Short

Updated

NQ Range (12-11-23)

NAZ in 19 day sideways channel, back near Top (Box with red dash as Mid). The NQ1 vs NQZ is off as the NQ1 had a 200 point pop due to 12/15 expiration. I have attached the current range forecast for NQZ. NQZ lower indicator will show 6 Drops (white arrows) lined up with yellow arrows above. The Stoch O/B or Mid position has consistently set up the drops. Strange activity would be the NQ1 pop, Friday major bounce off Mid Open Range level NQZ 15987, Friday was 2nd lowest volume in past 10 days and U-Turn on Thursday at NQZ level 15800. Just feels like Holiday, Overnight and low volume games are what is working until the hammer drops on the NAZ. Shaded Zone and is Turn Zone and Orange Zones below are Failed Auctions. Lower indicator has a decent "Air Pocket" that needs to fill in for Long or will Drop should Stoch come down and MACD head lower (just like the prior 6 times).

NQZ Contract

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The Post is a weekly range , 12/11 Upper current range is 16065-16100, passing that may see 16200 for Turn. On the downside, I am looking at 15900-800 as we have so many FA's to be retested. With Inflation numbers on Tues and Fed on Wed, the only new today is 10YN Auction. May see normal Monday lift at Open to upper TZ with drop later in day or sideways. Shorting any and all lifts higher for longer hold and 15800 retest for take profit.

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Pre Open, BitCoin, Crude 10YN all Lower, VIX and Dollar Up.

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Friday Range and move that gave away the current "Air Pocket" for a drop.

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Low volume, O/N and max use of the Mag 7 is easy to spot as they lift all indexes/markets. This will shift away at some point and the drop will be significant, the run up back to Channel Top was just another test and may retest even higher prior to drop. Expecting this week and most likely by EOY/OEM. Good luck today and balance of the week. I will leave this post open.

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Monday Pre Open NQZ

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Today NAZ will have a Drop test, we have seen 2-3 past few days and the last one was on Low Volume Fake Move Friday, so that one may not be as creditable. Looking for another major today on Prop Magic Monday.

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Update and a strange one: Things may get whippy today, current volume is 25% lower than Friday's at this time.

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Low volume tends to favor a run up 1st so careful on the short side.

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NAZ hit TZ and may drop as LC Tech Stocks are lower, Close drop should they stay low or negative. This is start or what I was looking for.

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NQZ below for 12/12, The Friday-Monday lift was expected and has been reliable all year. The lift during Holiday type Volume was expected and is typical only to the Long Side (kind of funny). The chart below will provide the range for break out and the NQZ is 200 points lower than NQ! or NQH (That is another advantage to Long side). LC Tech stocks (FAANG) were lower yesterday while NAZ held in, this will not continue and is why the typical games are played to help stabilize the NAZ. Look Short on any stall out and we had 2 days of O/R retest pops, look for 3rd to bust. NAZ is at Turn Zone from Monday chart.

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NQ1 Chart, 1st move short scalp to KLOD or target after knee jerk Pop.

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SZ and FA update, targets for or on any drop.

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8 weeks I have been running stats on the O/N and O/R ranges, Average O/N range is 113 points and the ave O/R is 82, KLOD typically is 5-20 points from ML O/N and Prior day Mid O/R. The O/N has a wider range than O/R and the recent KLOD's have been lower or under O/R's, this may suggest a direction change or drop retest beneath prior day O/R.

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Current 700 point run from channel bottom, this includes the 200 point gap due to contract change (net 500 point run). Looking for NAZ to rest channel Top and Mid channel. 16000-15850

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Current 700 point run from channel bottom, this includes the 200 point gap due to contract change (net 500 point run). Looking for NAZ to rest channel Top and Mid channel. 16000-15850

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At NQH 16490, Current range is 16430-16595

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Watch the Diablo today, any Push/Pull and Good Luck,

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New Channel adjustment

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NAZ will test ML O/R from under and turn Bearish.

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PA today has flipped with flow, getting lift and then drop pattern. Past few days was the opposite with Drop - lift. Watch close for Drop out of Dead Zone lift

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Seems like NAZ is waiting for an excuse to drop, 30YR Bond auction at 12 may do it.

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Only play is not hit at KL 16593, then short back to KL 522 or 470 or 430
Can go Long to KL 593 if you dare. Hard to believe the same mid day games are still working.

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Just Short it at ATH, that is where it is going

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I have the arrow at 1PM as that is when it will get going. I normally do not trade on Fed Day, I still have short on as this will have to retest lower. The lower move will be to fuel a higher move (should higher be the direction) and to balance out the flow. The buying will need selling to fuel the buying. The weakness and strange intraday PA is not consistent with a strong move up, I have mentioned many times that the best (odd) moves are made near Holidays, long weekends, final few minutes of day or O/N. That is what we have seen since gap up on NQ Contract change. The circle on chart below will show a wide range of PA, mostly selling. We have been seeing huge volume during O/R with little during Dead Zone, but DZ keeps lifting. This flow will be retested and change direction with just some more selling.

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Look for the KLOD to set up hold or drop to boxes below. The ATH hit 1st may target these levels 2nd. Range here is most likely for CPI and Fed Rate. IDS50 below.

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Narrow range moves set up huge moves out of the sideways PA, pick correct. Today will most likely see both sides, just not sure on pattern 1st.

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You may want to view prior Posts and charts. Everyday the NAZ will move in a 200 point range with whipsaw moves around O/N range then O/R and use prior day H/L's to target or bounce off. We need to capture some of that movement. This is why I like the Edge trades. These trade in opposite direction of trend at the EDGE. On ET's use close stop and aim at KL under/above your entry. Everyday is the same, over and over and over. We never see any 1 way long or short days, this is because the market and the Pro's are all confused (no conviction or volume). WE have to wait for a Fed Day or some report to create the volume spike to trade, after we get no movement.

MAZing

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MAZing