NQ Range (08-01-24)

Updated

The U-Turn call did play out. NAZ is moving to yellow arrow target and may play in white arrow range for much of August. Will update as we go. BTD/FOMO, Go Fed Forever. O/N is the BOSS (still).

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8/1 Reg Session play, Go back to previous Post and the 7/30 update will help with how the pre and Fed Day set up was made. The 7/30 Action (Drop) and Push/Pull Price Action set up the 7/31 Bigger Reaction (Pop) and the P/P was the SIGNAL. It is easier to trade 2 way PA, we will or should see the 2 way return soon and retest the U Turn Zone. The Overnight Prop Job on 7/31 is normal, but the No Reaction at Fed Release in Reg Session is not normal. The markets did not even move at release, this is very odd and usually leads to some type of counter move. This would be counter to the O/N lift (that was after the previous drop). Review PA from 7/1 to 7/11 as a reminder. Long from here but watch the moves up and when they happen.

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Careful today, Asia Nikkei is lower 2.5% and major EU indexes Dax/CAC are -1% plus. The previous O/N lift and no reaction to Fed Decision may have been drop offset to a counter move that these markets are now developing. The 7/30 Reg Session drop to only get propped back in O/N is a signal of some sort, this one sticks?? Watch Open Drive PA today and look for Push/Pull to show up.

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If you look back a few months, the Spike of 7/31 sticks out like a "Turd in a Punchbowl" , you may not want to drink that one. U Turn and all, just saying that this one is an odd one.

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NAZ feels weak and not much O/N prop strength. Dash white line is O/N high of yesterday, look for retest of and stay Long above and Short below. The Below Line will have to get rejected under the dash. 19,720 is upper zone to watch for stall out.

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Should stay above Dash most of day and if not, look for reaction.

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At target for retest.

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Turd retest? Watch the rotation around 393.

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Push/Pull will need to pick up and drop should follow. No P/P and this will go back up. Watch 393 rejection or pass.

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This is the Air Pocket drop that I mentioned yesterday, like clockwork. Go Fed.

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Take away the O/N pop prior to yesterday reg session and the NAZ is nowhere to lower. Been going on for YEARS. O/N is the BOSS.

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If you are Long do not worry, it will be back up in O/N or final 5m of the Close, LOL.

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Casino Royale is the game. The best managers have no idea what is going on these days. MAG 7 will be MAG 2 and the NAZ will still be climbing. Just play the O/N Long and be flat during Reg Session. The Turd I spotted is heading back to the Punchbowl.

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NAZ may try for outside reversal # 2, GO Fed and O/N team.

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All hell will break loose under 725

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So no net loss due to Prop Rig from yesterday O/N lift. The O/N PA tonight will be key and if a lift, I will be shocked and baffled. This would not at all surprise me with the Friday-Monday play next up.

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Dash KL was the turning point and the Odd Feeling pre open did stay true. NAZ back in mid range. Other world indexes mentioned did provide a valid signal.

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8/2, Update, Below is range for Friday, watch the Friday-Monday set up and should the Long not go today or Monday that would be rare and a major signal of change. The 30M chart is simple to follow and indicators are slow and reliable. White arrow zones are up and yellows are down, until the price/MA cross over. No O/N prop usually leads to lower reg session with Friday's being the wildcard. BTD/FOMO & Go Fed.

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Yesterday, 6/20 and 7/11 had high volume and all 3 did drop or was selling PA. Smart Money may be unloading some and the push/pull will be key.

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NFP in 30m, O/N last chance to redirect to the Long side. You know there will be a retest back up or complete U Turn away from Danger Zone. If not, way way lower we go.

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Staying under 725

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Back in the channel and under 590 is key here.

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One thing to note is that failed U Turns will set up a deeper drop until the Break Through to above.

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Just watch 590-650 and reaction, no pass may drop to low and below.

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Since 11/2021 the NAZ is up 8.5%, not real great. Should NAZ not drop and below that high (11/21) we could easily see another test of ATH.

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NAZ still in drop mode.

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SPX Price Action Zones

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8/4 O/N, The overnight has dropped 2.5% and limit down circuit breaker is 5%. The 5% limit down has not happened since 2020 (Covid) and we are due (at some point). The drop tonight is one one the biggest that we have seen in the past 2.5 years. Need to see how the Reg Session responds.

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8/5 Update, I joke about the Fed, The O/N BOSS, Rigging, etc. but the fact is that the market has become a joke and I just have not been taking it seriously for the past 2 years or so. The O/N limit down (finally) we come close. The Blue line is 2024 YTD Open level and when did the NAZ drop? It gaps open lower and keeps going. Look at all Mag 7, they gapped open lower. The joke is that the markets move (or try to move) when you can't trade them. Today, you need to be more of a trader or expert of games and not technical indicator and such. BTD/FOMO Forever and Go FED, The O/N is the BOSS, King and Supreme Leader.

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NAZ is 4.3% up YTD, look for NAZ to hold above the Blue line or retest prior to next bigger move. Not sure this is a spike or V move. Joke #2, NAZ has moves that look like "a Turd in a Punchbowl", VIX is at 40. The 3rd joke is that the VIX basically jumped from 12 to 40 in just a few sessions. Go Fed! (4th joke).

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Covid 2020 drop had 2-3 limit down O/N sessions, FYI. The 30 day drop had record (back to even) lift in 3 months. The Gov"t bailing/backing of trillions had much to do with and in 2008 we had QE. It will be interesting to see what lifts this or any drop back up since the National Debt is at record highs. This could be just a massive Long Trap set up with no bail or or fake fix. Question still in focus, why are most of price action and major move in or around off reg sessions? Back to game trading and not fundamental or technical, knowing your trading time zone is more important than direction (Long/Short).

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This chart shows a -6.3% NAZ drop in O/N, the 5% limit down rule should of stopped the drop at 5%. Not sure is it did or if the limit is now higher or maybe no limit. Scary stuff, Joke #5.

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Chart of VIX, Joke #6. All the jokes are part of the Game of Joke Market. The problem is the flow use to be 2 way and fun to trade and now it is 1 way, strange moves, strange times or sessions and dead reg sessions. We need to see things get back to normal or smart money will move more money to private equity and things will get worse in the public equity markets.

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CME limit down is 7% now, that is how the 6.3% drop got passed 5%. Notice how the max push to limit gets tested. All games, know the players.

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2021 High to current return is now 2-3%, should that become flat we move see further selling or exit trades.

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The 1 HR chart will show the few O/N drop moves and how large. The moves prior to this channel were the opposite (O/N Lift) but smaller. The tiny offseason lift is part of "Air Pocket" Long Trap set up and what to look for when you see no Push/Pull and all BTD/FOMO activity in the Summer low volume months.

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Back to -6.3%, limit down or -7% should be next

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NAZ had double bottom in O/N and now reg session Longs will play that until stall out. Bitcoin down 16%, Dollar is lower only up is VIX and 10YN (Yield down). Not looking Bullish on This Monday, WHAAAT.

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If this keeps up central banks will fix it. Bail next as Mag 7 need to be stabilized or all hell will break loose.

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Rejected at MA, needs to get above or lower we go. Should stay in the range until next O/N. The O/N is the BOSS.

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This looks like an Air Pocket and may drop, If not will rally to the Moon. That is how it goes here at Casino Royale.

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Leaking out, may pick up sloooow speed. Usual Trick.

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MAG 7 largest 1 day drop on record, All in the Overnight. This is why the O/N is the Boss. Not to mention the Gap Down Open. Impossible to trade this and that is how they want it. Wait until the Reg Session sells this off, that will be the statement and until then this will just drift up/down.

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Rotating around AP

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735 is lower support and retest.

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Below 18,100 is air pocket drop, likely final hour.

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Go Fed. BTD.

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SPX Update

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NAZ under the Air Pocket. Scary to know that the new Limit Down is now 7% for Futures Trading. Not is almost a secret and that can easily be the new range. Great play, drop it 6-7% in O/N and then pump it back up in Reg Session. This would just confuse everyone even more and may be the new PA. Whipsaw Bonanza.

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8/6 Update, NAZ tried the Gap Fill and then fell back under 18,100-200 or Air Pocket. Use yellow arrow for next big break out. Stay will normal PA Flow, Long O/N, Short Open Range (O/R), Long Dead Zone (D/Z) and Random the Close (Final HR). Drop offsets will continue and may be set ups for further Long exits and these battles will happen at/near KL's (key levels), the PA normal flow will help with direction through out the day.

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The MA will change from Red to White, watch NAZ rotate around and then take off. Just do not know which direction.

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NAZ trying for upper target, typical and may actually work should it get to O/N, if so may see a low volume rocket in O/N or Long Trap if stall out.

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Careful with any Long, NAZ just simply retseted O/N High and will drop at no pass. What they will try is to go sideways until the O/N or Close so they can lift it in O/N. No sideways or decent drop prior will be bearish for O/N. This is about the games and not the price action.

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Needs to pick ramming speed or back up.

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O/N DB, Rig may be next. UP

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Watch 18,040 DB

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8/7 Update, The NAZ is setting up the typical U Turn Bounce or trying. This will start in the O/N and then after the O/R initial typical drop test or in the Dead Zone. The NAZ has multiple personalities and is generally insane. It helps if you just accept that and follow the PA rhythm (that is predictable).

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Channel update, The upper channel pop was the "Turd" mentioned a few days go and now we have the lower "Turd" move to balance out. Next move out of this channel will move and not be a "Turd".

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18,300 is KL to watch. The NDX chart is not NQ, you will see gap up for NDX at Open today (should this hold) and this may spark the BTD/FOMO's

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Gap Fill Complete, now What?

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Again, the Reg Session just can't hold the O/N Pump. Watch KL 18,040 to KL 18,300 for break out. Gap did fill and a drop is open should the NAZ stall out.

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They just keep going with O/N Pump to Reg Session Dump.

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NAZ at mid channel or half Turd.

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8/8 Update, So the thing to look at is how the NAZ is in Mid Range of 17,300 - 18,500 and this is saying that there is no conviction. The O/N has not propped (the NAZ needs it Props). This is all looking like next direction is lower and back to lows for a retest. NAZ back under Red MA (white arrow).

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Some Push/Pull is percolating, like a Volcano. BTD/FOMO, Go Fed. Today will move NAZ into range for this Friday-Monday Long Play or next Leg lower. Today is more important than Friday.

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Just keep in mind who the BOSS is as we approach the Reg Session. Stay with typical PA Flow until it stops working, that will be the signal we are looking for. Looking for a half move head fake (long or short). This one will be violent and wicked.

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NAZ looking like it wants to go up, just watch the head fake. The move will come out of this range. May be 1 way runner or nasty head fake. O/R is key today.

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Reg Session KL's, just watch the O/N H/M/L and play the counter if it holds.

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O/N Pump/Dump so far.

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Reg Session needs to produce some gains or break above O/N High.

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OK, prior 30M candle is bearish if NAZ gets rejected here.

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18,498 is drop zone.

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Looking like drop time under 498. If so back to 156.

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Long Trap if gets under O/N High.

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FYI, I am Flat today. Feel a big move on the way or curveball failed auction then drop. Something is cooking up. Go Fed.

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NAZ is just playing in a range. Typical moves at usual spots. Not buying this lift, may see typical O/N lift into Friday-Monday lift and if not, that will be a strong curveball.

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18380 should be quick drop test under 520.

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Drop test complete and now O/N rig to the moon time. Typical and predictable, nothing has changed BTD/FOMO is back Go Fed.

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725 and 640 are resistance hurdles and no pass in O/N is No Pass in Reg Session. Wednesday had an orderly decline that was an easy retrace for Thursday, Friday will not be so easy moving up. I am usually 1 -2 days early on these opposite direction moves but they usually do produce. 237-040 is drop test zone.

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8/9 Update, Out today. 18725 is Long above and Short below. 4HR will show lower Box Range and recent U-Turn attempt (2nd white arrow). Any stall will drop back to lower Box. Friday-Monday Long Only may play out as there is Zero Push/Pull. Still feel a curve ball is in the works on the Long side.

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We have a box and a downward channel, NAZ will bust up and out or retest back in mid range. The mid range test may produce a pop back up. The recent few quick drop tests have come up and this is what to watch/expect. The NAZ bounce back up off recent low has given a 2nd chance to sell higher, the buyers bought lower and are good for now. Any drop back lower will shake out weak longs. No big drop, we will see quick drop tests until one does not pop back up and then the fun will start.

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380 Hit, watch the O/R today.

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Watch the Hook Short under 590-550

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No Hook just sideways. I am out and have a great weekend. May see typical Friday Dead Zone lift into the Close for weekend to Monday lift. If not, this may be older Longs selling to new weaker Longs and planning the exit, you never know what a slow market is up to.

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8/12 Update, Every Mag 7, index, bitcoin except VIX looks like the chart below. Typical drop and slow retrace back, get ready for next play. The ATH to 2024 Open Price is range to watch, any stall on this weak snail lift (that will only move up in pre market or O/N) is what to look for. Otherwise, BTD/FOMO. Go Fed, I do not have a problem with the Fed, I have a problem with the FOMO's that put too much weight on FED and Fed comments, decision, spin, etc. Every time the NAZ drops, a counter spin about the Fed will slooowly move it back up. The move back up takes days and weeks and the usual move back lower (of similar distance) takes minutes or hours.

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Friday or Thursday I mentioned the 640-725 hurdle and that NAZ would need to pass. Here we are again and the Friday Reg Session could not do it, so try again in the fake easy O/N. That is what to expect and any strong rejection will be a drop test. It is Monday so the trend is usually up 80-90% of time, just keep that in mind id the NAZ does break through.

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NAZ is in the 725 rejection move and look Short under 725.

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Once again, no strength in the Reg Session. Look for dop in O/N should it not lift.

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8/13 Update, All O/N with the lift and need to see some lifting in the larger volume Reg Session. The off session upward moves have and do stabilize the NAZ. FYI, usually when too much is "off session" it does not stick and drops in hours/minutes. BTD and hold your nose with a trailing stop or short all the way up and add. This is going nowhere.

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For the Long above 725, you did well. Anyway, the move looks a bit Turdish as it outside the channel. O/N high is 819 and watch that retest PA. For Long play, next target up is Fib 50% (white arrow).

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Hit and here we GO.

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Jut watch the 840 level and reaction.

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Air Pocket signal, look for a drop on the way.

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8/14 Update, Looking for pre Open move and sideways to lower in Reg Session.

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Run from 17,300 is mostly O/N or low volume off session PA/Prop.

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Some Push/Pull and NO O/N prop, that is not good for the NAZ. NAZ need to have the O/N Pump, may see a Dump here at Open.

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This is the most boring price action that I have seen in years. 1 way train rides and no 2 way. Just not possible unless you rig it.

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Short at 19,125 with 100 point stop.

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Add on stall lift

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Stop at 19125

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NAZ trying short shake out.

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Going Flat in DZ lift. 18,935

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Joke

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040-840 is range to watch

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093 is next rejection test.

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Look to short at 093 or near hit and NAZ stay under, should drop later today.

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Go Fed, Dot Plot, FOMO and all O/N lifting is not real.

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Shorting again at 19,075

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50 point stop and Done for day. May give back 50.

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Stop at break even and 2nd on short at 19,115

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Looking for a back breaker of the NAZ. Will crash or I break even. The drop is on the way.

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Great 2 way day and good to see. Should NAZ survive this it will move higher, if not should drop big.

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3rd Short on at 19150, stop at Break Even.

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19,175 adding 4th and stop is off.

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Still 4 short and looking like a Long Trapper. Dot Plot, where is the Beef?

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Garbage once again in the Reg Session. This is likely or should happen. With O/N on deck we may see lift as usual and I will close out the Shorts.

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Stops above 19,300 and still Short.

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Updated Chart

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19,195 is KL, long above and short below. Long move may stall and drop. Staying with Short and stop at 19,325. Out most of day, good luck.

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Back with Short to 150, Failed Auction Zone. Looks like O/N typical Pump/Dump. Again, all O/N lift.

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459 is Fib Level for some selling, Under/No Pass

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NAZ lifting on Neg Ticks, OK?

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Adding to Short, upside down day, drop should follow.

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Recent drop has retested the drop zone and next move is most likely lower. Just goes to show how accurate the Trading Times Zones PA is. O/N Up, Dead Zone Up. The Reg Session will need to hold this or lower we go. Will hold Shorts for wide turn, should see some drop tests at this time. NAZ at 19,500 now.

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Tricky one with the Friday-Monday pop play on deck. NAZ could pop another 500 points or more (should that play out). Not sure that will happen without a prior drop test. Too Vertical but possible.

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Looks like an Air Pocket and remember or look back the last time I mentioned one. Should or they usually will drop. This one may go higher since Friday-Monday Rig Long is due next.

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Here we go or no go.

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Gap should get retested in days.

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Watch 10YN, yields jumping. Typical 1 way train, next ride is lower. Need to see if Friday-Monday Long Rig plays out.

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2 days down and 8 days up, no gain just back to drop zone. Most gains in O/N and not Reg Session. Smells fishy. Go Fed, BTD and FOMO special.

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Nothing doing and they will stretch it to the max and we may see a huge Friday-Monday Long play set up. Still hanging Short and giving back points from prior trade and then some. Just not buying it and do this once every 3-4 months. Feels great for some strange reason.

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8/16 Update, It is Friday and that will usually lead into a Friday to Monday Close Long Play. If It does not, Short would be the play and if it does, Tuesday may drop some. Go Long or add to your Short as it lifts or stay out. Naz is at upper Channel and mid is 19,300 and lower 19,000. Trading Time Zones are watch to use, Long O/N, Short O/R, Long DZ and the Close is Random. Yesterday was Vertical and easy run to prior high with half PA in O/N and half Reg Session. The prior 2 way day was follow by the typical 1 way Train Ride. Feels Long today, still holding Short for drop test and then possible significant Drop Sucker Punch from somewhere.

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For those that have been following me for you have seen the failed auctions play out. When the NAZ dropped (9 days ago) it had all selling and no buying (in zones) FA's. These will usually get retested/cleaned out and then reverse. The white arrow is the FA Zone, lets see what happen from here.

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O/N not holding and 19,400 is KL. Long above and Short below. Fib Level 459 may hold or hold it down under level with 1 way train looking south, if not DZ Long above 400-459 range.

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FYI, just looking at calendar and we have a Holiday week next week. This will usually be to the LONG side with low volume, just keep that in mind. If a low vol Pump does not happen (usually in O/N) , we may see a major drop in a reg session. Just watch the stall outs from now until then.

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At 19470 I am back to my Wide Turn comment (21 hours ago), no blood here and remain calm if you are Short. Go Fed, BTD, FOMO

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IDS Set Up, Yesterday was Long and Price was above the White MA. Today Price is under Blue and looking Short. Watch the Blue MA and price. The system is good but hard to follow because it is so easy. Example, my Short early yesterday.

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Once again the NAZ struggles in the Reg Session, look for Push/Pull and get/stay short.

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Have a great weekend and BTD/FOMO may be creating the WHIPSAW.

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8/22, Update form last post. Closed some shorts but still on looking to add. 20,040 is KL to watch today, I am out until next week. Need to see how Reg Session moves today and in in Friday's Reg Session.

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8/23 Update, KL 20,040 did reject for a decent drop and look for sideways to lower into the weekend. Need to watch for the typical Friday - Monday Long set up play.

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8/26 Update, Yellow is range to watch.

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O/N Pump/Dump, not good for a Monday.

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No significant drop and white arrow is typical next move. Should that not happen, look Short. Remember, low volume Long Weekend may add some whipsaw (usually ending higher, if that does not happen, stay Short)

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NAZ is basically stuck under/near low of Thursday and Friday. No lift, look for 19,400-200 retest and then Long into the extended weekend. Snail type volume will thin out if Drop should hold. Friday will be narrow as if markets are closed. Need to see what Tuesday - Thursday will bring.

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400k volume day, is that even worth recording? Where is any volume? This has been for months.

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8/27 Update, Mid Yellow arrow, no upper white. may go to lower yellow should NAZ No Strength show up. Look for Push/Pull.

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Another Low Volume slow mover. Trading may be now seasonal or becoming a thing of the past. BTD/FOMO to the Moon.

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8/28 Update, So here is the plan. Just wait until after Hours or late day to Go Long with Nvidia reporting. 1st move will be up in O/N low volume and scalp that or hold until next morning. NAZ is still in Mid range of Yellow Arrow and may try for upper channel.

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Still in Mid and playing out O/N Pump/Dump. Look Long on any Hold.

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Lower Arrow, BTD FOMO for the Holiday Weekend may be the play here since it is only Wednesday.

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8/29 Update, Just read any of my previous post's and my 8/28 update. Long in the O/N and into the Low-No Volume Holiday weekend. NAZ got to near lower KL and back up to Mid. Rig on in the off Reg Session time periods.

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Long target should the Open Range not Drop (O/N Pump/Dump) and Dead Zone of Reg Session lift it. You will see more lift in Thursday O/N, Friday, Monday (Futures only) and Monday O/N into Tuesday. Why not, been play more a few years. Anyway, NAZ will need to break below lower KL (19,000-19,050) in order to see/have decent drop.

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NAZ back to Mid Range and O/N redirect is effective. Sideways to Up is most likely.
BTD/FOMO into then Holiday weekend is highly probable and if not, SHORT it.

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Too funny, now you can see the O/N lift or Drop offset, Look long should this how.

Trade closed manually

8/30 Update, O/N Pump/Dump and drop offset. I will close this out. Final day of month and quarter. May see huge pop by Tuesday or huge drop (gap). Flat and not in today.

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Typical Holiday pop job.

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YTD Range is about 3,000 point sand NAZ is just above mid level. Look for retest of lower half or drop below ML of range as next move. Need to see how the Tuesday play of Rig Prop plays out, if no Rig POP (due to Holiday) look strong Short.

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9/3 Long above 671 and Short at rejection, NAZ will try hard to get above 671 during Monday O/N or pre open to Tuesday.

MAZing

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