NVDA: Last week of April
Updated
Oh NVDA, NVDA and its tricks.
What a disaster stock, but I still trade it daily.
Let's go over what to expect next week:
There is an immediate setup on the chart for a bullish continuation up. However, its minor and just saying that we will snag up to 883:
That is with extended hours turned off.
Extended hours really just makes a mess out of things based on how we closed.
There is no clear setup unless we look at the 4 hour where we can see the start of a bullish formation with a TP of 883 again.
So it seems the 883 will be our go to into Monday. Usually we break a bit over, so we will likely see a move past 883.
In terms of the math numbers:
LSTM is quite bearish on the weekly data, saying that it thinks top is at 883 (yeah, this 883 is being thrown around a lot between the chart setup and the math projections haha). With a low of 764.
ARIMA from a weekly perspective is actually surprisingly bearish too, saying that its topped here. Its likely the fact that NVDA is not normally distributed on the weekly timeframe that is causing this so if we flip down to the daily timeframe, isolate for normal distribution data only, ARIMA essentially says this:
High 95% for the week is 984 (meaning, 95% chance we will not close above 984 next week).
High 80% for the week is 974, meaning an 80% chance we close the week below 974.
TO the downside, the key level is actually our LSTM level of 764. That is around the 80% confidence (80% chance we close above 764).
Some concerns:
SPY has a bearish setup. Now it is possible it invalidates this into Monday but as of now SPY is set to sell down to 500. NVDA does well to push off SPY's bearishness SOMETIMES, but not always. So watch out for that and watch out for NVDA potentially leading the sell on SPY haha. NVDA is pretty precarious, it does these whipsaw moves up, only to grind right back down again.
The bigger picture for NVDA was a correction back to the 600s and even lower. However, if NVDA in its stans pump it up to new ATHs, we will have successfully invalidated the larger bearish setup we are seeing play out currently. IF you remember a couple of ideas back, I indicated we printed a confirmation candle on the weekly bearish setup, which would bring us sub 700. SO we are still operating within that setup. But if we get pulled back and break the ATH, the setup target price is invalidated.
The other concern is, for the most part, market is still ignoring bad news. So yeah, its a problem. Earnings next month but like towards the end of the month, so not an immediate concern.
What it all means and verdict:
Look for 883 and slightly above into Monday.
If NVDA rallies Monday and surpasses 883 and holds, its a long into the week to the high targets in the chart.
If we reject anywhere at 883 or above and crash down below 883, we will likely see this sell down to the 850s.
My personal bias is, it should be bearish. Its pushing awfully close to invalidate a really great weekly setup.
Probability for Monday is neutral to bearish.
NVDA is such a wild card, I always suggest just take it day by day.
If we do have a hold of above 883 its probably safe to swing a bit, but with the market is in such a disarray right now (bearish setups on some major things, bullish on others), its quite difficult to really promote a swining mentality.
All I see is a ton of bad news and an obstinate marking flailing its arms around saying "NEEEOOOWW, I WILL NEVER GO DOWN, YOU CAN'T MAKE ME!"
And for that reason, I will continue to just day trade this trainwreck haha.
Safe trades!
What a disaster stock, but I still trade it daily.
Let's go over what to expect next week:
There is an immediate setup on the chart for a bullish continuation up. However, its minor and just saying that we will snag up to 883:
That is with extended hours turned off.
Extended hours really just makes a mess out of things based on how we closed.
There is no clear setup unless we look at the 4 hour where we can see the start of a bullish formation with a TP of 883 again.
So it seems the 883 will be our go to into Monday. Usually we break a bit over, so we will likely see a move past 883.
In terms of the math numbers:
LSTM is quite bearish on the weekly data, saying that it thinks top is at 883 (yeah, this 883 is being thrown around a lot between the chart setup and the math projections haha). With a low of 764.
ARIMA from a weekly perspective is actually surprisingly bearish too, saying that its topped here. Its likely the fact that NVDA is not normally distributed on the weekly timeframe that is causing this so if we flip down to the daily timeframe, isolate for normal distribution data only, ARIMA essentially says this:
High 95% for the week is 984 (meaning, 95% chance we will not close above 984 next week).
High 80% for the week is 974, meaning an 80% chance we close the week below 974.
TO the downside, the key level is actually our LSTM level of 764. That is around the 80% confidence (80% chance we close above 764).
Some concerns:
SPY has a bearish setup. Now it is possible it invalidates this into Monday but as of now SPY is set to sell down to 500. NVDA does well to push off SPY's bearishness SOMETIMES, but not always. So watch out for that and watch out for NVDA potentially leading the sell on SPY haha. NVDA is pretty precarious, it does these whipsaw moves up, only to grind right back down again.
The bigger picture for NVDA was a correction back to the 600s and even lower. However, if NVDA in its stans pump it up to new ATHs, we will have successfully invalidated the larger bearish setup we are seeing play out currently. IF you remember a couple of ideas back, I indicated we printed a confirmation candle on the weekly bearish setup, which would bring us sub 700. SO we are still operating within that setup. But if we get pulled back and break the ATH, the setup target price is invalidated.
The other concern is, for the most part, market is still ignoring bad news. So yeah, its a problem. Earnings next month but like towards the end of the month, so not an immediate concern.
What it all means and verdict:
Look for 883 and slightly above into Monday.
If NVDA rallies Monday and surpasses 883 and holds, its a long into the week to the high targets in the chart.
If we reject anywhere at 883 or above and crash down below 883, we will likely see this sell down to the 850s.
My personal bias is, it should be bearish. Its pushing awfully close to invalidate a really great weekly setup.
Probability for Monday is neutral to bearish.
NVDA is such a wild card, I always suggest just take it day by day.
If we do have a hold of above 883 its probably safe to swing a bit, but with the market is in such a disarray right now (bearish setups on some major things, bullish on others), its quite difficult to really promote a swining mentality.
All I see is a ton of bad news and an obstinate marking flailing its arms around saying "NEEEOOOWW, I WILL NEVER GO DOWN, YOU CAN'T MAKE ME!"
And for that reason, I will continue to just day trade this trainwreck haha.
Safe trades!
Note
Oh baby that's what I like!Right to the targets! NVDA wastes no time, it just goes!
Haha, love that for NVDA, so anyway from here, now that we snagged my low targets within the first 5 minutes of open, I would be playing a bounce back to the threshold min.
Note
Just as a reminder, threshold starts at 875 and extends up to 878 (bullish condition).Note
NVDA is moving really quickly this Monday,We had a sell right down to the low range and then bounce right up to the threshold range:
That was like my whole week analysis in under 3 hours lol.... disaster.
Not sure what happens next, but with the fundamental catalysts coming up this week it will sure be a wild ride.
Note
Okay, so now that we have closed and we got my 850s Target, from here I anticipate a move back up towards 930.There is a technical setup for a breach over 885.
If FOMC is a positive thing we are going to head right for 930.
Happy with that, just happy we got my bearish targets haha.
Safe trades everyone!
Note
NVDA's larger bearish setup is still holding out as true here.We'll see what FOMC brings, but as of now its remaining true to the original bearish setup.
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