There's a lot of speculation NVDA is overextended and, well I can see their point.
But maybe through the last years we have had waves 1 and 2 of Elliot. Which would mean we're in wave 3 and in wave 3 "Overextended" does not really exist. A super consistent trend is what is the norm.
Wave 3's are incredibly easy trends to follow but a lot of the time in wave 3 people spend more time trying to call the top than follow the trend.
If we're in the Elliot waves, NVDA has a lot more pain to bring to those who want to bet against it.
But maybe through the last years we have had waves 1 and 2 of Elliot. Which would mean we're in wave 3 and in wave 3 "Overextended" does not really exist. A super consistent trend is what is the norm.
Wave 3's are incredibly easy trends to follow but a lot of the time in wave 3 people spend more time trying to call the top than follow the trend.
If we're in the Elliot waves, NVDA has a lot more pain to bring to those who want to bet against it.
Note
If the Elliot thesis is correct, even through NVDA would be expected to go higher overall we'd now be in a short area in 800. Also possible the fully 1000 expansion fails and we're close to a high in NVDA. Either way, I like the 800 area for a short.
Note
A bit over 900 now. I think there's a good chance we're very close to a reversal in this now.
Note
Can make a good bear case now. Granted with the caveats of final spike risk in the event the bear thesis is 'mostly right'. 
Trade closed: target reached
I think this might be the end of the NVDA rally. 
Note
Going to be very shocked if this isn't the end of this rally now. Looks like all stages complete.
We may be inside of a crash event to 3000 in SPX.
Read the full case with backlog of historic analysis/forecasts here: holeyprofitnewsletter.substack.com/p/the-case-for-3000-in-spx
Read the full case with backlog of historic analysis/forecasts here: holeyprofitnewsletter.substack.com/p/the-case-for-3000-in-spx
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
We may be inside of a crash event to 3000 in SPX.
Read the full case with backlog of historic analysis/forecasts here: holeyprofitnewsletter.substack.com/p/the-case-for-3000-in-spx
Read the full case with backlog of historic analysis/forecasts here: holeyprofitnewsletter.substack.com/p/the-case-for-3000-in-spx
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.