Weekly Chart Providing Clarity
Updated
Presently, the weekly chart of NQ1! is providing me with the most clarity. Simply put, we are in a 7-week stair-step pattern, meaning each weekly candle has a higher low compared to the previous week. Heading into next week the key level for me is 12,243 — if this level breaks we will officially be pulling back on the weekly chart in search of a likely higher low compared to 10,751.
Zooming into the 4hr chart we can observe the volume point of control, measured from Dec 28/22 or the start of the weekly impulse, has shifted above price following a firm rejection of the 12,818 level. Keeping the weekly stair-step pattern in mind, the current price range is starting to resemble a distribution structure that could lead to a weekly retrace and a break of the weekly stair-step pattern. If this scenario does play out, the bulls will ideally want to hold the first value area, which lines up with a 38% retrace as well as the weekly EMA26. If the first value area holds then a weekly bull flag and higher prices in the first or second quarter are certainly possible.
To negate this possible distribution structure and keep the weekly stair-step going the bulls will need to regain the point of control and break the FOMC high. It's possible to stay within this distribution range for another week, but personally, I won't be surprised if a break occurs sooner than later.
The bears would love to see this weekly stair-step lead to a deeper retrace that tests the second value area as this would diminish the potential for quick continuation on the weekly time frame.
A weekly pullback should not surprise anyone at this point, but we will take it one day at a time and stay open to the possibility the bulls can keep the weekly stair-step pattern intact.
Zooming into the 4hr chart we can observe the volume point of control, measured from Dec 28/22 or the start of the weekly impulse, has shifted above price following a firm rejection of the 12,818 level. Keeping the weekly stair-step pattern in mind, the current price range is starting to resemble a distribution structure that could lead to a weekly retrace and a break of the weekly stair-step pattern. If this scenario does play out, the bulls will ideally want to hold the first value area, which lines up with a 38% retrace as well as the weekly EMA26. If the first value area holds then a weekly bull flag and higher prices in the first or second quarter are certainly possible.
To negate this possible distribution structure and keep the weekly stair-step going the bulls will need to regain the point of control and break the FOMC high. It's possible to stay within this distribution range for another week, but personally, I won't be surprised if a break occurs sooner than later.
The bears would love to see this weekly stair-step lead to a deeper retrace that tests the second value area as this would diminish the potential for quick continuation on the weekly time frame.
A weekly pullback should not surprise anyone at this point, but we will take it one day at a time and stay open to the possibility the bulls can keep the weekly stair-step pattern intact.
Note
Since I posted this, NQ has pulled back to the first value area as hypothesized, and is now up over 20% from said value area. If I can get some more followers I will post more like this.
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