NVDA Trend Update
Updated
The linear regression channel on the above chart is illustrative of 4 standard deviations of potential linear price range. 2 standard deviations up, illustrated by the +2SD and 2 standard deviations down as illustrated by the -2SD along with the linear mean which is labeled LM.
NVDA has fully reverted back to its linear mean (LM) in the 131 price region.
A moderate bounce off the mean up through the 13 day EMA (blue) and below the 65 day SMA (pink), would not be unreasonable to expect after the recent sell off and given the level of oversold on the 1 day RSI.
For NVDA to indicate a bullish trend capable of taking out its all time highs (ATH), we would need to see a breach of the 166 price region, which would be a retrace of the 0.5 Fib from ATH and which also currently seems unlikely to occur.
It is our position that NVDA is in the 5th and final wave down of its Elliot Wave cycle and will most likely bottom out in the 120-100 range over the course of the next few weeks.
It should be noted that a return to the pre-pandemic highs as illustrated by the horizontal white line in the bottom of the price box, is not out of the question and would fall within 3 standard deviations (only two standard deviations are shown) from the linear mean, making it an improbable but possible occurrence.
Given the liquidity constrained monetary environment, hawkish Fed posture and potential for degrading geo-political relations with China to result in net margin compression, the uncertainty around the future price of NVDA stock is currently high. When the market perceives uncertainty around the ongoing viability of a particular company’s future revenue streams and the potential for increased production costs appears to be looming on the horizon, the bid/ask spreads widen which subsequently provides the catalyst for price volatility to ensue as buyers and sellers struggle to agree on price.
(NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE)
NVDA has fully reverted back to its linear mean (LM) in the 131 price region.
A moderate bounce off the mean up through the 13 day EMA (blue) and below the 65 day SMA (pink), would not be unreasonable to expect after the recent sell off and given the level of oversold on the 1 day RSI.
For NVDA to indicate a bullish trend capable of taking out its all time highs (ATH), we would need to see a breach of the 166 price region, which would be a retrace of the 0.5 Fib from ATH and which also currently seems unlikely to occur.
It is our position that NVDA is in the 5th and final wave down of its Elliot Wave cycle and will most likely bottom out in the 120-100 range over the course of the next few weeks.
It should be noted that a return to the pre-pandemic highs as illustrated by the horizontal white line in the bottom of the price box, is not out of the question and would fall within 3 standard deviations (only two standard deviations are shown) from the linear mean, making it an improbable but possible occurrence.
Given the liquidity constrained monetary environment, hawkish Fed posture and potential for degrading geo-political relations with China to result in net margin compression, the uncertainty around the future price of NVDA stock is currently high. When the market perceives uncertainty around the ongoing viability of a particular company’s future revenue streams and the potential for increased production costs appears to be looming on the horizon, the bid/ask spreads widen which subsequently provides the catalyst for price volatility to ensue as buyers and sellers struggle to agree on price.
(NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE)
Note
apologies, accidentally posted with letter box visible will repost. Still figuring out how to delete former posts.
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