Nvidia is a dead man walking.
NVDA is going to drop by 50% over the next few quarters, adjusted for how the overall market performs.
I'm not looking at support levels or head and shoulders patterns or anything like that. I see Ethereum mining is gone, and with it GPU mining is now done at a loss and only in shitcoins. I see miners mass selling the stock of GPUs they've been buying for the last 2 years. I see Nvidia delaying their new GPU product launch to unload their stock of old product before it becomes worthless (they have a year's worth to dispose of!). I see Nvidia trying to get out of their allocation contract with TSMC because they ordered far too much (highly expensive) 4nm capacity as part of the silicon shortage bullwhip. I see EVGA, Nvidia's preferred partner cutting ties with Nvidia and exiting GPU assembly immediately before a new product launch due to mistreatment from Nvidia. I see the tech enthusiasts everyone watches for reviews dumping on Nvidia for re-labeling their upcoming 4070 as a 4080 to confuse and scam their customers. I see AMD building comparable GPU products modularly for less than half the cost on TSMC's 5-6nm processes. I see AMD is poised to compete on performance while delivering huge efficiency and cost wins. Most of all I see that NVDAs stock price was built on a foundation of sand during a GPU cryptomining boom that propelled them to a P/E over 70 on the idea that it would last forever when it may well be gone forever (or at least a few years) as Ethereum has moved to Proof of Stake. The stock has already dropped by half, but since the earnings took a small beating the P/E remains over 40 while earnings are poised to fall off a cliff for the next year or 2.
TLDR: A perfect storm of terrible silicon market conditions, the death of GPU cryptomining, competition, and potentially an economic downturn will be piledriving NVDA to 60, if not 30 as their earnings experience some major shrinkage. It may take a few quarters of terrible revenue numbers before the market catches on though.
I'm not looking at support levels or head and shoulders patterns or anything like that. I see Ethereum mining is gone, and with it GPU mining is now done at a loss and only in shitcoins. I see miners mass selling the stock of GPUs they've been buying for the last 2 years. I see Nvidia delaying their new GPU product launch to unload their stock of old product before it becomes worthless (they have a year's worth to dispose of!). I see Nvidia trying to get out of their allocation contract with TSMC because they ordered far too much (highly expensive) 4nm capacity as part of the silicon shortage bullwhip. I see EVGA, Nvidia's preferred partner cutting ties with Nvidia and exiting GPU assembly immediately before a new product launch due to mistreatment from Nvidia. I see the tech enthusiasts everyone watches for reviews dumping on Nvidia for re-labeling their upcoming 4070 as a 4080 to confuse and scam their customers. I see AMD building comparable GPU products modularly for less than half the cost on TSMC's 5-6nm processes. I see AMD is poised to compete on performance while delivering huge efficiency and cost wins. Most of all I see that NVDAs stock price was built on a foundation of sand during a GPU cryptomining boom that propelled them to a P/E over 70 on the idea that it would last forever when it may well be gone forever (or at least a few years) as Ethereum has moved to Proof of Stake. The stock has already dropped by half, but since the earnings took a small beating the P/E remains over 40 while earnings are poised to fall off a cliff for the next year or 2.
TLDR: A perfect storm of terrible silicon market conditions, the death of GPU cryptomining, competition, and potentially an economic downturn will be piledriving NVDA to 60, if not 30 as their earnings experience some major shrinkage. It may take a few quarters of terrible revenue numbers before the market catches on though.
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