Short

Updated

NQ Short (01-13-25)

NAZ in the Danger Zone and selling volume is back. 20,990 is the Edge, Long above and Short below. Currently struggling is U Turn Zone #1, white arrow is lift target for retest & rejection. Yellow arrow is weekly lower target. Passing TLX 20,758 and landing on 20,300. Should the NAZ stay under 758, look month end target of 20,000. Expect Overnight Rigging lifts, Dead Zone retracements and any off session prop games that have been working for years. 2 way trading is back.

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10YN Update, 5% yield is target and potential Long signal for the NAZ.

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The NAZ or any index will retest lower after a run up, the need result has always been a rebound to a new high. The below chart is from the 2/15/21 Post and will show retest levels. The current Danger Zone TL started form the #2 level retest in 10/22.

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Current bounce since 10/22.

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We will see a decent lower retest at some point, this may be it or not. It will show up and usually after a decent run up. We ran up over 110% since level 2 hit. 17,000 retest would not be out of the picture, we almost did that in 8/24 or maybe that was the retest and higher and higher we go. Since you can trade either way, it does not matter. 2 way trading is back and sideways is great until we break out of any range.

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O/N is the BOSS and is changing its tune. Reminder the New limit down Overnight is now -7% (old was -5%). What took months to lift up no volume snail moves can erased in hours (when you sleep most likely). Ben saying for years that the Price Action has changed and the Reg Session is 80-90% sideways to lower movement. Anyway, they -1.5% or 300 point O/N drop is below TLX 20,758 and I added 20,454 just above TLX 20,300. Above the shaded Box is the break out of triple bottom and now NAZ is 500-600 points inside the Danger Zone. 450-300 would be next lower U Turn Zone should NAZ say under TLX 20,758. Go Fed, Sell the Dip/FOMO, Help.

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Back in early December I was expecting the 1/13/25 week to be the start of the drop, it is here and started last week. You know it will pop back up and retest near 200-300 with and off session help or Gov't related events/news. LL/HH's are all you need to watch and KL's as targets. New view of O/N IDS35:

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TLX 758 is holding. Watch for sideways rotation.

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Just remember, Monday's want to go up 1st. Need to see if still active.

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O/R drop test to O/N low, hold is a Long Scalp.

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NAZ is struggling to get lower, pop on way.

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popcorn

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O/N range and under 870 is short zone.

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May see quick air pocket hook short under 870

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Range after 870 rejection and back up.

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870 rejecting again.

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Should NAZ stay inside range, most likely a U Turn attempt in O/N

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Sideways under KL 870, many time this will pop up near close or O/N. The other side is consolidation and exits being placed, then the drop. You just can't tell which is being set up.

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Divergence developing, usually will set up a drop but Long Monday play is trying to stay alive. BTD/FOMO

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STD is slowing, this may play out in O/N and HAS to pass 990. Under 990, coming back into range.

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Reg Session stays inside O/N range, The Boss. O/N will try and lift it as much as possible.

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1/14 Update, Yesterday's price action had that lift look, has turned into another slow U Turn. The way these happen is simple, they go sideways in a Reg Session and then lift into a Close or O/N. They have to pass previous KL's (on the way up), this is done in the Dead Zone or O/N or both. The 1st 30-60 minutes (reg session) will usually be the only selling PA of the entire day. Just watch pattern and look for jerky push/pull for the short side, no P/P stay Long. Rigged and F-M play is still active. This pop up may be a Pump/Dump, if so we have to see the reaction in the Reg Session.

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Looks like Yellow Arrow may play out. You have to ask, why did the O/N pump the NAZ up prior to drop? You will see this over and over as these lifts just stabilize and offset the drops. They also provide buyers to the sellers that want out. This is the Whipsaw.

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Today may be the upside down indicator day as the NAZ lifts higher. If so, these are followed by a drop, usually.

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21,020 will need to hold or lower we go.

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Watch 21,020, Long above and Short below.

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Range bound

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Staying under Yellow Arrow range.

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TLX 758 is in play with stall out.

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So far you can see that the O/N range is all we have, Reg Session just can not lift it higher and hold it. This is the drop offset trick that will be used every night.

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Very bad when Dead Zone has no strength (up), usually 2nd move up after O/N. Today is mixed or balanced.

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Should NAZ not hold or U Turn we may see a decent drop to OED and in O/N into tomorrow. A Hold is sideways until O/N Rig show.

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NAZ is failing to get back up through prior U Turn Zone. Keep an eye on and any break through will go higher and potentially above the Danger Zone TL.

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The circles are Failed Auctions and is when the price will stall out and change direction.

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You have to look for it, the O/N lift will usually set up the Pump/Dump and confuse you with the move. The O/N is what makes trading difficult.

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840 is yesterday O/R high, will have to hold.

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840-920 is next range test.

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840 stop clean out or drop.

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820 is a Long as this is most likely a U Turn trade on the edge.

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Let 820 Long run to 920.

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stop at 820

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Most Mag7 lower but NAZ will not drop, crazy rigged and then you have the O/N magic show.

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If stopped reload or let play out back later. U Turn or big drop here.

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Long shake out and pop.

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Circle to the left a Rejection under O/R ML, that may play out here and is usually will catch many off guard. Just be aware.

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FA Block at 960, will hit and pop or fall.

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Nasty

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Still a potential U Turn, this is normal.

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All Yellow Arrow may pop. Then O/N Rig

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820 and above is Long.

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O/N blast off next.

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21,050 pass should try 21,300, Go O/N Rig Team. No pass, get out and revisit.

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Playbook, O/N up, Open down Dead Zone up. Nothing has changed, just follow the flow until it breaks.

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Post update, after 2 days the NAZ is under The BOX, Danger Zone TL and U Turn Zone #1. The long wicks on past 2 candles does show buying. Next move would be the attempt through the U Turn barrier. The O/N will have to work hard and get it above since the Reg Session usually sells off.

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1/15 Update, Banks are reporting and next move is a Long back through major resistance to DZ TL. This should set up next Friday-Monday play and test, should NAZ get rejected at DZ TL it will drop back under.
This would assume that 20,990 is passed and stays above. I am out today, just giving 1 play here. 990 up Long and under Short (but may not drop much).

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There you go, notice how it is done prior to Reg Session Open and in O/N. This will guarantee that it will break through the resistance barrier. Rigged in O/N, you just have to see it.

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Back through U Turn Zone #1 and to The MOON (until the Reg Session O/R test).

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Mentioned this a week or so ago, seems to be playing out. NAZ will drop and get under the DZ, any Gov't related information (prior to Reg Session) will lift the NAZ back up. Then you get the F-M Play into 1/20 and more Gov't long play as we are all happy and such. Should that not play out, the Reg Session does not seem to hold any lifts or create any lifts. Just watch the DZ TL Zone.

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Pull back under 21,400.

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265 is target

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Dropping, may bounce Dead Zone clowns.

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testing O/N Rig High

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Back later, nothing new in Reg Session. All O/N Prop Play.

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NDX has a Gap up from todays O/N, may see Gap Fill, drop to fill gap.

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265 needs to hold this PB.

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Garbage and O/N Noise, no strength in Reg Session. Do not chase the fake PA.

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21,200 under 265. 265 Hit. This will most likely not break day high. And I wanted to take day off, lift is selling off.

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265 hold and pop is bullish and may see follow through in O/N, until next drop test most likely tomorrow O/R. 265-400 is range to watch. Drama and theatrics continue with most lifting in Off Session.

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Only caution long here is that the NAZ is stationary (no buying).

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Just feeling like O/N rig to F-M, Gov't News (Monday) back to Box Top move is cooking. Same tricks are working with News, O/N and off session plays. Drop moves look good and have strength, just not holding. Major Flush is needed like the Pop Up we just saw (pre Open).

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Majority of pump was O/N, potential next moves.

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1/16 Update, O/N Pump/Stall, Flat. Watch 350 and under, 380 is large FA block so U Turn above 350. NAZ may try 21,700, which is ML Mid Level Box. Under DZ TL we may see a decent drop. Today may be sideways to F-M Long rally into Presidential Inaugural or buy the rumor / sell the event on that one. NAZ continues to primarily only lift in O/N, let's see what the Reg Session does today.

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Watch near 380 U Turn.

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O/N Pump/Dump to Pop or Drop at 400-380

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380 Hit and hold. May retest of just Go.

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Long on 354 Hold.

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Above 354 should be Dead Zone Rocket up to ML O/R and O/N High. Under 354 is strong Short.

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354 to 433 next test.

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ML hit and stop at 380-400 or so just in case.

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Trail the lift. Clowns.

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NAZ lifts with ease and struggles to get lower.

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DZ TL Bounce, watch the PA near the TL.

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ML O/R retest and Shake out. Needs to stay above ML.

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Sideways to the O/N, back later. NAZ staying under ML 433 is short signal of potential drop and will be fast.

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There it is.

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Danger Zone Warning

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NAZ at fork in the road.

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The Diablo is back, do not mess with the Diablo

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FYI, Monday the markets are closed so the Friday-Monday may be off. Tuesday is DC Inaugural, may be U-Turn on any drop or fake out the BTD/FOMO's. O/N vs Reg Session Price Action is like comparing Fools Gold to Gold. Anyway, NAZ always appears to struggle lower I am waiting for that to change.

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The arrow is the Pre Open 300 point 5 minute move. This is what is the only growth or what is hold up the NAZ. Not real solid support, kind of like sand or mud. Should NAZ go inside this, it will drop.

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Another one and look what the NAZ did in the Reg Session.

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Just could not pass the Diablo. Lets see if it gets through in the O/N or Rig Session.

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Looks like the break under the Danger Zone TL last week and now pop back and back under may be setting up a deeper drop into the DZ. NAZ just needs to get into the 5 minute 300 point pop zone. Under KL 354, follow yellow arrow to the left.

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Apple, 1st M7 to break lower? Will a few of the 6 others follow?

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NAZ now well under KL 240, Quicksand.

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1/17 Update, Clearly we can identify that the Reg Sessions sell and the O/N Sessions Prop/Lift the NAZ. The white arrows are O/N and yellow Reg Session. Today is Friday and these will usually go straight up in to Monday Close. Monday is Closed and Tuesday is Gov't Event. Saying that this or today may be a huge O/N Pump into Reg Session and into Tuesday. Why else does the O/N Pump to Reg Session Dump pattern keep playing out? Danger Zone TL is Long above and Short below but expect rotation.

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You can also notice how the NAZ could not get through Diablo (Red TL), gets through in O/N. NAZ may be 2 way trading but primarily 1 direction per session (O/N or Reg). Once the direction changes in a session, look inside range of 21,500 - 21,000 as next target until breakout

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All O/N and looking at 21,700 now. Just amazing with how the O/N is used. Really need to see what Reg Session does with this.

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Large FA zone 350-400, may retest in O/R.

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May be the Pump/Dump of all P/P's or just another Friday-Monday Drop Offset rally.

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1st retest.

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KL 570 and under is a Drop.

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Today is looking like a short covering clean out test, stall out will drop and snail lift will climb. May not see anything lower until next week. Notice that the Reg Session is inside O/N range.

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Other play maybe Outside Day Reversal. This may set up nicely for that. The idea is that the yesterday high is taken out and the next move will take out yesterday low. Unlikely but always possible and a great way to break typical Friday-Monday Long Play.

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10YN, may be a signal with drop over next few days.

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May see decent drop under 21,600 stall out. Just keep an eye on this.

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Anyway, 21,600 will see big move when it breaks. Not sure on direction.

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Turd and Drop zone on stall out. These moves stick out like a "Turd in a Punchbowl"

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Just watch the Turd Zone. These can take some time to play out.

Trade closed manually

NAZ needed the U Turn badly and got in the O/N on a Friday. All gains are Pre Open. No Rig in O/N and the NAZ would of been in a free fall. All around the Danger Zone TL, done here and have a great weekend. May see gap up or below over long weekend. NAZ may go sideways to the EOD.

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Going Short with hold until next week. Major Edge Trade. Stop at 21,700

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Think this is connected to options and weekly expiration games.

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Stop at 655, just in case. may reload until next move if stopped.

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Looking for a rejection here and fall back.

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All Indexes should give back half of gains by the Close. If not, then early next week.

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Apple needs to go negative, up .30% now.

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630 now is drop or pop to stop out.

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Stop moved to 725 and Short add at 640

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Needs to get under 565 or may pop back up.

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Just not feeling the strength as all Pre Open and nothing gained in Reg Session. Feels like a drop offset for next week. Will hold these as next week feels like a head fake. NAZ just dropped 50 points in 2 minutes.

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NDX, White is Thursday Close and Yellow is GAP (away during O/N) on Friday. Index could not be sold in Reg Session because of the O/N, that is the point. This just confuses the machines. Need to see a Reg Session Rocket next or lower we go in both O/N and Reg Session.

MAZing

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MAZing