NASDAQ-100. A POTENTIAL SYMMETRY PERHAPS IS THE NEXT BIG THING
Updated
Policymakers at the U.S. central bank on Wednesday held interest rates steady, although Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave investors some hope by signaling a September rate cut could be on the table.
A Day later stocks heavily sold off Thursday (again), with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) tumbling nearly 500 points, as investors’ fears over a recession surfaced.
Some fresh data stoked fears over a possible recession and the notion that the Federal Reserve could be too late to start cutting interest rates. Initial jobless claims rose the most since August 2023. And the ISM manufacturing index, a barometer of factory activity in the U.S., came in at 46.8%, worse than expected and a signal of economic contraction.
After these releases, the 10-year Treasury yield dropped below 4% for the first time since February.
These weak data releases come a day after central bank policymakers chose to keep rates at the highest levels in two decades, when Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave investors some hope by signaling a September rate cut could be on the table.
Labor situations is on the radars also, as fresh unemployment data expected on Friday, August 2.
The Federal Reserve risks further weakening the US economy and tanking US stock markets.
As the unemployment rate has risen in recent months, it has fueled speculation that the strong labor market is cracking and pointing to potential trouble ahead, with full-time employment in the US declining by about 1.23 million jobs over the past 12 months, and part-time employment adding about 1.52 million jobs (May'24 data).
While much of the attention of financial analysts in June and July 2024 was focused on the Fed's rhetoric, inflation and manufacturing statistics, the US unemployment rate, which is recovering from its 55-year lows, is much greater thing.
In technical terms, June'24 will be the 4th month in a row, US unemployment rate is above its 26-week (6-month) simple moving average.
Historical backtest analysis of the entire history of data since the end of World War II indicates that the onset of a recession in the United States is just around the corner.
In any case, such labor market symptoms have always, in all cases without exception, signaled either an already occurring or an imminent US recession.
The main graph (Nasdaq-100 Futures cont. contract) indicates on a potential symmetry for further bearish development. with the nearest target roughly S14'000 mark (that is corresponding also to 5-years SMA).
A Day later stocks heavily sold off Thursday (again), with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) tumbling nearly 500 points, as investors’ fears over a recession surfaced.
Some fresh data stoked fears over a possible recession and the notion that the Federal Reserve could be too late to start cutting interest rates. Initial jobless claims rose the most since August 2023. And the ISM manufacturing index, a barometer of factory activity in the U.S., came in at 46.8%, worse than expected and a signal of economic contraction.
After these releases, the 10-year Treasury yield dropped below 4% for the first time since February.
These weak data releases come a day after central bank policymakers chose to keep rates at the highest levels in two decades, when Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave investors some hope by signaling a September rate cut could be on the table.
Labor situations is on the radars also, as fresh unemployment data expected on Friday, August 2.
The Federal Reserve risks further weakening the US economy and tanking US stock markets.
As the unemployment rate has risen in recent months, it has fueled speculation that the strong labor market is cracking and pointing to potential trouble ahead, with full-time employment in the US declining by about 1.23 million jobs over the past 12 months, and part-time employment adding about 1.52 million jobs (May'24 data).
While much of the attention of financial analysts in June and July 2024 was focused on the Fed's rhetoric, inflation and manufacturing statistics, the US unemployment rate, which is recovering from its 55-year lows, is much greater thing.
In technical terms, June'24 will be the 4th month in a row, US unemployment rate is above its 26-week (6-month) simple moving average.
Historical backtest analysis of the entire history of data since the end of World War II indicates that the onset of a recession in the United States is just around the corner.
In any case, such labor market symptoms have always, in all cases without exception, signaled either an already occurring or an imminent US recession.
The main graph (Nasdaq-100 Futures cont. contract) indicates on a potential symmetry for further bearish development. with the nearest target roughly S14'000 mark (that is corresponding also to 5-years SMA).
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August 2, 2024Payrolls growth slowed sharply to 114,000 in July; unemployment rate rise to 4.3 %.
The U.S. economy added significantly fewer jobs than anticipated in July, in another sign of a cooling in labor demand in the world's largest economy.
Nonfarm payrolls came in at 114,000 last month, down from a revised 179,000 in June, according to Labor Department data on Friday. Economists had seen the July number at 177,000.
The June reading was revised down heavily also, from an initial mark of 206,000.
Employment continued to trend up in health care, in construction, and in transportation and warehousing, while information lost jobs.
Meanwhile, the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, up from 4.1% in June, climbing in each of the past three months. Month-on-month average hourly wage growth came in at 0.2%, below the expected 0.3%.
Data released earlier this week showed that U.S. job openings fell modestly in June, while new applications for unemployment benefits increased to an 11-month high last week.
The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range on Wednesday, where it has been since last July, but also opened the door to reducing borrowing costs as soon as its next meeting in September.
In the accompanying statement the Fed softened the description of inflation and said the risks to employment were now on a par with those of rising prices.
Perhaps a cooling labor market will provide the Federal Reserve with more ammunition to cut interest rates from more than two-decade highs, potentially at its September meeting.
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August 5, 2024
Financial markets continue its declines on Monday premarket session.
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August 5, 2024
Nasdaq-100, 99 out of 100 components are RED today.
NVDA is the biggest loser. ON Semi is positive only.
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August 12, 2024
👉 TRADING ACTIVE
👉 KAAA-AAR-RRRRR
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