a weekly price action market recap and outlook - nvidia #5
Good day and I hope you are well.
Last time I talked about Nvidia was 2024-06-08 and Nvidia was at 120.8 and my targets were 130/140. We are after the stock split so it's time for an update.
comment: Please check out my nvidia #4 post, to see how accurate it was. I wrote that once the W5 or third push up is done, we will see a 10-20 bars sideways to down correction. Since the first leg of the correction made 16% down, we can expect a second one, which would bring us to around 100$ (weekly 20ema is also there), which is an obvious magnet. There bulls can decide if they want to continue the bubble.
current market cycle: If we break below 114, we are probably forming a trading range between 100 - 140. If bulls buy this up again, bull trend continues.
key levels: 114 - 140
bull case: Everything as long as most bull trends hold. The big bull trend line is currently around 95 and bulls do not want a pullback that deep. They want this bubble to infinity and staying above the daily 20ema is crucial to do so. If they fail here, we will see 100$ soon. Having said all that again, it's a bubble and it will deflate. Maybe it already started and stock won't trade above 130 again for a long time. No one knows but the probable thing is a pullback to the weekly 20ema/100$ before market wants a retest of the ath. That can fail or even make a higher high before turning again.
Invalidation is below 100.
bear case: Parabolic wedge top broke to the downside but bulls still have 3 more bull trend lines as support. Bears are happy for now that they trapped all the bulls who bought above 130 and most stops will run around 115-118. Bears ultimately want to test the big bull trend line and the 100$ price. Thats a 40% drop and I wrote many times, that this stock will half again. Bears see the recent drop as strong enough for a second leg and the current trading range as a two legged sideways to up correction, which they want to break below from.
Invalidation is above 130.
short term: All bull targets are met and the ath will probably be tested. It's unsure if we get a second leg down first or after the retest. I slightly give it to the bears to push down to at least 117ish since the past days nasdaq & sp500 made new ath's while nvidia held below 130. Trapped bulls who bought above 130 will give up below 119 latest.
medium-long term: Over the next 6 months we should see the 1000 price area again and 6-18 months we most likely will see 800-900 again. --unchanged
current swing trade: Waiting for weakness on Monday and if bulls can't trade it back up, will do long term shorts for 100$.
Last time I talked about Nvidia was 2024-06-08 and Nvidia was at 120.8 and my targets were 130/140. We are after the stock split so it's time for an update.
comment: Please check out my nvidia #4 post, to see how accurate it was. I wrote that once the W5 or third push up is done, we will see a 10-20 bars sideways to down correction. Since the first leg of the correction made 16% down, we can expect a second one, which would bring us to around 100$ (weekly 20ema is also there), which is an obvious magnet. There bulls can decide if they want to continue the bubble.
current market cycle: If we break below 114, we are probably forming a trading range between 100 - 140. If bulls buy this up again, bull trend continues.
key levels: 114 - 140
bull case: Everything as long as most bull trends hold. The big bull trend line is currently around 95 and bulls do not want a pullback that deep. They want this bubble to infinity and staying above the daily 20ema is crucial to do so. If they fail here, we will see 100$ soon. Having said all that again, it's a bubble and it will deflate. Maybe it already started and stock won't trade above 130 again for a long time. No one knows but the probable thing is a pullback to the weekly 20ema/100$ before market wants a retest of the ath. That can fail or even make a higher high before turning again.
Invalidation is below 100.
bear case: Parabolic wedge top broke to the downside but bulls still have 3 more bull trend lines as support. Bears are happy for now that they trapped all the bulls who bought above 130 and most stops will run around 115-118. Bears ultimately want to test the big bull trend line and the 100$ price. Thats a 40% drop and I wrote many times, that this stock will half again. Bears see the recent drop as strong enough for a second leg and the current trading range as a two legged sideways to up correction, which they want to break below from.
Invalidation is above 130.
short term: All bull targets are met and the ath will probably be tested. It's unsure if we get a second leg down first or after the retest. I slightly give it to the bears to push down to at least 117ish since the past days nasdaq & sp500 made new ath's while nvidia held below 130. Trapped bulls who bought above 130 will give up below 119 latest.
medium-long term: Over the next 6 months we should see the 1000 price area again and 6-18 months we most likely will see 800-900 again. --unchanged
current swing trade: Waiting for weakness on Monday and if bulls can't trade it back up, will do long term shorts for 100$.
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