Mag 7 Earnings and Fed Playbook
E-mini S&P (September) / E-mini NQ (September)
S&P, last week’s close: Settled at 5499.00, up 57.75 on Friday and down 54.75 on the week
NQ, last week’s close: Settled at 19,174.50, up 182.25 on Friday and down 538.50 on the week
We are embarking on one of the most pivotal weeks of the year. Earnings announcements from the largest companies surround the Federal Reserve’s policy decision Wednesday afternoon. There is only a 4.1% probability the Federal Reserve will cut rates at this meeting, but the committee is expected to telegraph a September rate cut. In fact, the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool is pricing in a September cut with 100% certainty. As for earnings, according to The Transcript there are 171 companies in the S&P 500 reporting this week. Furthermore, four out of the top five or four out of the top six (if you combine GOOG and GOOGL). Bill Baruch joined the CNBC Halftime Report on Thursday, where he reiterated his confidence in strong big tech earnings that will help alleviate waning confidence and reinvigorate its outperformance.
E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures again tested a critical area of major three-star resistance at 5528.75-5533.25 and 19,356-19,390 this morning. These pockets of resistance are the first in a wave of thick overhead supply the indices must chew through in order to recoup the July 23rd close, when GOOG and TSLA reported. The July 23rd settlement aligns to create rare major four-star resistance. To the downside, price action associated with a choppy Thursday and Friday trade helps build out supports, most importantly that which aligns with Friday’s weekly settlement; while holding above here, we see the trade most constructive in attempting higher prices.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 5528.75-5533.25***, 5542.75***, 5551.50-5553.75**, 5572.75-5576.75***, 5599.25-5611****
Pivot: 5522.25
Support: 5508.50-5509.25**, 5499-5501.75***, 5478.50-5482***, 5470-5472.50**, 5448.25-5453.25***, 5439-5441***, 5432.50**, 5391.25-5398.25***, 5366.50-5370.50****
NQ (September)
Resistance: 19,356-19,390***, 19,496-19,501**, 19,654-19,686***, 19,728-19,751**, 19,809-19,828**, 19,925-19,933****
Pivot: 19,250
Support: 19,159-19,174***, 19,104**, 19,040-19,060**, 18,945-18,992****, 18,883**, 18,727***, 18,645-18,675****, 18,482-18,500***
Micro Bitcoin (August)
Last week’s close: Settled at 68,775, up 3,385 on Friday and 530 on the week
Bias: Bullish/Neutral
Resistance: 71,125***
Pivot: 69,090
Support: 68,775***, 65,390***
Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: tradingview.com/cme/
Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
S&P, last week’s close: Settled at 5499.00, up 57.75 on Friday and down 54.75 on the week
NQ, last week’s close: Settled at 19,174.50, up 182.25 on Friday and down 538.50 on the week
We are embarking on one of the most pivotal weeks of the year. Earnings announcements from the largest companies surround the Federal Reserve’s policy decision Wednesday afternoon. There is only a 4.1% probability the Federal Reserve will cut rates at this meeting, but the committee is expected to telegraph a September rate cut. In fact, the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool is pricing in a September cut with 100% certainty. As for earnings, according to The Transcript there are 171 companies in the S&P 500 reporting this week. Furthermore, four out of the top five or four out of the top six (if you combine GOOG and GOOGL). Bill Baruch joined the CNBC Halftime Report on Thursday, where he reiterated his confidence in strong big tech earnings that will help alleviate waning confidence and reinvigorate its outperformance.
E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures again tested a critical area of major three-star resistance at 5528.75-5533.25 and 19,356-19,390 this morning. These pockets of resistance are the first in a wave of thick overhead supply the indices must chew through in order to recoup the July 23rd close, when GOOG and TSLA reported. The July 23rd settlement aligns to create rare major four-star resistance. To the downside, price action associated with a choppy Thursday and Friday trade helps build out supports, most importantly that which aligns with Friday’s weekly settlement; while holding above here, we see the trade most constructive in attempting higher prices.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 5528.75-5533.25***, 5542.75***, 5551.50-5553.75**, 5572.75-5576.75***, 5599.25-5611****
Pivot: 5522.25
Support: 5508.50-5509.25**, 5499-5501.75***, 5478.50-5482***, 5470-5472.50**, 5448.25-5453.25***, 5439-5441***, 5432.50**, 5391.25-5398.25***, 5366.50-5370.50****
NQ (September)
Resistance: 19,356-19,390***, 19,496-19,501**, 19,654-19,686***, 19,728-19,751**, 19,809-19,828**, 19,925-19,933****
Pivot: 19,250
Support: 19,159-19,174***, 19,104**, 19,040-19,060**, 18,945-18,992****, 18,883**, 18,727***, 18,645-18,675****, 18,482-18,500***
Micro Bitcoin (August)
Last week’s close: Settled at 68,775, up 3,385 on Friday and 530 on the week
Bias: Bullish/Neutral
Resistance: 71,125***
Pivot: 69,090
Support: 68,775***, 65,390***
Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: tradingview.com/cme/
Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.