Analysis:
Looking at the NASDAQ 100 E-mini Futures (NQ1!) on the 15-minute chart, we seem to be presenting an interesting setup for a potential counter-trend short, even as our long-term conviction remains firmly bullish.
Long-Term Bullish Thesis:
From a broader perspective, the price action clearly shows a series of "BOS" (Break of Structure) to the upside, indicating sustained bullish momentum. Recent price action, particularly the push through previous resistance levels, reinforces the underlying strength of the market. Our long-term bias is to look for opportunities to go long on dips, aligning with the overall uptrend.
Short-Term Counter-Trend Setup (The Bearish Argument):
However, in the immediate term, we've observed a "MBS" (Market Structure Break) to the downside following a "BOS" to the upside that ran into significant resistance. This indicates a potential short-term shift in momentum. The price has re-entered a previously established demand zone, and the recent rejection from the area marked with the red box and the subsequent downward movement (black candlestick) suggests sellers are stepping in.
Potential Short Entry & Targets:
A counter-trend short opportunity could materialize if the price continues to show weakness from the current levels. The primary target for such a move would be the liquidity below the recent swing low, marked with the '$' symbol, potentially extending towards the 21,200 - 21,150 area (green box). This would be a move to capitalize on the expected short-term pullback.
Invalidation:
This counter-trend short idea would be invalidated if the price decisively breaks above the recent high (the orange dashed line) and sustains above the upper red box, indicating a renewed push to the upside and a continuation of the bullish trend without a significant pullback.
Conclusion:
This setup allows us to potentially capture a short-term bearish move against the prevailing bullish trend. It's crucial to manage risk effectively given this is a counter-trend play. Once this short-term correction plays out, we will be eagerly looking for signs of bullish continuation from lower levels to re-enter long positions, aligning with our overarching bullish long-term view.
Looking at the NASDAQ 100 E-mini Futures (NQ1!) on the 15-minute chart, we seem to be presenting an interesting setup for a potential counter-trend short, even as our long-term conviction remains firmly bullish.
Long-Term Bullish Thesis:
From a broader perspective, the price action clearly shows a series of "BOS" (Break of Structure) to the upside, indicating sustained bullish momentum. Recent price action, particularly the push through previous resistance levels, reinforces the underlying strength of the market. Our long-term bias is to look for opportunities to go long on dips, aligning with the overall uptrend.
Short-Term Counter-Trend Setup (The Bearish Argument):
However, in the immediate term, we've observed a "MBS" (Market Structure Break) to the downside following a "BOS" to the upside that ran into significant resistance. This indicates a potential short-term shift in momentum. The price has re-entered a previously established demand zone, and the recent rejection from the area marked with the red box and the subsequent downward movement (black candlestick) suggests sellers are stepping in.
Potential Short Entry & Targets:
A counter-trend short opportunity could materialize if the price continues to show weakness from the current levels. The primary target for such a move would be the liquidity below the recent swing low, marked with the '$' symbol, potentially extending towards the 21,200 - 21,150 area (green box). This would be a move to capitalize on the expected short-term pullback.
Invalidation:
This counter-trend short idea would be invalidated if the price decisively breaks above the recent high (the orange dashed line) and sustains above the upper red box, indicating a renewed push to the upside and a continuation of the bullish trend without a significant pullback.
Conclusion:
This setup allows us to potentially capture a short-term bearish move against the prevailing bullish trend. It's crucial to manage risk effectively given this is a counter-trend play. Once this short-term correction plays out, we will be eagerly looking for signs of bullish continuation from lower levels to re-enter long positions, aligning with our overarching bullish long-term view.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.