NQ Short (02-18-25)
NAZ took road to upper Target of my (2/10/25) Post. I am looking Short and may be early since we have a Holiday (O/N) session which usually leads to low volume Long only air balloon rides. Chart for this week: Shaded Zone (SZ) is Gap Fill (December contract change) with yellow dash as mid level. NAZ will need to get above SZ, ML SZ and mid level of long term channel (grey dash). TLX's at 22,300-50 and below at 22,037 (may be range for break out). White dash arrow is Long target by month end and Yellow dash arrow is Short target by month end. NAZ did get above the sideways range that started in early November, 2024. The prior 4 times this has happened, the NAZ fell in and dropped nearly 1,000 points each time. Three of these drops moved the distance in a few hours to a few days. Long play is fine this week, should we see Push/Pull jerky sketchy price action, look Short. Prior 3-4 month narrow sideways PA has been setting up a big move, not sure on direction but thinking Short.
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Monday markets closed, O/N hits ML of Range. I would not be surprised if 22,350-70 is hit by Tuesday Open. Any stall to or before that move will most likely drop back to TLX 22,037.
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2/18 Update, I like the White Dash arrow as range for this week. NAZ had U Turn (in O/N on a Sunday) on 2/9. Then snail lifted to the end of last week and is now in extended weekend lift mode and attempting 22,350-70 KL's. The two white arrows are off session rig plays, you need to watch these levels.
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4 HR, Here look at the 2 Orange TL's and range in between. Still see 20,695 as major retest level. Upper moves are easy, you can use these Posts for Long trades. The stalling out or Push/Pull price action should bring the Short calls into play. Looking at this chart, would you go long, short or flat? Flat = long (O/N only), Long is slow and reluctant and Short does not exist. I would look Short here for the Edge Trade Mega Move. Go Fed & Washington Street, the Holiday is over an lets see some action.
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ML of Range is playing hardball, here come the Riggers
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ML & TL rejected to lower range
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NAZ at KL and U Turn or bust, ML of long term channel. Yellow arrow zone.
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NAZ is still under long term channel ML but struggling to get lower (sideways after O/N rig to next O/N session). You can see the O/N drop offset since Friday. Question is why? Why the prop job?
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Sloppy weak PA, jerky but will not drop. Expect the O/N to rig it back up.
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Literally on cue like a trained monkey.
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2/19 Update, NAZ did get lifted higher in final 10 minutes of the close and most of the O/N. Working the lower half of U Turn Zone 22,160-22,360. Needs to breakout with some force or range range range. Chart below will show force by way of orders/volume or trades. The range bar chart will only move when there is activity. The two arrows will show Feb 2 and 3rd, O/N into reg session. White is O/N and Yellow is Reg. Notice the trade activity and compare it to most days after. You can also see how the O/N seems to have more activity than the reg session. Anyway, we are due for a day like 2/3 or 2/4 to show up to the downside. Release the Rooster, already.
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4 HR, riding ML Channel, should it break. Just saying that any Longs will most likely loose or give back their short gains. Look Short or wait for that trade, the Longs are dinner.
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Another O/N lift to support any drop offset, NAZ will need to break under the Range for decent move lower.
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160 and up is Rig Zone in DZ. Below will try TLX.Note
Update and mid day pump to O/N lift or not.
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At Close we do have an Air Pocket for the O/N. Just in time for the safe zone as the NAZ may have dropped some. Up in O/N, sell into Open and lift in the Dead Zone until break out.
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2/20 Update, The AP at close did help with the 100 point drop back to KL 22,160. Need to see breakout. Just watch head fakes near to Mid/Top/Bottom of this range.
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NAZ continues to rotate around ML (dash line). O/N did not rig up (yet), Open Range may go up 1st, stall then drop. Or, O/N lift prior to Open, Open drop out of range and no Dead Zone redirect (rescue). Needs to happen as we are coming up on Friday-Monday Long Rig (95% Long only).
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Yellow is drop and White is hold and into Friday-Monday Long play. Go Fed, BTD/FOMO at ATH.
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Is the market Open? Zero movement, very strange.Note
Here we go.
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Breakout under 160, run Forrest run.
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TLX test.
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Bubba Gump Hit.
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Under 120 is KL to watch.
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What to look for.
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Above chart, 4-5 days of prop moves gone in 30 minutes. Note
Yellow arrow, may see sideways and drop.
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NAZ goes sideways to up (160 resistance) to Close. Looking for O/N help into Friday-Monday Long play. NAZ dipped in the Box and back up off TLX. May try U Turn away from this major Danger Zone, all riggers on deck.
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2/21 Update, Interesting day playing out, think of the set up for this. You have a Thursday TLX Hit rotation through dead zone, then lift to O/N (usual). This is away from a Major Danger Zone and into a Friday-Monday Long Rig play. This could be a huge move higher should selling no resume (as usual). Lift will go to whites and drop to yellow. The upper 22,700 is not for today or Monday just a KL to watch. Looking for move back in range play today with narrow weak sideways to O/N for any attempt to lift into Monday and then the selling should resume.
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Bingo #1
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So we are ML Mid level of range and typically a NTZ No Trade Zone. Do dot expect much unless we see a Rocket Up.Note
ML rejected and no real force in either direction. Need to see if Dead Zone does it thing into F-M Long move.
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Back in yellow arrow range and waiting on U Turn back up or drop below.
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Bingo #2
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Bingo #3 is 21,400 or back up to Bingo#1 (in final hour or O/N from Friday to Monday).
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Pop back up some to Bingo#2. Stay Short otherwise.
Trade closed manually
Interest Close today. Many daily charts of various Mag7 look like they can fall off a cliff. Interesting to see if/how the O/N magicians will redirect for Monday Prop Job. NAZ needs the off session moves or Danger in the Danger Zone. Note
This week's Post caught mostly the yellow arrow, with hours lower vs days sideway or up slightly.Note
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.