Hello everyone, today I’m sharing an update on my analysis of the Nasdaq 100, following the bullish bias I previously mentioned in an earlier idea. Below, I’ll break down the reasons behind my perspective and how I plan to take advantage of this movement. Let’s dive into the details!
Why I Remain Bullish on the Nasdaq 100
Institutional and Retail Trader Activity
My indicator of institutional and retail trader data shows that retail traders are selling heavily. Historically, my indicator suggests that the price tends to correct these positions, which reinforces my bullish bias.
Open Interest
My open interest indicator, which tracks the net positions of institutional traders—the ones who truly move the market—shows a clear upward trend in long contracts. This indicates that the big players are positioning themselves for an upward move.
Valuation
My valuation indicator, which compares the Nasdaq to the US dollar, gold, and 10-year US Treasury bonds, points to a clear undervaluation relative to all three. This suggests that the current price is an attractive buying opportunity.
Seasonality
Seasonality also supports my outlook, indicating a bullish trend for the coming months. In my previous idea, I mentioned that I expected a potential low at the beginning of April, specifically around April 4th. Here’s the excerpt from that idea:
"My seasonality analysis, which studies historical patterns at certain times of the year, indicates that the Nasdaq could hit a low around April 4th. If this low is confirmed, it could be the springboard for an upward rebound, and I want to be ready for that moment."
That low appears to have been confirmed, and we’re now seeing the development of the expected bullish move.
Update: Bullish Intent Confirmed
In this new phase, I’ve been waiting for the price to show clear bullish intent through price action. I can now see this in the chart with massive, large candles indicating strong buying momentum. Using advanced technical analysis of supply and demand—or what some in the newer community refer to as an "Order Block"—I’ve identified a key zone to go long in the 16-hour timeframe, as shown in the chart.
My Entry Strategy
I’ll be entering a long position in this demand zone I’ve identified, aiming to capitalize on the bullish momentum that’s forming. I’ll keep this idea updated as the price and my indicators evolve, so stay tuned for more details.
Disclaimer
This is my personal analysis and does not constitute financial advice. Trading carries risks, so always conduct your own research and assess your risk tolerance before making decisions.
Why I Remain Bullish on the Nasdaq 100
Institutional and Retail Trader Activity
My indicator of institutional and retail trader data shows that retail traders are selling heavily. Historically, my indicator suggests that the price tends to correct these positions, which reinforces my bullish bias.
Open Interest
My open interest indicator, which tracks the net positions of institutional traders—the ones who truly move the market—shows a clear upward trend in long contracts. This indicates that the big players are positioning themselves for an upward move.
Valuation
My valuation indicator, which compares the Nasdaq to the US dollar, gold, and 10-year US Treasury bonds, points to a clear undervaluation relative to all three. This suggests that the current price is an attractive buying opportunity.
Seasonality
Seasonality also supports my outlook, indicating a bullish trend for the coming months. In my previous idea, I mentioned that I expected a potential low at the beginning of April, specifically around April 4th. Here’s the excerpt from that idea:
"My seasonality analysis, which studies historical patterns at certain times of the year, indicates that the Nasdaq could hit a low around April 4th. If this low is confirmed, it could be the springboard for an upward rebound, and I want to be ready for that moment."
That low appears to have been confirmed, and we’re now seeing the development of the expected bullish move.
Update: Bullish Intent Confirmed
In this new phase, I’ve been waiting for the price to show clear bullish intent through price action. I can now see this in the chart with massive, large candles indicating strong buying momentum. Using advanced technical analysis of supply and demand—or what some in the newer community refer to as an "Order Block"—I’ve identified a key zone to go long in the 16-hour timeframe, as shown in the chart.
My Entry Strategy
I’ll be entering a long position in this demand zone I’ve identified, aiming to capitalize on the bullish momentum that’s forming. I’ll keep this idea updated as the price and my indicators evolve, so stay tuned for more details.
Disclaimer
This is my personal analysis and does not constitute financial advice. Trading carries risks, so always conduct your own research and assess your risk tolerance before making decisions.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.