, Again O/N is only gains.

Note

TZ rolling and turning, may be top as we have had many direction changes.

Note

16990 Hold is Log and Break is Short

Note

100 Point move up from 16970 and/or 100 point move lower from 17008

Note

17008-970 just wait for true break out, shake outs will happen until last minute

Note

Last half minute, Just tricks and games and I wonder why

Note

SZ's below are next targets

Note

1,000 points on FUMES, BTD. We rode up but now extended, STR Sell The Rip (or snail lift)

Note

Air Pocket and Divergence all in one

Note

Turbulence with the AP, 50 candles up and 3-4 lower, bogus ratio for the BTD's.

Note

Old SZ's taken out , many more below and a few new higher. STR (snail lift).

Note

12/20 Now that they held NAZ up yesterday until final minute of day and popped it high in O/N, the drop at 2am is about 100 points and this has expanded the range. Look for the NAZ to play inside the range before next move. ML of O/N is 17004 and KLOD is 16988.

Note

Today is the 3rd time that the NAZ has been under the KLOD is past 10 days. Should NAZ not get back above and stay, that will be a very Bearish signal and open up the door to 16600 1st.

Note

Vol is 10% higher than yesterday at same time, that would be the selling. KLOD is rejecting for now.

Note

GOOG, CL, 10YN and BTC are all up and will help to stabilize the NAZ. These need to drop or stall out. Goog Luck today and play the games and tricks, they will be active all day long.

Note

Looking for stall out back to KLOD Test and Drop, not looking bullish today.

Note

Watch O/N high, major divergence here at 17040

Note

Only play is below O/N may drop, not buying up here as may pop and snap.

Note

NAZ will have to break under ML O/R under 17045 and then KOD or may pop back up.

Note

Again, many candles up and only a few to drop it.

Note

NAZ may try Outside day reversal here, no bounce at KLOD

Note

16911 is Reversal target

Note

Let it run, may not pop back at all

Note

Drop Test

Note

Live Post for 12/21 since it is getting exciting with some movement.

Note

12/26 Final week, I may have mostly public posts for followers as it will be slow to narrow unless we see a last minute decent drop.

Trade closed manually

Closing this out as I will post each day until 2024.

MAZing

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.

MAZing