Short

Top is in for NVIDIA

Updated

Regardless of earnings tomorrow, stock goes down.

I would imagine the earnings will be great, which will provide a ton of exit liquidity to the makers of this market.

Anyway, this candlestick pattern is called DARK CLOUD COVER.

the context here is fantastic, I feel very confident in this outcome.

How low does she go? lets figure that out later.

This reminds me of apple earnings, regardless of outcome, it was going down down down.

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Additionally, weekly macd averages crossing

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This is a great short, at 468.75 IMO

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LIkely going to get some hate on this one, but fact is, that anyone that is still holding this stock from bottom to top is a moron.

You got lucky and rolled the dice a few percent higher. Its probably going to be below the short entry by market open tomorrow.

You wont even get a chance to sell after hours to abuse the good earnings.

irrational bubbles can remain irrational for quite some time sure, but were closer to top than bottom and thats going to age like fine wine.

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Seriously ask yourself, who woke up today and said I am going to buy nvidia at 500 dollars thats a great idea, after not buying at 100 200 300 400?

theres a certain demographic which chases garbage like this.

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Its just going to erase this entire scam pump exit liquidity... was at 519 last night.... Makes me sick.

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AI will go down in history as the largest miss allocation of capital ever.

The only winner will be NVIDIA, as they hoarde the money that these desperate companies give them.

The market is starving for any form of growth narrative, and NVIDIA is sellin it.

Complete scam.

eventuality is that zero market value is added by AI, and NVIDIA cant sell the dream anymore.

back to 70 bucks.

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Like i said. Exit Liquidity.

Get round tripped.

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Ahhhh, its starting to come together now.

Blackrock just did the same pump and dump with bitcoin too....

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So, since it is usually not a straight line down, I would expect that there to be bounces in any of the highlighted areas.

This is simply where other people like me, or you, who use charts, would reasonably be expected to pile up market buys in the same spot.

Since I could be wrong on the bubble popping now, its important to monitor these bounces and make sure they are not turning into a resumption of a bull trend.

Once we start making lower lows below 370, then it becomes a little safer.

For now, there are plenty of places it could reverse and maintain bullish trend.

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BTW, the actual top candle has a name too.

Bearish Marubozu

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Nothing to see here folks, people who don't look at charts are buying the right shoulder.

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The only explanation I have for the ridiculous height of the right shoulder on nvidia, is how the dollar has been acting today.

here we can see it has tested its lower channel, and tomorrow should look quite different for the markets as the dollar rallies.

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I have had many messages asking what is going on.

If catching a top was easy, everyone would do it.

if this is the top, It will test you mentally.

It will have you second guessing yourself constantly.

This does not appear to be a blow off top... that would have given much more certainty. It appears that if this is the top, then it will be a distribution structure.

no telling how long it can take.

Without the risk of being wrong, you cannot be early.

Anyone can wait for the move to be more obvious, but they will be missing the first 1/3 of it, or even 1/2 of it if they want more confirmation.

To be right, at the very top, requires discipline, and can have massive reward.

at the risk of being wrong.

goodnight everyone. lets see what tomorrow brings.

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One last thing I will leave here.

Bitcoin took 11 months to top, and if you sold any of those peaks you would have been happy.

but you would have been tested at the time.

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The reason I have not posted, is that nothing has changed. still in distribution, and the most relevant thing people can look at is the Bitcoin top and how it looked.. So i don't want to burry the most relevant post with anything lesser. so just look right above this comment.

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"take it nice and slow, we dont want to scare the sheep as we exit our entire position."

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ASIDE from nvidia stock being used as a ponzi scheme hideout,

long term yields are on the verge of breaking out again, with blue skies above.

This will not be good for equities.

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You have to be careful, as this channel seems to be respected. We are making a scary candle here for bears. This is not a place you take new shorts, youd be closing shorts and looking to short from higher IMO.

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So we broke through the channel, which is great for bears.

Going forward though, we have to deal with good seasonality for stocks.

The worst of the month is PROBABLY over.

Just be careful out there, as Warren Buffet would say "even the obvious scams are hard to make money shorting"

Sometimes its just best to stay way.

I hold no position here at this point. Would like to see a retest of the channel and a reversal down. A break up into the channel would tell me that the channel is not even regarded as important, and something else is going on here.

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Is that the rejection?

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In my eyes, we have convincingly closed in the channel, and below it was a deviation.

The ridiculousness is likely to continue higher for now...

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Worth considering shorts again IMO.

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People can HIDE in nvidia/aapl all they want, but eventually they get hit like the rest.

The higher this bounces (not making a new high of course) the better risk/reward you get for shorting.

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Erasing the scammy zombie buying that occurred over the past weeks, in one day.

Market has been completely complacent...

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Im sure that nobody was hurt shorting almost the absolute top here...

but the vicious comments i got from "this time is different" folks... yikes. hope u werent all in long...

HEad and shoulders neckline breached...

MikeMM

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