Short

This is the time to try and short

Updated

The last time NVDA had a meteoric exponential rise of 1500%, it had taken only three months to lose over half of its market cap. This coincided with the monthly RSI being severely overbought.

I am proposing we will see the same occur at this level. Not only with the same overbought levels, but nearly double the absolute bottom to top gain we saw from the 2015 era. However, this time we are also at the peak of a trendline on the S&P going back to 1929 when we rejected the 535 level.

I am proposing that Nvidia will see a sharp decline possibly to the 600 level within the coming months.

Position: 4x 9/20/24 800p. 88% of remaining portfolio is in cash waiting for a 25% retracement on all indexes.

Note

Bought two more contracts when we touched 1150. Again still going to November but also opened long positions in dividend stocks in anticipation for a correction

Trade closed manually

I sold my puts for a $650 profit of 8.5% ROI this afternoon. My reasons for doing so were

SPY was hitting a major support level of 518 and I was expecting that a rally could cause Nvidia to shift momentum. The 1090 level was proving resilient, and any move above 1100-1110 would’ve put me in the red and left me bag holding.

I’m glad I did so. The chance that SPY goes to or past ATH is very high next month, and NVDA will more than likely rally last 1150 with this close. I have chosen to revisit the short once we break that level.

I will now be watching for overbought levels on the 4 hr timeframe to occur. I started with $8000 in shorts, but this time I will be revisiting with $3000 but closer ITM <60dte. I expect it will provide a much better ROI/POP if we wait for the split to occur.

Note

Todays movement is a reminder of why I exited the short trade for profit. Would have been nice to get into calls but there was no way of catching more upside based on the technicals-- however the bullish momentum is more of a feeling and based on past experience. Better to avoid it altogether until we can confirm another bollinger band break.

I am eyeing 1250 as the next short target. Until then I will continue making other trades while longs play the hot potato game.

jgdub

Also on:

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.