NVDA TREND UPDATE
Updated
NVDA, 1D: The linear regression channel on the above chart is illustrative of 4 standard deviations of potential linear price range. 2 standard deviations up, illustrated by the +2SD and 2 standard deviations down as illustrated by the -2SD, along with the linear mean which is labeled LM .
NVDA has fully reverted back to its linear mean ( LM ) in the 131 price region and is currently bouncing just above the mean.
A moderate bounce off the mean up through the 13 day EMA (blue) and below the 65 day SMA (pink), would not be unreasonable to expect after the recent sell off and given the level of oversold we are coming from on the 1 day RSI .
For NVDA to indicate a bullish trend that is capable of te-taking its all time highs (ATH), we would need to see a breach of the 166 price region, which would be a 0.5 Fib retrace back up from the 2021 ATH and which also currently seems unlikely to occur.
It is our position that NVDA is in the 5th and final wave down of its Elliot Wave cycle and will most likely bottom out in the 120-100 range over the course of the next few weeks.
It should be noted that a return to the pre-pandemic highs as illustrated by the horizontal white line in the bottom of the price box, is not out of the question and would fall within 3 standard deviations (only two standard deviations are shown) from the linear mean, making it an improbable but possible occurrence.
Given the liquidity constrained monetary environment, hawkish Fed posture and potential for degrading geo-political relations with China to result in net margin compression, the uncertainty around the future price of NVDA stock is currently high.
When the market perceives uncertainty around the ongoing viability of a particular company’s future revenue streams and the potential for increased production costs appears to be looming on the horizon, the bid/ask spreads widen which subsequently provides the catalyst for price volatility to ensue as buyers and sellers struggle to agree on price.
In the short term, price action as a result of a liquidity constrained monetary environment, the ensuing market volatility could create rough waters for NVDA. However, 18 months from now, once the market has greater clarity on IP security relations with China and global inflation has begun to cessate, I would be very surprised if NVDA is not back above the $200 price point.
I’m cyclicly bearish on NVDA but secularly bullish over the course of the next few years. This volatility could present ample opportunity for my longer term NVDA position holds.
(NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE)
NVDA has fully reverted back to its linear mean ( LM ) in the 131 price region and is currently bouncing just above the mean.
A moderate bounce off the mean up through the 13 day EMA (blue) and below the 65 day SMA (pink), would not be unreasonable to expect after the recent sell off and given the level of oversold we are coming from on the 1 day RSI .
For NVDA to indicate a bullish trend that is capable of te-taking its all time highs (ATH), we would need to see a breach of the 166 price region, which would be a 0.5 Fib retrace back up from the 2021 ATH and which also currently seems unlikely to occur.
It is our position that NVDA is in the 5th and final wave down of its Elliot Wave cycle and will most likely bottom out in the 120-100 range over the course of the next few weeks.
It should be noted that a return to the pre-pandemic highs as illustrated by the horizontal white line in the bottom of the price box, is not out of the question and would fall within 3 standard deviations (only two standard deviations are shown) from the linear mean, making it an improbable but possible occurrence.
Given the liquidity constrained monetary environment, hawkish Fed posture and potential for degrading geo-political relations with China to result in net margin compression, the uncertainty around the future price of NVDA stock is currently high.
When the market perceives uncertainty around the ongoing viability of a particular company’s future revenue streams and the potential for increased production costs appears to be looming on the horizon, the bid/ask spreads widen which subsequently provides the catalyst for price volatility to ensue as buyers and sellers struggle to agree on price.
In the short term, price action as a result of a liquidity constrained monetary environment, the ensuing market volatility could create rough waters for NVDA. However, 18 months from now, once the market has greater clarity on IP security relations with China and global inflation has begun to cessate, I would be very surprised if NVDA is not back above the $200 price point.
I’m cyclicly bearish on NVDA but secularly bullish over the course of the next few years. This volatility could present ample opportunity for my longer term NVDA position holds.
(NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE)
Note
Approaching our target in the 120-100 range!Note
TARGET HIT!!!!Trade closed: target reached
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