Short

NQ Year End Targets (11-02-2024)

Updated

Next week will have an election (with delayed results, most likely) and a Fed Day. Look for the Afterhours and Overnight Long play (to be played). Watch how the Regular Session reacts. We may see one of the two arrows play out or both by Year End. Pop/Drop or Drop/Pop, the O/N may lift with Reg Session selling it off. No O/N lift, look for some heavy duty selling. Go Fed, BTD/FOMO (til 1/25).

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11/4 Monday Pre Open showing (typical) U Turn base/formation, will need to get passed Open Drive sell off and finish Friday-Monday Long Trade/Play.

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Double view for Pre Open, Mentioned 200 and under Short on Friday, KL 170 is what to watch here.

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NAZ doing nothing, 20,080 is KL to watch. Short under and Long above.

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Combo view, 20 minutes to the close. Stayed in range will some pizza was delivered. O/N to go up or sideways into the Tuesday Open Range sell off. Just notice that the typical Friday to Monday Long Pop did not happen. This may let the O/N drop some, careful on the Long side in O/N.

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11/5 Update, NAZ is sideways in the 200 point range. Looking for a huge move out of this range and I do believe that it will be lower after the 1st move higher stalls out. The 2-3 year prop, O/N lifting, Holiday low volume propping (all usual games) will need a retest lower before we see a move higher.

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SHORT under 250

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Needs to get back under 250 for decent drop.

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Adding short at 300. 1st move up and stall out.

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Stop at 350, let it run and walk away.

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Long Trap or bust.

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Air Pocket, should be a ride lower. Add more short if you are brave.

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Delivering some Pizza's as this play out, Just games and tricks. Go Fed.

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Loading more Short, 325 and 240, stop at 400. Upside-down day with drop later or tomorrow.

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Trap playing needs to break, Weeeeeee

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Combo Weeeee

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Loading up, scalp day if you are playing.

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Added more short and stop at 400

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Weeee Update, having fun on Election Day

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Scalped some moves, this is an upside down day so drop is on the way. This is just like the move prior to the 2 day 800 point drop a week or so ago.

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11/6 Update, All O/N pre reg session move Up and typical 1st move. NAZ did retrace the prior 800 point drop, let it try upper target and wait on reaction or Fed Day and any stall out for next move. Do Not Short in the off session, that rig has been play for 3 years.

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SPX, Expected move or retest. Just notice the sideways vs gains. The gains happen in O/N and sideways & drops are in the Reg Session. Same as NAZ but NAZ has concentrated 7 stock rig influence.

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Juts feeling a curveball on the way, careful with the chase or getting in line with the FOMO's & BTD's.

Trade active

KL 20,512 is what to watch over the balance of the week. Under 512 and look for the 890 retest. Yellow arrows are range. O/N will Rig, Pump/Dumps after and Dead Zone Reg Session redirects until these fail to lift. Good luck for balance. I will be out during Fed Day but looking Short on all and every stall out.

Trade closed: target reached

512 Retest is likely on stall out. 10YN is dropping, yield is up.

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20,780 Short to 512.

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Weeee Trade #2, stop at 785.

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Stay Short on Neg Ticks.

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Scalped, stopped and back on. Breakdown should show up soon.

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Even after all this the the O/N appears to be the Long Play session with Reg Session stalling and falling. Just need some selling volume to wash this out and retest below. 3 years of the same play is getting OLD.

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Staying with sideways to lower break this week.

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670 is key lower, needs to get under.

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DZ lift, nothing has changed with moves. Lets' see how Target hit reacts.

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860 Short add, back to 680.

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Loading up Short as it runs to 20,100. Hang on for quick drop. O/N may run back up or fade it. At 20,880 now.

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Short Scalps and waiting for breakaway move.

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Big Action and Bigger Reaction. Looking for the set up. Fed Day should bring it.

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11/7 Update, Fed Day and any Gov't related news/event - Go Long 1st. The forecast did pick this move, I find it hard to believe we are here this quick. 20,500 is a major Key Level that go skipped over with O/N rigging, this KL will be retested, Should it not hold, that would start the journey lower. I do not trade on Fed day, sitting Short from late trade yesterday and will let those run. Chart below is the 2 month idea.

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21,000 is a short. O/N Pump/Dump drop test. KL hit and back to 20,500

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Adding Short at 21,080

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Arrow is range and Dot at 500 is drop target retest.

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Adding as it climbs and will let it ride. Good luck today.

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Air Pocket, I have 500 points to play with on this. Make or Break trade with Fed Release move, looking for Long Trap. Any Selling will drop it big, should that ever actually happen. Old patterns are holding true with O/N and Dead Zone directions. Need a curve ball reality play.

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21,550 is the Stop Limit, Go Fed at end of Dead Zone. Counter trade play. For those that follow me, they se me do this every 3 months or so. When trading becomes to easy it is usually a time for a direction change. Previous U Turn play did play out and I am fighting this one to the Counter Edge.

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AP Target, O/N to bust on Friday-Monday failed Long Trade. Too easy, short covering rally was the lift. Fed did not say a thing, very odd.

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Big view, need some 2 way PA.

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11/8 Update, Looking for some drop tests, yellow arrows are levels to watch and scalp short on hit/holds with reverse scalp trade back up. Repeat this until the stall out appears and stay short again. O/N is lower and Open may sell some with Dead Zone redirect long and Close is random. Fed Day did not move at all. Strange behavior and was to pop a short covering?

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Hours up and minutes down. This is what will shake out the FOMO's. Notice the hours Snail up lift from 9am to 3am and then drop (minutes) back to the origin. This is what will chew up the retail chaser FOMO and will eventually play into the hand of smart money. These are all sets ups to next move and get very wide, just like big action & bigger reaction chart that I posted.

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30M 75WMA MA Chart, 20,500 is the ultimate level that should see a retest for next big move. Out most of day an will check back. Friday-Monday Long trade Not happening is the next signal.

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Normal Friday nothing new since O/N range day. FYI, the NQ Contract volume is extremely low. Not a good thing, usually.

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11/11 Update, They current move was posted by me a month or so ago. The call was that the Election, Feed Day and Holiday Long Only Bias would most likely point up 1st. This would then be followed by ba drop (once we get out of the lower volume sessions. Today has the Bond market closed and then we have Thanksgiving week in 2 weeks. Followed by year end and Christmas. Not expecting much either way until January and that would be a drop test move at that time. NAZ is running on Fumes and will need all it can get out of any off session Long move.

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Garbage on low volume, yellow is drop target. Dead Zone lift or sideways to O/N is likely.

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Looking like Pump/Dump should the Dead Zone not hae the Magic.

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Dead Zone magic with redirect, so typical. Nothing is a straight shot on way lower, only on and always with moves up. This is what needs to change for any short to actually play out.

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11/12 Update, Nothing new and sideways to lower.

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11/13 Update, NAZ is showing nothing and looks like a U Turn may be in the work (up). May need wait until we get near Friday or Holiday or any low volume period when they jack it up. O/N sessions have NOT been moving much and this may be a signal. NAZ needs to O/N Rig in order to stay up.

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Time based charts always show a candle. The Rang or Tick charts only show something if/when it moved. The recent O/N's have had very little actual movement. The up prop may be over and next move may be lower, need to watch any decent drop in Reg Session where the volume is higher.

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Box breakout, just watch head fakes near either edge. Trade in opposite direction at the edge, otherwise.

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Opposite direction trades, indeed.

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O/N Pump/Dump out of the Box. Dead Zone U Turn may be next should some Magic show up.

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Push/Pull is here

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Dead Zone and Push/Pull games. NAZ will not drop and will not pop. Going with the Pizza option. Trading is dead.

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Count the 100 point plus moves and you will see 14-15 and that is about the average prior to a break out. Will most likely show up in the O/N and the direction will most likely be UP. Go into Friday and Monday rocking. Unless, Good news is good news and bad news or bad news is bad news or good news. Just need to figure out which spin in used when the market goes up and should go lower. Just go Long with a stop.

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Mid range and just can't believe that O/N will push it up. We may see a drop out of this range. Just can't understand what would make it climb big in O/N, games may be over until Friday pop Play.

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KL's are like an eclectic dog collar that shocks the Dog (NAZ) back in the yard. Good Dog and Go Fed.

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Just noticed that we had 2 outside day reversals, strange and sign of aimless PA.

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11/14 Update, The Dog has left the yard.

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Moving lower in O/N

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100 more lower since chart above, whaaat?

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11/15 Update, Like I have been saying, The O/N is THE BOSS. Notice the prior lift up (when did it happen) and now the Drop (When). In the Overnight low volume session. Today will be a key Friday. The Friday-Monday Long trade is what to expect with the U Turn, should that not happen 20,500 and below is the target.

Yesterday Open to Current

Dog Yard break Chart

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Heading to 20,500

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The Dog is running down the street and will have to get hit by a car.

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May see big drop below 20,500 or Magic U Turn.

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KL 512 is a Pop or Deep Drop.

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Target hit and Out for Balance, unless 1 way train continues this may retrace back up some.

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Dog still Running Loose

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Have a good weekend and BTD/FOMO, not.

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Update after 2 weeks.

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Closing Post and starting a new Post.

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With YE Forecast target, I would to see a change near year end with how the Overnight Price Action moves or changes direction. During 2020 (Covid Drop) we had 3 limit down sessions. Back then the limit down was 5% and now it is 7%. We had 1 major O/N drop since and the BTD/FOMO's U Turned that. I would expect to see the O/N weaken and change direction and without the O/N lifting the Mag 7, the entire market is at risk of dropping.

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12/1, NAZ stuck on Upper Target after 2nd hit.

MAZing

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