NQ: What's going on and what I see with my eyes...
Tech rich names have hard time getting up there and this has been happening since beginning of Dec 2021. Latelty it has been fading towards the close and go Green to Red. Unable to hold gains are troublesome and investors/traders don't like this pattern and they exit the market till things improve. Everyone is looking for that moment me included. Did some analysis and wanted to share my 2c.
Listen I am NOT a certified anything so please take this as grain of salt and do your own research.
I am "Comparing" Nasdaq futures with SKEW on a daily t/f and most of what I see are evry evident to me and it should be to my viewers too.
1. NQ is trying to bounce off fib level. Will it do it?
2. SKEW was lowest (almost) during mkt crash in Mar 2020. Can this revisit those low numbers once again?
Bullish case:
SKEW need to bounce off this TL and NQ too off this fib. We're now in the earning season and NFLX last night did not help the tech sector. But I don't look at NFLX as the key gauge of where this tech is headed. What will other tech names say post er, how will they plan on fighting against increading yield and USD going fwd will gives us major clues. Not enough firepower to bring this tech heavy sector any more but can get fueled by guidance in upcoming earning. Some tech names have underperformed and under tons of scrutny (ex: BABA). I see SKEW and NQ both at some kind of supposrt system annd further downside is limited.
Bearish case:
If SKEW breaks this TL then it will revisit the lows of Mar 2020. Those times were catastrophic but then mkt bounced hard. Without getting political here, situation now is more dire despite bulk of population got "FREE" money. If the next cycle of tech er (next 14 days) continue to report unfavorable numbers, this will slide further down pretty quickly and SKEW will make new lows.
USD has been stronger compared to other currencies as most US banks are now flooded with cash as more and more traders are exiting the mkt. Mkt is now almost baked-in the face that there will be 4 int rate hikes. Building process takes time and it should be done sooner than later. Banks are NOT a safe heaven and it will be realized and mkt will then entertain new traders back imho.
Events to eye on:
Olympics
Geo-political (Ex: Russia, US)
Housing (Spring and summer)
Travel restrictions (Spring and summer)
Commercial REIT (Corp should cut their expenses)
And on and on. Hope this brings some light to things that are confusing and scary.
Listen I am NOT a certified anything so please take this as grain of salt and do your own research.
I am "Comparing" Nasdaq futures with SKEW on a daily t/f and most of what I see are evry evident to me and it should be to my viewers too.
1. NQ is trying to bounce off fib level. Will it do it?
2. SKEW was lowest (almost) during mkt crash in Mar 2020. Can this revisit those low numbers once again?
Bullish case:
SKEW need to bounce off this TL and NQ too off this fib. We're now in the earning season and NFLX last night did not help the tech sector. But I don't look at NFLX as the key gauge of where this tech is headed. What will other tech names say post er, how will they plan on fighting against increading yield and USD going fwd will gives us major clues. Not enough firepower to bring this tech heavy sector any more but can get fueled by guidance in upcoming earning. Some tech names have underperformed and under tons of scrutny (ex: BABA). I see SKEW and NQ both at some kind of supposrt system annd further downside is limited.
Bearish case:
If SKEW breaks this TL then it will revisit the lows of Mar 2020. Those times were catastrophic but then mkt bounced hard. Without getting political here, situation now is more dire despite bulk of population got "FREE" money. If the next cycle of tech er (next 14 days) continue to report unfavorable numbers, this will slide further down pretty quickly and SKEW will make new lows.
USD has been stronger compared to other currencies as most US banks are now flooded with cash as more and more traders are exiting the mkt. Mkt is now almost baked-in the face that there will be 4 int rate hikes. Building process takes time and it should be done sooner than later. Banks are NOT a safe heaven and it will be realized and mkt will then entertain new traders back imho.
Events to eye on:
Olympics
Geo-political (Ex: Russia, US)
Housing (Spring and summer)
Travel restrictions (Spring and summer)
Commercial REIT (Corp should cut their expenses)
And on and on. Hope this brings some light to things that are confusing and scary.
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