Nasdaq HTF Directional Bias/Narrative (Big Fat Drop Incoming)
Minimum it's going to start reaching down into the 1600s. All time frames are Bearish. Monthly Is Bearish, Weekly, Daily, 4H. Honestly wouldn't be surprised if this went much lower, but all I need is 1600's.
My main reasoning for this: Every time frame is Bearish. Can't really describe the other reasoning, it's just based mostly off of repeating patterns in the Market, seen the same thing hundreds of times, additionally it'll eventually want to retrace deep into a Discounted price, below Equilibrium (First Red Line). Pretty obvious, if I were able to control price, I would want price to drop into a Discount before entering longs. Why get in at a terrible expensive price when you can get in cheap.
There's only a few Scenarios that can possibly play out: it rallies and creates a New ATH before reaching into my desired level, meaning it would need to retrace at some price where it's currently near. This is Unlikely at least at this very moment.
It won't consolidate here. So that rules out that scenario. Market Moves from Expansion -> Retracement -> Expansion. Not Expansion ->Consolidation ->Expansion.
Last Scenario: What I'm anticipating. This is the Reversal, this is the drop. We got the Expansion lower with solid displacement which shows Smart Moneys Participation. Meaning if Smart money Got in at the ATH, they need a counterparty (Sell Stops) to offset distribute their position, first Major Objective being 17,374. This will be my Main Objective, the reasoning is: it can go a bit lower, Targeting the Monthly Inefficiency right below that, below Equilibrium. Additionally, right below that low there's also -2 & -2.5 Standard Deviation Projection.
My main reasoning for this: Every time frame is Bearish. Can't really describe the other reasoning, it's just based mostly off of repeating patterns in the Market, seen the same thing hundreds of times, additionally it'll eventually want to retrace deep into a Discounted price, below Equilibrium (First Red Line). Pretty obvious, if I were able to control price, I would want price to drop into a Discount before entering longs. Why get in at a terrible expensive price when you can get in cheap.
There's only a few Scenarios that can possibly play out: it rallies and creates a New ATH before reaching into my desired level, meaning it would need to retrace at some price where it's currently near. This is Unlikely at least at this very moment.
It won't consolidate here. So that rules out that scenario. Market Moves from Expansion -> Retracement -> Expansion. Not Expansion ->Consolidation ->Expansion.
Last Scenario: What I'm anticipating. This is the Reversal, this is the drop. We got the Expansion lower with solid displacement which shows Smart Moneys Participation. Meaning if Smart money Got in at the ATH, they need a counterparty (Sell Stops) to offset distribute their position, first Major Objective being 17,374. This will be my Main Objective, the reasoning is: it can go a bit lower, Targeting the Monthly Inefficiency right below that, below Equilibrium. Additionally, right below that low there's also -2 & -2.5 Standard Deviation Projection.
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