Novavax, Inc.Long
NVAX Looking Bearish
Updated
This is a split screen of NVAX, both on the weekly time frame.
The chart on the right is the bollinger bands. Currently there's a squeeze and the mouth is just beginning to open. Price is under the white basis line, and if the mouth of the bands begins to open wider, it's likely price will get dragged down and ride the bottom yellow band.
The chart on the left is a line chart with oscillators. Price has been trading within a range since February of 2023. (Yellow parallel channel) It's been bouncing between the $6.35 and $9.50 level. If price breaks below the $6.35 level, it would then test $5.00 as support. (Orange dashed line)
Looking at both the rsi and stochastics, strength and momentum are falling, and are in bearish territory. So there's a chance price could break below the parallel channel.
Couple this with the opening of the bollinger bands, and NVAX looks very bearish.
The chart on the right is the bollinger bands. Currently there's a squeeze and the mouth is just beginning to open. Price is under the white basis line, and if the mouth of the bands begins to open wider, it's likely price will get dragged down and ride the bottom yellow band.
The chart on the left is a line chart with oscillators. Price has been trading within a range since February of 2023. (Yellow parallel channel) It's been bouncing between the $6.35 and $9.50 level. If price breaks below the $6.35 level, it would then test $5.00 as support. (Orange dashed line)
Looking at both the rsi and stochastics, strength and momentum are falling, and are in bearish territory. So there's a chance price could break below the parallel channel.
Couple this with the opening of the bollinger bands, and NVAX looks very bearish.
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NVAX closed the week of Oct 16,2023 at $6.43.The bollinger bands are still in the early stages of opening it's mouth, and the lower band appears to be opening wider than the top band.
For the price to move down really strong, we want both bands to open in the vertical position.
This is a weekly chart, so the band movements will be relatively slow.
In the line chart on the right, price is still within its parallel channel. It briefly dipped down to $6.00 on Thursday, but the $6.35 level has been proven to be strong support, and closed the week back into the parallel channel.
Weekly charts grind slowly, but NVAX still looks bearish.
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Week of Oct 23, 2023:NVAX closed the week at $6.35, which is the same price as when I first created this analysis on October 17.
Nothing changed on the WEEKLY CHART:
1) $6.35 is still strong support
2) the rsi and stoch rsi are still in bearish territory and pointing downwards
3) bollinger bands are opening up, and the price candles are riding the bottom
band
NVAX still looks bearish to me in the LARGE TIME FRAME.
- But looking at the DAILY CHART, the rsi and stoch rsi are starting to rise.
- Stoch rsi has just confirmed its cross above the 20 level and is pointing up, which is bullish.
- And the bollinger bands on the daily chart has price about to test its middle basis line. If price can break above this middle line, NVAX will see some fire works for a short period.
- According to the daily chart, in the SHORT TERM , NVAX may see a decent rise in price in the next few days to a week.
- The next resistant range would be between $7.00 - $7.70 ish.
That's potentially a 10-22% increase from today.
Note
NVAX closed at $4.21 today. Roughly 34% down from my last update on October 28, 2023.
In my original post I stated, if price breaks below $6.35, the next support level would be $5.00. (orange horizontal dashes)
Well it fell below $5, and now the next critical level of support is $3.95. (red horizontal line)
That red line was drawn in since my original post. This level is super critical, because it's in an area of all time lows. The all time low is $3.54, and if NVAX closes a weekly candle below this price, this could be very bad.
I refer to the area below all time lows as, "no man's land."
"No man's land" just means there's no previous support to keep it from free falling.
But there's also a bullish case in the charts.
NVAX is about to RETEST the critical red horizontal SUPPORT line at $3.95.
Will it see a bounce up or will it fall right through?
There were 2 previous tests of this level in 2019. (purple and green arrows)
The purple arrow shows a "V" shaped bounce up into the parallel channel.
The green arrow shows a sideways consolidation before bouncing up into the parallel channel.
And there's a third option, not shown, which is a break below the red support line. No man's land.
The RSI and Stoch RSI are showing over sold conditions. (orange circles)
When both the RSI and Stoch RSI eventually peak above their white horizontal lines, NVAX could see a nice increase in price. Maybe retesting between the $5.00 and $6.35 levels.
And if NVAX has the strength it could once again consolidate into the yellow horizontal channel, which has a range between $6 - $9.
But the reality is, this is a weekly Stochastic RSI, and could be in oversold territory for months. And while the Stoch RSI continues to linger under the white line, price could continue to fall.
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