NQ Range (12/16/24)
Updated
Changed the call to Range from Short (looking Short, still). I would buy into the long side if the gains did not primarily happen outside of the Reg Session. Seems light, rigged and soft. FOMO and chase during the no - low volume final weeks, probably my last weekly post of the year. This week: Long above 21,885 and Short below. Friday-Monday Rig Long has stalled and will resume on Monday with O/N Pump/Dump into the Open, that reaction is key for price action this week.
AI, B Coin, Go Fed, Mag 7 are all leveraged and extended. Let us/me see some power in the Reg Session and I will get on board to the LONG side. Will not based off up moves in the Overnight that fizzle out in the Reg Session.
AI, B Coin, Go Fed, Mag 7 are all leveraged and extended. Let us/me see some power in the Reg Session and I will get on board to the LONG side. Will not based off up moves in the Overnight that fizzle out in the Reg Session.
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200 point range today for break out move, 885-685. NAZ is up 100 points in the O/N and Monday 2nd half of F-M Long move may play out or we have another O/N Pump/Dump and the NAZ will drop back to retest 685. Nothing has changed with O/N being The BOSS and controlling the show. This should continue through Year End and 1st week of 2025.
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Pump/Dump, back to 21,800
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21,950 and under is a Short. Reg Session to drop test. NAZ to stay under TL
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O/N levels are the targets, H/M/LNote
H/M/L
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PMI out and not looking great. Should see a drop test. Riggers will get you to chase.Note
950 Stop clean out and drop or Dead Zone Rig Pop.
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Air Pocket drop developing.
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Need to go back to odd Reg Session strength on Friday and the Sunday Monday O/N lift, not following the mystery.Note
Drop or no volume lift at 21,980-00
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Divergence to AP, Drop usually will follow.
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Back later, will place stop at 22,010 and let it run. Should go back inside O/N Range. Note
Longs are trapped. This will need to pick up speed or will go back up with ease.
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Back up and stop at 22,050
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Adding Short at 22,020, Stop at 22,075
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Typical Monday, looking for drop prior to Fed Day and looking for 1st drop at a stall out. Note
10YN, still dropping and interesting.
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stopped, back on looking for 22,035 test with adding short at level, under 22,035.Note
Nasty snail lift day.Note
No stop and will add all way up to 22,300.
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Loading more at 22,120, Short.Note
Stay Short until Fed Day release. Tough but use a stop if you are nervous. Note
adding short at 22,140Note
Snail up and Jet Crash Lower. 22,035 is 100 point 1st move lower. NAZ usually moves in 100 point segments. Note
Wait, Apple may have a thinner I Phone. Breaking news, that may pop the NAZ. That is all it takes in FOMO world. Note
That was a Joke, FYI.Note
350 point move and over half in Reg Session, that is a plus on the bull side. May be early on Short. Just can't see NAZ popping another 200-300 in O/N, that would be a stretch.Note
Crazy, 10YN is lower and Ticks have been negative most of the day. Just not sure what is or continues to lift the NAZ. Get a couple Mag 7 moving up and that is all it takes.
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3 hours up and gone in 10 minutes. This is what they do. Let it pick up some and hang on.
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12/17 Update, NQ1 is off so you need to view NQZ. I will use that for charts as all TL's and KL's are on. NAZ did retest the KL 22,035 and popped back up. That hit took off my shorts because it did not stay under KL. When scalping Short against the mega trend you need to take off trades at target hits and do not wait for the big move as it will not usually show up when you need it. Still looking SHORT and feel FED DAY will show a curve ball of pop/drop as the pop will create a great exit level for many that want out.
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10YN is still creating sneaky higher yields. While the snail NAZ move is going higher, the 10YN is doing the same with Yields.
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300 point differential between current NQ and NQ1. KL's are on NDZ chart below and looking for NAZ to get inside the two KL's.
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NQZ not NDZNote
NAZ above 30% YTD return may show snap back move. Since January of 2022 (3 years ago) the NAZ has moved 33% or an average CAGR of 10%. An average of 10% will show a move to 20% or Zero % as an OK move and any move outside will/may retrace back to average. An average is a result of time and not quick peaks or valleys. Do not chase as many underlying stock inside the Index are well above their longer term averages, the stocks are the index. Note
Need to see strong Push/Pull under 22,035 or back up to O/N high.
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Should do it.
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Sideways to lower.
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NAZ is in the middle of range and will hit one of these arrows and show next move. If lower 1st, then upper or vice versa. If lower does not hold then that is the drop that may move some.
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Notice how NAZ keeps hitting KL 22,035Note
Almost and may stay above
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12/18 Update, NAZ did retest near KL 21,885 twice and stayed above. On the Long side, this is how U Turns have developed. Short side will be a major drop under 885 or 685 should a quick drop happen at Fed Release.
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22,035 is rejecting the NAZ. Watch under KL.
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Staying under 22,035, multiple hits and may stay under.
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The Danger Zone is clearly 21,885 and they will do everything to keep it above the zone. Just watch if it goes below and stays below. Above the DZ is Strong Long. Now you know why Thursday, Friday and Monday had the strange lift up. The F-M Long and Short on Tuesday did work out and has been the pattern for months. The O/N does have a new -7% limit down and the last (only) time the O/N has dropped big since 2020 the drop was erased intraday and was not even noticed. Expect to see some more lower O/N sessions by end of 1/25. 2020 had three 5% limit down sessions in the O/N, half of the 1 month drop in 3 days. The pop was purely a result of the Trillions that the Gov't pumped in (not an option next time). Most Mag 7 are vertical, that is not sustainable and should or may produce a decent retest lower (prior to next vertical up). Note
21,685 and under would be decent drop, look for U Turn near and if not get shorter.
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When you have the KL's it is station to station trading.
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590 is next KL under currentNote
Then 475 if we really get going.Note
All stocks are Dead Red on the board. Note
Waiting on NVDIANote
10YN Update, Yields Up
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KL 590 Hit, Pump/Dump and Air Pocket bust
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IDS 27, Blue MA is what to watch, needs to get above and MA will turn White.
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Previous buyers set up this drop (for the sellers).Note
Negative 1200 on ticks, crazyNote
475 may hold
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475 Hit, out
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Ticks negative 1500, may be bottom or crazy break lowerNote
NVDIA is negative, break lower
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Days up and Minutes down. NAZ is at 21,000 and did turn at Drop Zone on Post. The 300 point NQ1 and Current contract is throwing things off. BTD/FOMO and Go Fed.
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21,000 is the real price level on this drop.
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12/19 Update, Yesterday was the twice as far and twice as fast Short Day that I mentioned last week. The O/N propping and stabilizing is easy to see but hard to Short (time) precisely. The Air Pockets show up and stick out (but keep climbing) and you have to short into the trend (while it is climbing). Again, trading has changed over the prior 4-5 years to be 1 way Long with simple tricks & patterns. These fast food type (cheap) moves will kill you or the market eventually. Through in the fact that the Smart Money pro's need the retail BTD/FOMO to open their exit (Long Trap). The NQ1 is 300 points higher that NQZ, Yellow arrow is the actual drop or low and the white arrows are prior Turn Zone Air Pockets that are targets on a further drop. Keep in the the Long move back up and the low volume tricks as we move into a few weeks of nothing price action. The NAZ may lift with same tricks for 2 weeks and drop the entire move in a few hours come the 1st week in January.
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Volume jumped December 16, 17 & 18th, was much lower in prior weeks as the that was the weak buying that played into the heavy selling. We may see another or more weak lift and then heavy selling cycles as the Long exit may be bigger move that plays out over the next month or so. Note
10YN is at its own Danger Zone and may try lower KL, Yields Up and Stock Down.
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Potential pup/dump
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Short Shake Out.
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O/N provided a 250 point cushion, this will continue and the NAZ will need to break under or the index will eventually lift back up with same trick night over night.
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Rigged, this is part of the exit plan which brings buyers into the selling. Whipsaw, should NAZ not drop then buying only is back on. Note
O/N is The BOSS, NAZ will struggle to get lower and lift with ease. Only way the NAZ will drop big and stay down is when the O/N sells off.
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350 point cushion, not 250. So huge range to play in. Note
NDX 3 year CAGR is 10%, 32% this year and the 4.37 drop yesterday took a chuck. Few more big days and 3 year CAGR will get reduced and force some selling (protect gains). NAZ near 19,000-18,000 would be the area of acceleration selling.
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Under 280 is key
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now 160
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10 YN update
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NAZ is moving like crazy, push/pull all over. Look for quick drop once we get to final hour. O/N tonight may be lower for a change. May let this one play out if you are flat.
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Selling should only show up in high volume time periods. Go Long all other times or if selling does not show up in period.
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Notice how only sustained Long moves are only in Pre Reg Session, Selling is counter to Buying in Reg Session. Note
Yesterday drop erased 11-12 prior trading days gain. Just keep in mind that the U Turn play back up is still in play. They O/N rig play up and Friday-Monday long play is still active and a threat to the Shorts.Note
21,195 is KL to watch in O/N, Long above and Short below and play into tomorrow Reg Session.
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Ugly day and under yesterday low. O/N Magic Rig Clowns will have their work cut out tonight.
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Yellow arrow was actual drop of NQ1 and White is next U Turn Zone, below that is the abyss.
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12/19 Overnight is selling off. The chart below will show Reg Session Zones (Yellow Arrows). The Black background are Reg Session, Blue are Final Hour and other shades are Overnight. I have been saying that all moves up have been in Non Reg Session, now look at the Reg Session selling. What I am pointing out is how the NAZ is manipulated with the O/N and the Reg Session usually sells off or will go sideways. When the O/N sells off that will be very bad for the NAZ should the Reg Session not redirect.Note
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12/20 Update TGIF, BTD/FOMO Forever. The NAZ is lower 250 points and NQ1 is still off 300 points vs Current NQZ. Chart below is NQ1 with old TL's and MA's, the O/N low is NQZ value of 20,846 and 20,725 is the potential target and U Turn Zone for today. 21,195 and under Short was call and look for NAZ to try and move back up into range or near 21.195. On chart the yellow circle to the left is a U Turn zone that the NAZ will need to get above in order to go Long. Make sure you understand the 300 point differential vs NQ contracts, the NQ1 is actually 300 points lower than what it shows.
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Lower O/N is an anomaly (like a Bigfoot sighting), just watch out for the -7% Limit Down Bigfoot, it may be lurking as we have not seen a O/N limit down session in 5 trading years and had 3 (-5%) limit down in 2020. That was when to O/N was used to drop the NAZ. The limit down is now -7% so it will be easier to manipulate any drop. Reg Session usually sells off and throw in a few limit down O/N's and we are back at 2024 open price (just a few days would do it).Note
Adjusted Post with NQZ value, NAZ is at 20,846 (thick yellow dash). This is about half way down yellow arrow drop target and KL 20,725 may be 1st U Turn zone to watch.
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S&P Index is due for some sideways price action in 2025 and 4,800 is lower retest and Long above. In other words, may see a drop and below KL 4,800 is only worry. Anything above will just paly in range. We were at 5,100 in August, so doable if NAZ loses concentration and Rig Power. NAZ breaks down and all break down.
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O/N Low on NQZ gets to 20,740 and starts the U Turn process back up 200 points. Watch for sideways to up or retesting KL 720.
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O/N H/M/L, play levels.
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NQZ is done, need to switch to NQ1. Old KL's and MA's are out of whack. Part of the confusion as the lift gets moved in.
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NAZ should stay in O/N range and drop back toward low. You knew that the U Turn zone would kick in.
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Typical U Turn back to KL NQZ 21,195 (mentioned earlier).
Trade closed manually
So far nothing has changed with our typical patterns. Friday-Monday Long Play and predicted U Turn into. The next few low volume weeks should be sideways to up unless this is part of a larger Long Trap. Closing post and have a Great Holiday. I may provide some updates over the next few weeks if things get interesting and the NAZ moves out of this range or gets below the lower U Turn danger Zone. Note
NAZ is near Yesterday high, not expecting much more.
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