First off, if you're shorting NVDA here and now, I really hope you're right and manage to nail a nice correction. I'm desperate to increase my exposure at lower prices; missed many good entries, while becoming more and more convinced of my intermediate and long term targets. Before elaborating on those, I will say that the hourly 3-month chart of NVDA looks a lot like AMZN's "stairway to heaven" structure (see my other post on that), BUT here it's getting a lot messier lately, and Thursday's surge, while technically constituing a bullish breakout of a small daily rising triangle (target 411), leaves me leery nontheless. Prices closed well off session highs, creating a potential evening star doji candle, which by my rules disqualifies the breakout unless followed by a more convincing positive close. (You'll have to change the chart to daily candlesticks and zoom in on the last 3-4 months to see what I mean).
Now for the upside projections, 434 is the highest possible target of the beautiful inverted H&S that was formed between 2/19 and 5/1: note how the left shoulder bounced off the 50 ema, the head was the result of 6 days of savage hammering of the 200 dma AND 5 year rising channel support, while the double right shoulders established the 20 dma as strong steady support and reliable trend indicator for the last 3 months. You may argue that one should use the stricter and more hortodox 372 target for this H&S, instead of messing with double-right shoulders readings and such; but that 372 level has been pierced several times now, and given the overall strenght and the fact that we're still in the lower half of the 5 year rising channel, I'd say some elasticity and optimism with breakout targets is justified. Extend the chart to the left up to July 2015 to see how rising channel support has been tested 6 times so far, including the "savage hammering" last March: not ONE daily close below support in FIVE years! This channel is the real deal IMO, and it has sooo much room to the upside, IN DUE TIME.
505 is the highest possible target (derived from the highest daily beakout levels) of the big Cup & Handle formation that I've highlighted in black: it's far from a perfect cup, but it' s happening inside of a very strong 5 year uptrend; the "handle" happens to coincide with the above-mentioned bullish inverse H&S, and no matter how you cut it, we've broken out of it with an immediate backtest and powerful bounce on the first week of May... and that's THE best kind of breakout you'll ever see.
Full disclosure: currently long NVDA with 1.3% of total assets, an unfortunate result of taking profits on half of my original position on April 27. Felt good for one week, then very sorry for the last 2 months. Could not force myself to buy back at higher prices, despite ALL evidence telling me to do so. Hoping and waiting for a decent drop to some obvious support level, like e.g. the 50 ema around 345-350... Moving averages are rising FAST on this one, and everyone wants in. I'm targeting a 2.5% final allocation; would gladly bump it up to 3% on a drop to 315 - 323. Which is probably just wishful thinking. Please let me know if all this blabber was in some way helpful\interesting to you. Thank you, stay safe.
Now for the upside projections, 434 is the highest possible target of the beautiful inverted H&S that was formed between 2/19 and 5/1: note how the left shoulder bounced off the 50 ema, the head was the result of 6 days of savage hammering of the 200 dma AND 5 year rising channel support, while the double right shoulders established the 20 dma as strong steady support and reliable trend indicator for the last 3 months. You may argue that one should use the stricter and more hortodox 372 target for this H&S, instead of messing with double-right shoulders readings and such; but that 372 level has been pierced several times now, and given the overall strenght and the fact that we're still in the lower half of the 5 year rising channel, I'd say some elasticity and optimism with breakout targets is justified. Extend the chart to the left up to July 2015 to see how rising channel support has been tested 6 times so far, including the "savage hammering" last March: not ONE daily close below support in FIVE years! This channel is the real deal IMO, and it has sooo much room to the upside, IN DUE TIME.
505 is the highest possible target (derived from the highest daily beakout levels) of the big Cup & Handle formation that I've highlighted in black: it's far from a perfect cup, but it' s happening inside of a very strong 5 year uptrend; the "handle" happens to coincide with the above-mentioned bullish inverse H&S, and no matter how you cut it, we've broken out of it with an immediate backtest and powerful bounce on the first week of May... and that's THE best kind of breakout you'll ever see.
Full disclosure: currently long NVDA with 1.3% of total assets, an unfortunate result of taking profits on half of my original position on April 27. Felt good for one week, then very sorry for the last 2 months. Could not force myself to buy back at higher prices, despite ALL evidence telling me to do so. Hoping and waiting for a decent drop to some obvious support level, like e.g. the 50 ema around 345-350... Moving averages are rising FAST on this one, and everyone wants in. I'm targeting a 2.5% final allocation; would gladly bump it up to 3% on a drop to 315 - 323. Which is probably just wishful thinking. Please let me know if all this blabber was in some way helpful\interesting to you. Thank you, stay safe.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.