Short

More Rough Ride Ahead?

Updated

This retracement has look and feel of a B wave, choppy and hesitant. Got a H&S in the 15 minute chart on 11/11.

Expect another leg lower soon IMO. Should push down to test support at the old ATH IMO. RSI went oversold, bounced, fades.

Likely to get a big bounce (arrow) after the C leg, retest ATH in December. 19 Nov OpeX likely to be pretty choppy IMO.

Sold off -300 pips and has bounced back a bit more than 200 of that in the AM lift. Now in descending stair-step pattern.

Measured move would end around 15815, give or take a bit. Selling could come at anytime, so unpredictable.

Wouldn't trade dailies on this as it might take a week to come off, could be tomorrow, who knows?!
I see lower lows and lower highs in daily charts on SPX, DJI. NQ looks like a sawblade fgs.

Opening position in ten QQQ 24 Nov 392Pp spread short the 15 Nov 382, net debit $4.12.
DYODD, GLTA!

Trade active

Closed on early weakness look for re-entry

Trade active

Back in Nov 391P on the lift, 20 $5 spreads

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Added ten spreads short Monday 386 dailies

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Rolled the monday short legs down to weds 381s, added ten spreads, now in 40 $10 bear spreads

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Added ten more for 50 spreads, enough damage done already fgs

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Covered the short legs for .50c a nickel gained, added ten 391 nov puts, holding 60 outright

Trade closed: stop reached

Forced out

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Goldarn Meltup again FFS, greed is good again

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Starts to look like this idea might pan out after all. Clipped a few pips on the AM sell Monday.

They might buy this little dip; or the real selling could start soon. Will soon see, watching it.

Trade active

a double top. shorted in 26 nov qqq 398p, 15 bear spreads

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Closed on early weakness, watch, wait

Trade active

Well this GDMD idea turned out to be spot on after all, just we never got a secondary selloff, was more like a flat and then bully double top.

So unpredictable! NOT going full bore short here, copy this post in case you missed it:

Follow-up, still do not feel that going full bore short is a good idea... another damned parabolic can come in here anytime, NQ has not fully double topped, need to see QQQ go over $400, ES might get push to another ATH.

IF you follow Peter Eliades, very useful insights, he projected top on 5 nov and now claims this will prove to be the ultimate ATH. So far, it holds, check out his app:
stockmarketcycles.com/servic...

He called the bottom in 1974 and been rolling ever since. He called the top on 3 Sep a month before, and says we have now reached the Top of the Century.

We will see...

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Oops, the public link, free charts and analysis: youtube.com/c/stockmarketcycles

Trade active

Took a small bear spread in the 29 Nov 398p short Fridays' 393ps, ten spreads net debit 3.70

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Rolled short legs AH to Monday 390p, for Even

Trade closed manually

Added on the lift and closed on the drop. Decent day!

Trade active

Flipped calls on the bounce. Frustrating trades to say the least, opens so damned bullish and press to ATH then Wham! I did okay but you get real tired of watching puts melt ffs... IMO some fierce selling coming soon, triple witching Friday might not be so bully?!

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Just watching back in cash. so damned fluctuant, sold $2, bounced $1, now will they bull it back to ATH?

Or we gonna see a flashcrash?! Pure guesswork, but starts to look pretty dicey up here...

Trade active

Shorting the rally:
QQQ Diagonal
+10 Nov21/Nov-29-21 395/400 Put Diagonal
-10 Nov21 $395 Puts
+10 Nov-29-21 $400 Puts

@3.80 net debit

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Added 5 spreads @ 3.72

Trade active

Added ten more on the lift back at HOTD, nuts!

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Opened 5 spreads in 401p, rolled teh nov 395s to Monday 394p

Trade closed manually

Closed all for a push. Gone from flashcrash to gdmd bullish ffs. Whipsawing at top. You know this is the top but how it hangs here is amazing, just kills shorts.

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Probably a short entry EOD. Just gonna get whipped again IMO, short-covering soon

Trade active

Flipped some calls at 2pm, margin call liquidations

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Opened bear put spread in 3 Dec 401p short friday's 396p, ten spreads

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Entered 401 strikes just OTM at 401.05; net debit 4.43;

got .81c for the short legs, lotta money with a day left

Trade active

Added 5 spreads. More EOD if it looks good IMO

Trade active

Rolled 15 short 396p to 11/24 392 for Even

Trade active

Added 5 spreads, rolled the 392p to 26 nov 390p for 0.01cr (even)

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Added 5 more at HOTD revisited EOD. In 25 now.

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Picked up ten 402p on the EOD rush

Trade active

Added ten 402p and short the friday 397p in a $5 spread, 20, see if they expire

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Rolled the 397s out, too close IMO, got .17c credit for the 24 Nov 394p

Trade closed manually

Rolled up and then closed out for a wee drawdown. The short legs kept my end up. Spent Friday flipping strikes on puts and calls.

The euphoric bullishness of NQ in face of weaker RTY and DJI is characteristic of a blowoff bubble about to burst IMO

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BTW, I cannot believe evry time I look at QQQ it says $405 OMG, how?! LOL

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Re-visiting this post, click the progress arrow button, amazingly in spite of all the bearishness, this damned index is still really high! There is a LOT OF ROOM to downside for a real crashover IMO; BUT should consider past week may be just a grindy sideways correction leading to a move higher!

Trading this index hurts, lol. Evrytime you think it's going long, pivot reverse kills ur longs, then you say, okay well, go short! And lose both ways fgs. GLTA!

DaddySawbucks

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Correction: Work in Progress

by DaddySawbucks

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