NQ Oversold near-term; Bearish Pattern Emerging
The Ellipse, or Lens, is either a consolidation pattern or topping formation. Gap we saw Thursday 29 Apr likely an Exhaustion gap.
Higher prices seem unlikely given weakness overall but MFI oversold, RSI resting at support level; a brief bounce seems likely.
Longer-term, expect correction to support at former price resistance.
Not investing advice; trade at your own risk, GLTA!!
Higher prices seem unlikely given weakness overall but MFI oversold, RSI resting at support level; a brief bounce seems likely.
Longer-term, expect correction to support at former price resistance.
Not investing advice; trade at your own risk, GLTA!!
Trade active
Quite possible to see a Measured Move in NQ, IF it breaks UP from the lens, NQ could push to 15K; be VERY CAREFUL about shorting this! Can break EITHER WAY!!Took bank from shorts in AM and closed. Long VIX. Anything can happen now!! GLTA!
Note
Probly good idea to dump puts and vix calls in the open if it's bearish, the modest pullback may be over atm imoNote
Shaping up moderately bearish in AH; could give us a nice dump Tues, if it does, don't expect follow-thru on Weds, might pivot , bounce; short the rallies IMONote
Oversold now, might pivotNote
Weds bounce as expected, fade the gap; can it bounce higher? Short the rallies IMOTrade active
Shorted the gap, the lift and eod... heeeree weee goooooo!!!Trade closed: target reached
Looks like it will bounce, we got an 'h' pattern at the 200 DMA, going into cashNote
Looks like an ABC forming, we got an intraday ABC in the B wave also; a bull trap!Note
Strong resist at the ATH Friday, muted power hour, maybe more bullish next week? bigger drop later in May imo, trade with caution!Note
General Advice, worth all that you paid for it, gleaned from my various experiences over years:Do not try to anticipate price decline, this leads to dismay and losses. Wait for the break then short when it's dropping, you can trade daily or weekly puts in a selloff very profitably, buy atm strikes on the way down and add the next strike as it moves down. Selloffs move fast and can easily bring $5-10 contract appreciation in a few hours. Dailies selling for $1 turned into $10 last Tuesday!
Useless to buy expensive puts for $8, $10 or more trying to pick the top. Just enter when it's already moving, a sure thing and no-brainer.
See how painful it was to guess that 4200 was a double top, then it moved to 4230+ at new ATH?! Nuts! Might see higher still IMO.
Took me a long time to figure out this simple strategy;
"Do what the market is doing; buy calls when the prices rise, and puts when they decline.
Don't try to guess when it will pivot, just ride the wave and take what it gives you."
Watch the Elliot waves in daily price, when you got 3 legs down, selling is usually just about done. Be really, really careful about buying calls in a downtrend! Sometimes you get a deep fourth leg down... look for a higher low to enter long after pivot confirms.
It's price surfing, no guessing involved!
Trade active
Shorted EOD 5/13 on reaction rally; looks like a wave 2 or BNote
Looking for third leg down to ~12700
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