Hey all, I wanted to make this post ahead of NVDA's earnings report August 24. I think there is a very strong possibility it falls hard on earnings. They've already issued a warning of sorts that they will miss by an impressive margin, and the stock just hasn't reacted accordingly. I'm currently up only 2-3% on my NVDA short position, and normally, I'm uncomfortable holding through earnings for companies as volatile as NVDA. That being said, this sector looks terrible; if you look at the large market-cap companies within the semiconductor sector, their charts look the worst of any. When I look at NVDA's chart, I can't help but look below. Now that fundamental factors are starting to work against semiconductors and companies like NVDA, I think this thing is ready for the next leg lower; I rarely look for catalysts in my trading, but I think NVDA has all the makings of a possible earnings dumper. I've circled points in the chart that I think are reminiscent of where NVDA is now- the 2000 bubble & 2008 crash. If anything, 2008 looks more similar to what is happening right now, and NVDA had a 40% or so fall from grace at a similar turning point in its chart off of earnings. I'm not calling for a 40% earnings drop, but a double-percent drop on earnings is about what I'm expecting. I think NVDA sees pre-pandemic levels by year-end.
I'm sort of making this as an I-told-you-so if NVDA does fall on earnings, but I'm not heavily leveraged in this position. I am playing this with responsible size, and am more so playing this indirectly through other semiconductor shorts(which I am very invested in percentage-wise)-AMAT, SMH, AMD(less so), etc. Even if it doesn't have a collapse as I think it may on earnings, I think it'll happen on its own not long afterwards.
I'm sort of making this as an I-told-you-so if NVDA does fall on earnings, but I'm not heavily leveraged in this position. I am playing this with responsible size, and am more so playing this indirectly through other semiconductor shorts(which I am very invested in percentage-wise)-AMAT, SMH, AMD(less so), etc. Even if it doesn't have a collapse as I think it may on earnings, I think it'll happen on its own not long afterwards.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.