NQ Line In the Sand
E-mini S&P (June) / E-mini NQ (June)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 5324.75, up 3.25
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 18,940.50, 64.50
E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures are on their backfoot ahead of the opening bell. As I mentioned in my evening video last night, breadth is at the front of my mind as it has been deteriorating significantly. Without NVDA these two major indices would have already eroded much more. Look no further than the E-mini Dow, which has no true NVDA exposure, trading more than 3.5% from its local high last Tuesday.
Yields are another concern, as the U.S. 10-year is now above 4.5%, the highest since the Friday May 3rd Nonfarm Payroll report. Also, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the odds of more than one rate cut this year have dropped to 35.9% from 49.5% one week ago.
Although we are cautious, and I popped on the CNBC Halftime Report to update viewers with a hedge position on Friday, the trend is undoubtedly still bullish. Therefore, we will continue to hold a slight Bullish Bias as detailed below. However, we are watching yesterday’s intraday low in the E-mini S&P of 5296.75 very closely, and continued action below here will likely encourage added selling. If this is the case, a break below last week’s low and, furthermore, major three-star support at 5260-5264 will Neutralize this Bias in the near-term. Additionally, last Thursday’s settlement in the E-mini NQ, the big reversal day post-NVDA earnings, was 18,696.25 and aligns with the previous record high on March 8th and March 21st as major three-star support. We view a violation and close below here, as well as rare major four-star support at 18,620-18,635, as a negative and clear break of the bullish trend.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 5304.50-5309.75***, 5316-5317.25**, 5324.75-5326***, 5329.25-5331.25***
Pivot: 5296.75
Support: 5285.25-5289.75***, 5273.50-5275**, 5260-5264***, 5241.50**, 5213.50-5216.75***, 5202.25-5204.25***
NQ (June)
Resistance: 18,919-18,946***, 18,977-18,982***, 19,023*, 19,085***, 19,319***
Pivot: 18,819-18,839
Support: 18,775-18,787*, 18,732-18,750**, 18,684-18,709***, 18,620-18,635****, 18,545-18,547**, 18,415-18,485***, 18,336.25-18,348**, 18,266,25-18,293***
Micro Bitcoin (May)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 68,455, down 1,020
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 68,930-69,575***, 70,280-70,435**, 70,840-71,000***, 72,340-72,570
Pivot: 68,250
Support: 67,100-67,585**, 66,280-66,535****, 65,445**, 64,622-64,865***, 61,835-62,801***
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 5324.75, up 3.25
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 18,940.50, 64.50
E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures are on their backfoot ahead of the opening bell. As I mentioned in my evening video last night, breadth is at the front of my mind as it has been deteriorating significantly. Without NVDA these two major indices would have already eroded much more. Look no further than the E-mini Dow, which has no true NVDA exposure, trading more than 3.5% from its local high last Tuesday.
Yields are another concern, as the U.S. 10-year is now above 4.5%, the highest since the Friday May 3rd Nonfarm Payroll report. Also, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the odds of more than one rate cut this year have dropped to 35.9% from 49.5% one week ago.
Although we are cautious, and I popped on the CNBC Halftime Report to update viewers with a hedge position on Friday, the trend is undoubtedly still bullish. Therefore, we will continue to hold a slight Bullish Bias as detailed below. However, we are watching yesterday’s intraday low in the E-mini S&P of 5296.75 very closely, and continued action below here will likely encourage added selling. If this is the case, a break below last week’s low and, furthermore, major three-star support at 5260-5264 will Neutralize this Bias in the near-term. Additionally, last Thursday’s settlement in the E-mini NQ, the big reversal day post-NVDA earnings, was 18,696.25 and aligns with the previous record high on March 8th and March 21st as major three-star support. We view a violation and close below here, as well as rare major four-star support at 18,620-18,635, as a negative and clear break of the bullish trend.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 5304.50-5309.75***, 5316-5317.25**, 5324.75-5326***, 5329.25-5331.25***
Pivot: 5296.75
Support: 5285.25-5289.75***, 5273.50-5275**, 5260-5264***, 5241.50**, 5213.50-5216.75***, 5202.25-5204.25***
NQ (June)
Resistance: 18,919-18,946***, 18,977-18,982***, 19,023*, 19,085***, 19,319***
Pivot: 18,819-18,839
Support: 18,775-18,787*, 18,732-18,750**, 18,684-18,709***, 18,620-18,635****, 18,545-18,547**, 18,415-18,485***, 18,336.25-18,348**, 18,266,25-18,293***
Micro Bitcoin (May)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 68,455, down 1,020
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 68,930-69,575***, 70,280-70,435**, 70,840-71,000***, 72,340-72,570
Pivot: 68,250
Support: 67,100-67,585**, 66,280-66,535****, 65,445**, 64,622-64,865***, 61,835-62,801***
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
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