April Fools Day is right around the corner.
Anyone foolish enough to think NQ, on this date, will close over 15,200? Call me foolish but I have a high conviction this price point will be met by this date. Should this happen momentum or the lagging span (within the rules of Ichimoku) will be above price on the weekly close which could create a squeeze the weeks following to bring QQQ/NQ to new ATH's by May.
From a charting perspective, I have noticed what appears to be an expanding triangle that began the week of Aug 16, 2021. Expanding triangles have a 5 pattern swing to them. My chart above shows us to be on leg 4 of the pattern which typically ends with a violent swing up and ends at 5. From a Fib Sequencing perspective, leg 0-1 lasted 3 weeks, leg 2-3 lasted 5 weeks and I anticipate leg 4-5 lasting 8 weeks.
From a time perspective I'm targeting next week as a possible bottom on NQ as follows:
1. If you use Fib Sequencing, March 16th is Day 55 from the NQ double top reversal candle made on Dec 28th 2021. Days 21 & 34 within this sequencing produced reversals but those reversals have shown to have failed so now I'm looking for day 55 (or around this date) to possibly set up a signal.
2. The Covid crash bottomed out on week 6. Next week is week 12 from the NQ Double Top made the week of Dec 27th. Doubling the "time" of the Covid crash has symmetry.
Because I believe "time" to be the most important factor I am sitting on my hands this week observing price and how we close out weeks end. I do believe price on the NQ could dip a little below 12K but I'm not counting on this happening, my target on NQ low right now is 12,235. IMO I believe price needs to stay "just above" the 50% retracement from the Covid low to make a new ATH in May. In addition, I believe we must "close" price on the weekly ABOVE my non-horizontal dark pink lower line...a closing below this line will negate my thesis. Wicks are okay.
The key for this to play out is that we need to get the lagging span/momentum back above price on the weekly and April Fools just seems like the perfect day to give the bears the middle finger.