NVDA: Short of the Century (Update)
Updated
We reached the much anticipated .786 fibonacci retracementlevel @ ~$296 today. I know general consensus says that we should
at least see the round number of $300 and possibly an overshoot to~$311. Although it is definitely possible, I do not see any significant
opportunity outside of short positioning. Whether it keeps rolling or not,I continue to build a Put Contract Short Position. As soon as
the market shows any significant signs of weakness to the downside, implied volatility will shoot through the roof and 2024 Put
Contracts will be exponentially more expensive. So in light of my confidence in the ultimate downfall of NVDAs stock price I have
been short positioning and will continue to until momentum shifts to the downside and start looking to offload those contracts.
Options in general and especially Put buying has dropped off a cliff, relative to how many contracts were being bought a month
ago. This is another good sign, pointing to NVDA reaching its local high and the shift in trend nearly cemented in. Debt ceiling issues
will most likely be the catalyst in the short term but I will be looking out for trouble with China that becomes the real nail in the coffin.
at least see the round number of $300 and possibly an overshoot to~$311. Although it is definitely possible, I do not see any significant
opportunity outside of short positioning. Whether it keeps rolling or not,I continue to build a Put Contract Short Position. As soon as
the market shows any significant signs of weakness to the downside, implied volatility will shoot through the roof and 2024 Put
Contracts will be exponentially more expensive. So in light of my confidence in the ultimate downfall of NVDAs stock price I have
been short positioning and will continue to until momentum shifts to the downside and start looking to offload those contracts.
Options in general and especially Put buying has dropped off a cliff, relative to how many contracts were being bought a month
ago. This is another good sign, pointing to NVDA reaching its local high and the shift in trend nearly cemented in. Debt ceiling issues
will most likely be the catalyst in the short term but I will be looking out for trouble with China that becomes the real nail in the coffin.
Note
So NVDA has decided to overshoot the .786 fib target and keep on going. Almost like a blow off top or something, the bigger and the more irrational the move up, the more violent and devastating the trip back down to Earth will be. The Downside targets stay the same but the higher it goes, the cheaper they get. Although I have noticed that upward price action has started to not really effect the price of Puts now, which is definitely a sign that we are very close to the inevitable conclusion of the epic and irrational NVDA dead cat rally.Note
Side Note: A single trader or entity bought over 72000 $392 Put contracts on SPY for over 32 million today. it's coming. it's close.... real close.Note
NVDA market cap surpassed Berkshire today lol. better jump in before it leaves me behind. I guess I was wrong we must be starting a new bullrun after all... my bad lol.Note
looks like NVDA will most likely double top or make a new high, a scenario I lay out in more recent posts. this does not change a thing. Check out my inverted NMVDA chart and then tell me you are still bullish.Note
Was trying to find the comment that suggested the .886 fib retracement because as of right now they bare right on the money. I believe we could have seen the top but I am not ignorant to the fact the this rally has a lot of steam behind it and we could see a rally that prints a new ATH. Even if that happens it does not change my analysis because my time horizon is to buy Puts Jan to June 2024. I primarily swing trade, so I am looking for opportunities in larger timeframe trend shifts. I have a feeling that earnings and debt ceiling nonsense could be the perfect catalysts to send this much lower, much faster, than most of us could anticipate. Recent price action is insane and nobody can honestly justify it and the resulting market cap. It makes no sense and it is a recipe for a major pendulum swing in the opposite direction, in due time. Good luck out there, whether you are a bull or a bear. I just like to see people make money and in this case, the risk to reward ratio is far more attractive to the downside.Note
Nothing Changes. I addressed NVDA potentially making a higher high in my Bitcoin comparison chart. It could just "gap n crap," it could hit $408 or whatever it was but either way, I don't care what happens because the economy is headed for a brick wall. The one way that this could be justified is that this is the reason for the economy heading for a brick wall, we've reached singularity in the few months since the internet started playing with chatgpt and millions are about to be jobless. Im betting this is going to result in the most amazing moon boy rug pull since King Douche SBF, which FYI I did not loose a dime because I didn't trust that freakshow from the beginning... Just like I don't trust this rally. If you held or are holding still, congratulations. If you are holding Puts, buy more because a company does not add a quarter of a trillion dollars in a single day based on shitty earnings, which they were if you actually looked into them and the outlook of an 11 billion dollar 3rd quarter, if it happens, still does not justify this insanity. I think we are going to see a monumental smack down from an unpredictable catalyst or maybe just the really predictable ones lol... debt ceiling, fed, inflation, china tensions, recession. We will see.Note
NVDA forward P/E ratio is now trading around 100x earnings, if not more.Note
NVDA was the 5th largest company in the United States this morning and this afternoon, in after hours, it has potentially surpassed AMZN as the 4TH largest U.S. company.Note
Look I am not convinced that this isn't playing out exactly as I suspected. I promise I will concede but only after I see how this plays out over the weekend. I am very interested in seeing the weekly and monthly candles print. Already some insider selling but nothing too consequential yet. But if I wanted to dump, I would make the market feel nice and comfortable until this coming weekend and unload while most everyone else cannot do anything in response until market open on Monday. This is the last weekend of the month so it is the last chance. You all might be right, the new AI bull has arrived but until I see how things play out between now and Monday, I am just not convinced. Honestly, I hope you all are right because my outlook is pretty bleak at this point and it sounds like a lot more people will lose money if I am right than if I am wrong. Until then...Note
maybe just take a look at this chart before going into the weekend.
Note
NVDA Earnings Net Revenue Down -13% year-on-year
Net Income Down -21% year-on-year
Data Center
First-quarter revenue was a record $4.28 billion, up +14% from a year ago
Gaming
First-quarter revenue was $2.24 billion, down -38% from a year ago
Professional Visualization
First-quarter revenue was $295 million, down -53% from a year ago
Note
This weekend should be interesting. Posted some highlights from NVDAs earnings, some of which definitely were not in the headlines.Note
As of today, price held nicely. Weekly candle should be solid. I am interested in that and the monthly. But so far it is looking that it might hold up and if so, congrats to everyone in still. I am down big, obviously and that's okay. Again, most of my positions do not expire until later this year and into next so I have hope that they can turn around for me between now and then. But you win some, you lose some.Note
HUANG JEN HSUN President and CEO Dec 13 Option Exercise 4.00 237,500 950,000 7,782,991 Dec 14 06:29 PMHUANG JEN HSUN President and CEO Dec 08 Option Exercise 4.00 237,500 950,000 7,545,491 Dec 09 05:29 PM
HUANG JEN HSUN President and CEO Nov 29 Option Exercise 3.15 490,897 1,548,780 7,307,991 Dec 01 05:36 PM
HUANG JEN HSUN President and CEO Nov 21 Option Exercise 3.15 229,603 724,397 6,817,094 Nov 22 04:22 PM
Note
Thank you to the commenter Amaloyz for this information:\sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000104581023000095/nvidia-2023formsx3a.htm
I don't want to say I told you so but my intuition was screaming that something did not smell right about this whole situation and the implications of the reality of this move by CEO Jen Sun Huang are really going to be a bummer for a lot of people who trusted him unfortunately. Going to be very anxious to see what happens opening Monday.
Note
It'll probably take a minute to play out but I loaded up on Puts on Thursday, while they were 90% down and as everyone was buying Calls. This is going to be insane. Thank God I stuck to my guns and didn't drink the AI moon boy propaganda cool-aid. Abandon Ship... lol!Note
Ten-year return of select stocksMay 26, 2013 - May 26, 2023
NVIDIA +10,614.2%
Tesla +2,884.7%
Apple +1,003.5%
Meta PlatformS +977.8%
Microsoft +871.4%
Amazon.com +817.8%
UnitedHealth +675.9%
Alphabet +470.2%
Visa +398.8%
Berkshire Hathaway +189.3%
S&P 500 +154.94%
Note
Have to Recommend the latest video from: Youtube Channel
The Maverick of Wallstreet
Is NVDA lying about earning?
youtu.be/V1_MeykNYBo
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Kress Colette EVP & Chief Financial Officer May 30 Sale 406.51 6,124 2,489,468 538,745 Jun 01 04:36 PMCOXE TENCH Director May 26 Sale 379.00 100,000 37,900,000 3,397,136 May 31 06:26 PM
Drell Persis Director May 26 Sale 386.03 7,800 3,011,042 35,478 May 31 05:20 PM
Shoquist Debora EVP, Operations May 18 Sale 305.00 23,084 7,040,620 139,860 May 22 04:35 PM
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JONES HARVEY C (Director) June 13th Sale $403.17 Shares Sold 119,795 for amount of $48,297,293 June 14th @ 04:54 PM
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