K2 and K3 is a strong bullish up-engulfing pattern with an up gap. But K3 is not strong enough to close upon the neck line. And the supply pressure at K3 is still at high level. So, I don’t think K3 will reverse the newly born short-term downtrend immediately. It needs more signals to verify it. It is a good place to decrease long positions at K3 or 0.5Fib area to avoid the potential price correction.
On the other hand, The decreased volume means the supply pressure is decreasing. It is an early signal that the short-term downtrend had been interrupted by K3. Perhaps it will consolidate for days and then choose to price up or fall down. In the long term, it is still a bull market.
Note
After the bullish candle K2, K3 still failed to close upon the neck line. The bullish momentum had been interupted here. The decreasing volume also verified the short-term downtrend. It seems that the market lost orientation here.
If K4 still stand upon 125USD or even close upon 130 USD, it will keep pricing up. If K4 close below K3, the risk will increase.
Note
K3 is a second test to the potential support, The supply pressure or demand sharply decreased. It seems that the following candles will choose an orientation to break up or fall down.
It is a first good signal for the bull market. If the following candles has an up gap or even close upon K3 immediately, It is a good place to buy it there.
If the following candles has an bear gap or even close below K3 immediately, The risk will increase.
Long-124/Stop-120/Target-140
Note
K3 is a second test to the potential resistance, The supply pressure increased. It seems that the following candles will fall to test the lower price of K0 or the lower limit of the potential downtrend channel.
I was expecting K3 to close upon K2, But unfortunately, I was wrong. I have to decrease my long positions to avoid the potential price correction.
If the following candles has an up gap or even close upon K3 immediately, It is a good place to buy it there.
If the following candles has an bear gap or even close below K3 immediately, The risk will increase.
Note
K1 and K2 is a bearish dark-cloud cover pattern under increased supply pressure. K3 verified the newly born downtrend with a bear gap and inceasing volume. It seems that the following candles will keep falling to test the nearest potential support.
The potential support at the 0.382-0.5fib area. It is a valuable area to increase long-term positions there if the following candles couldn’t close below K0 or the support. If K4 close below the support, The risk will increase.
Note
After K3 tested the resistance for a second time, K4 failed to close below K3. It seems that K5 will test the resistance for a third time.
If the following candles close upon the resistance, It will be a good place to buy in. If not, It is still possible that the following candles fall to test 110USD area.
Note
K2 is a bullish hammer candle, But unfortunately, K3 denied it with a bear gap. The bullish hammer turned to be a potential bearish hang-man pattern. It seems that the following candles will choose to break up or fall down.
If the bear force want to expand, The supply pressure must increase. But unfortunately, the supply here had dropped to the lowest level. If K4 close upon K2 immediately, It will be a good place to buy in.
If the following candles fall to test 0.5-0.618fib area and find enough demands there, It will be also a good place to buy it.
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